Handicapping Kansas

[J. J.]

Santorum wins big, likely with an absolute majority.

Majority of the votes, delegates, or both?

[J. J.]

Santorum wins big, likely with an absolute majority.

Majority of the votes, delegates, or both?

Presidential preference poll.

Possible, but at this point under 50%.  I'm interested in the delegates.

[J. J.]

Santorum to break 50%.

Maybe not.  In a word:  Gingrich.

[J. J.]

Kansas is no country for Newt Gingrich. They like Huckabee and Brownback types.

He won't win, and won't even come close, but it could keep Santorum from breaking 50%.

[J. J.]

Santorum to break 50%.

Maybe not.  In a word:  Gingrich.

Gingrich is not competing there at all.

He wasn't competing in OK either.

[J. J.]

Kansas is no country for Newt Gingrich. They like Huckabee and Brownback types.

He won't win, and won't even come close, but it could keep Santorum from breaking 50%.

Huck broke 50% last time. There's no reason Santorum, who's actually running a much stronger campaign, can't do the same.

That was last and there is another conservative to drain support, and at least hold down the delegate count.

[J. J.]

Santorum 54%
Romney 22%
Paul 18%
Gingrich 6%

Santorum wins all four districts and thus all delegates.

Paul is too high.  Gingrich is too low.

[J. J.]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

[J. J.]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

Ya, I pulled that one out of my ass. I thought, well it is a caucus, so how can Paul go much below 10% even in Kansas, and then I thought about the story that Newt had "abandoned" the state, and maybe caucus types tend to be political junkies, and saw the horrible poll news for Newt coming out of Miss and Alabama, and I thought, well if I have to choose between the two, I'm going to go for keeping Paul close to 10%, and screw Newt - at least in KS ... he's dead.

Have I changed your mind? 

No.  Gringrich appeals to some social conservatives and some people remember his from the Speakership.  Further, the news coming out, poll-wise, is not saying Santorum; it is saying Romney.