The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[J. J.]

Here's an easy to read, day by day record of the NV early vote: http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2491

It looks like absentee ballots + two days of early vote has already resulted in 10% of 2008's turnout. That's crazy.

Thanks.  It is running about D +1.1 points over the end numbers in 2008.  It is not too crazy as this was a weekend and a number of people like to get it out of the way. 

[J. J.]

Very strong day for Democrats in North Carolina today, increasing their lead and increasing the black percentage above 30%. The D-R gap is currently 20.2%, compared to the final D+12.6% in 2008.

Judging same day registration from 2008, this week should be the highest week for D's.  They are still running below their 2008 numbers (though that might change).

The R's surged in the last week in 2008. 

[J. J.]

If the Dems have a higher margin than the Rs than last time, but are below their 2008 numbers, does the imply the Rs are also underperforming their '08 numbers, J.J.?

This week, probably not.  Looking at the registrations in 2008 (which would have been the same day registrations), R's came out in early voting in the last week.  The D's will probably have to run up their totals this week.

[J. J.]

I'm not understanding the fuzziness. Either they are or they aren't no? Aside from predictions for next week.

What part of "probably not," don't you understand? 

[J. J.]

Washoe County Nevada.

Nevada's swing county.

Early Vote day 1

Total 9,638

Dems 4,604 (47.77%)
Reps 3,619 (37.54%)
Other 1,415 (14.68%)

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Washoe is in today: 

Party Reg    
Dem    45.7%
Rep    39.1%
None/Oth    15.2%
   


In terms of raw votes, R's outnumbered D's slightly in Monday's vote.  http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

It might be a weekday thing, however.

It is now running 3.8 points above the final 2008 number.  Again, it might be just that more R's come out on weekdays. 

[J. J.]

NC is now R +0.3 points over 2008 final.  D's are now running -9.4 points where they were at this point in time in 2008.  Sorry if some of you find that "fuzziness."   

[J. J.]

NC is now R +0.3 points over 2008 final.  D's are now running -9.4 points where they were at this point in time in 2008.  Sorry if some of you find that "fuzziness."   

No need to apologize, but I don't understand why you'd use one point of time as a reference for the Dems but a different point in time for the Republicans. What's the rationale for that? How are the R's doing compared to this point in time in 2008? How are the D's doing compared to the 2008 final?

That is how they were doing at this point in time.  I doubled checked and at 10/20/08 vhere were the NC numbers:

D 56.3%
R 27.2%

D + 29.1

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1224486000/

Yesterday

D 51.2
R 30.2

D +21.0

It should be an 8.1 point closing (did my math wrong).  That is significant, especially when the D's carried the state by < 0.6. 

This is the time when you get much of the D turnout.  In 2008, R's ended up with 30.2 and D's with 51.4.  http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

This is very bad news for Obama in NC. 

[J. J.]

From what I can tell, there is a higher black voter turnout.  Obama appears to be losing white Democrats in NC, in terms of turnout.  That does not bode well nationally. 

[J. J.]

IA:

Dem    47.3%
Rep    31.3%
None/Oth    21.4%

The R's are running 2 points ahead of the 2008 final.  Applications, as opposed to returned ballots, are running about 3 points lower for the D's than the returned ballot. 

[J. J.]

From what I can tell, there is a higher black voter turnout.  Obama appears to be losing white Democrats in NC, in terms of turnout.  That does not bode well nationally. 

Yes, if Obama can't win the votes of southern whites registered as Democrats, he's utterly screwed in Ohio and Nevada.

He got them to come out for him last time.  And a lot of northerners resemble the southern Democrats in PA, OH, NY (upstate), especially at the CD level.

[J. J.]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

We'd still need a comparison with 2008.  It is currently R +7.

[J. J.]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.  NV is on my "possible" list, but I credited it for Obama, because the polling tended to be off in 2008.  It is possible that Romney could take it. 

[J. J.]

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.

Not by nearly enough for him to win the state.

Like I said, it is flippable, but I still give it to Obama, at this point in time.  I would say Obama by 1-2 points.

[J. J.]

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.

Not by nearly enough for him to win the state.

Like I said, it is flippable, but I still give it to Obama, at this point in time.  I would say Obama by 1-2 points.

How generous of you.

Oh please, JJ.

Obama is going to win NV by 5-6 points.

5-6 points even today is unlikely.  We've been noting the shift in the early voting.

I do find it interesting how much the battleground has shifted on this thread.  We were talking about how NC was going Obama, then IA, now NV. 

[J. J.]

5-6 points is far from unlikely. Jon Ralston was talking about a possible Obama victory of that size just today.

This.

To say Obama will only win NV by 1-2 is a bit of a stretch IMO. Democrats generally under-poll in NV and their ground game is among the best in the country.

Obama won't win by 2008 margins, but he should win by 5-6 points much like Reid did in 2010.

Today the early vote gap in Clark Co. slightly lower than the final in 2008, 0.8 R gain.

Today the early vote gap in Washoe Co. was +4.8 R points than the 2008 final.  These are strong D voters, or were in 2008.  I'm still calling it for Obama, but not by 5-6 points.  I'm also expecting momentum on the Romney side that will lower it further.

[J. J.]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.  NV is on my "possible" list, but I credited it for Obama, because the polling tended to be off in 2008.  It is possible that Romney could take it. 

Registration in Nevada points to a larger victory than that.

It was 44/35.7 D/R in 2008.  It is 41.9/34.7 now.  D -2.1

[J. J.]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

We'd still need a comparison with 2008.  It is currently R +7.

D+2 for the entire EV period.

This extrapolates to about an expected tie in Colorado on election day. Obama won CO by 9 points overall.

Okay, we'll add seven points on to McCain's 44.7% and get Romney 51%.  It is not a good idea to extrapolate.    Especially that way.

[J. J.]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.  NV is on my "possible" list, but I credited it for Obama, because the polling tended to be off in 2008.  It is possible that Romney could take it. 

Registration in Nevada points to a larger victory than that.

It was 44/35.7 D/R in 2008.  It is 41.9/34.7 now.  D -2.1

So Obama wins by 10 points instead of 12. You can play this game as long as you want, but the fundamentals point to moderate Obama victory here. There's a reason people are moving it to lean Obama and the Obama campaign is not putting its new 1 minute closing ad there.

That is just registration, that can show longer term formation of opinions.  Some of the numbers are currently running well ahead of registration. 

Note that I reported the numbers and didn't spin them.

[J. J.]

Democratic precincts at 98% of 2008 turnout is also pretty fantastic. Virginia will be close either way.

If accurate, it is a R +26 point gap over 2008.  About the only places it wouldn't shift a state is HI, RI, and DC. 

[J. J.]

You should invest in a calculator bro. Your math stinks.

No, you apparently don't understand.

If nothing changes it would be R+0/D+0. 

If the D's drop by 2, the D's become D+2.  You see 0 - 2 = -2.  Since the R's are staying the same, it becomes R+2.

R's gain +24.  That is 0+ 24 = +24. 

In this case it is 24 + 2 = +26.

I'm happy to explain negative numbers to you.  You'll have a lot practice using them over the next two weeks. 

[J. J.]

If Republican turnout is 124% of what it was in 2008, and Democratic turnout is 98% of what it was, Romney would win 74 million votes to Obama's 68 million votes. That's far from a nationwide landslide in which Obama would only win three states.

The three states were a joke, however, it wouldn't take into account people voting across party lines.  If this is accurate, and repeated across the country, Obama would basically lose every state that he didn't carry by 60%.

[J. J.]

Iowa Friday:

R: 92072
D: 147234
I: 61833


R: 30.5%
D: 48.8%
I: 20.5%

IA is now:

Dem    47.3%
Rep    31.3%
None/Oth    21.4%
   

[J. J.]

How can that many people be voting none or other?

That is how they are registered. 

[J. J.]

I see Obama is slightly ahead in Jefferson county.  How is Romney going to win CO without Jefferson? Everything else gives you a general idea how the state will turnout.

You really have to do a comparison with 2008, which is lacking in the CO numbers.

I'm happy to explain negative numbers to you.  You'll have a lot practice using them over the next two weeks. 

Have anybody bothered ever explaining, say, statistics to you? This entire discussion is rather frightening, on both sides. Would you, people, mind stopping making fools of yourselves?

Yes, and some of that is why I'm saying you need to comparisons with 2008. 

[J. J.]

Democrats netted another 5000 votes in Clark County today, bringing their lead in the county to 23,000. Nevada continues to slip away.

Clark Co. shows a closing of 2.1 points from 2008 total, so far.  Obama will win early voting across the US, but by greatly reduced numbers.