National Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

We all know that Rassy is going to do this.  It's what he always does.  R+x every week until mid-October and then starts doing real polls the final two weeks.  That way he can sell good polling to Republicans all cycle long and still call himself an accurate pollster on his resume.

Well, first, the comment was about Gallup.  Second, Rasmussen will be switching to likely voters tomorrow.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen 48/47, Obama.

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Obama:  50, +1

Romney: 44, -1

[J. J.]

Not sure what today's movement in Gallup means.. great Obama sample just came on? Good Romney sample dropped off? Who knows.

I'd say that there isn't a drop off.  It looks like 4-6 point lead on Gallup, that is natural.  It is out of the six day cycle.

Right now, I'd predict an Obama victory, of under 310 EV's.

[J. J.]

Honestly, I think FL will go Republican this year. 

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Obama 49, -1

Romney 45, +1

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Obama:  49%

Romney: 47%

Unchanged.

[J. J.]

It's not a joke, but unless they polled everything from 11:00 PM yesterday to 11:30 AM today, it won't get any post poll numbers.

[J. J.]

Also unchanged on Gallup, with Obama 49, Romney 44.

We probably won't the full debate effects, if any, until Monday.

[J. J.]

In other words, it's DebateFail for Romney.

In other words, we don't any post debate numbers.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:  49/47 Obama, unchanged.

[J. J.]

Obama also leads 50 (-1) to 45 (nc) in the battlegrounds according to Scott.

lol mitt sucks

I wouldn't, he's released two state polls that are closer.  Obama could be surging in PA or MI, and falling apart every place else. 

[J. J.]

Reuters/Ipsos has the race narrowing 46-44 in their most recent tracking poll. They don't say if this is among all of their M-F samples or only those taken since the debates. Either way, this is a significant tightening since yesterday when the reported the post-debate horserace at 48-43.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005

I'm not crazy about this methodology.  Their numbers seems to show a sizable shift that no one else is.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, +2

Obama:  47, -2

Approval is running 50/49 Obama.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, +2

Obama:  47, -2

Approval is running 50/49 Obama.

Romney gets his bounce. How long will it last and how deep and wide is it?

Well, we don't have a full sample showing the bounce as of yet.  One day of the sample is from Wednesday prior to the debate.

[J. J.]

I still don't get where people think there'll be any bounce for Romney, considering his miserable performance in that debate.

You don't gain votes by running against Big Bird.

Because we look at actual polls, the ones that show him with the highest numbers since they started polling.  

It will move his numbers, but it might be ephemeral.

[J. J.]

Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

denial

Denial seems to be the official sport of Republicans on this board.

More denial. 

[J. J.]

More denial. 

Your candidate lost when he decided canceling 'Sesame Street' would be a good idea.

Get over it.

Nobody wants to go into debt to fund Big Bird.

[J. J.]

More denial. 

Your candidate lost when he decided canceling 'Sesame Street' would be a good idea.

Get over it.

Nobody wants to go into debt to fund Big Bird.

If you really think PBS is part of the debt problem J.J., then you're the delusional one. That said, Bandit's no more right than you are.

That was the point of the comment, if you missed it.  The point seems to have worked.

[J. J.]

It's over.

Huh?  We don't even know if these numbers are ephemeral or not.

[J. J.]

It's over.

What do you mean?  Obama's chances at the presidency?

Yes.

Lief, at some point there was overly pro-Obama sample in Gallup.  It might have something to do with it.  Pull yourself together!

[J. J.]

Yes, that "shine" better start packing his bags right now.

WTF does shine mean, I assume it's a southern derogatory term for blacks but what is the meaning behind it?

Yes, it was from racist poem cited in Gates' Colored People.  We don't use it, in general, even in my neighborhood.  

[J. J.]

I really wouldn't expect much of a bounce for Obama based on the jobs report but I seriously doubt Romney's debate bounce will last very long.

I'm not saying a bounce, I'm just saying that the Pro-Romney samples will start dropping out in the next day or two and some that have heard about the jobs report will replace them, which is good news for the President.

The jobs report was partly in this sample (about a third).

[J. J.]

Exactly, which means it might be negating a larger Romney bounce.

Well, if this is the "negated bounce," Obama is in big trouble.

[J. J.]

Exactly, which means it might be negating a larger Romney bounce.

Well, if this is the "negated bounce," Obama is in big trouble.

A two point lead isn't trouble. Romney nearly always has a two point lead in Rasmussen.

First, no he didn't.  Second, if this poll includes "good news" and Obama is still slipping, it is really bad.