National Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Obama:  47%, u

Romney:  46%, u

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Obama: 46%

Romney: 47%

With leaners:  48/48

[J. J.]

RAND is an Internet poll, though not self selecting.  http://www.rand.org/labor/roybalfd/american_life.html

[J. J.]

Seriously, these tracking polls are all over the place. Who knows what to think anymore. Isn't that a significant jump for Obama from yesterday?

We could be seeing the effect of Romney's 47% remark.  The timing is right.

Libya may have actually hurt Obama.

[J. J.]

I think the job numbers hurt Obama more. Most of the decline seemed to come right after Obama's speech, which is when those numbers came out. Libya is a decent hypothesis too.

First, I really should say this Islamic world and not limit it to Libya.

Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.

[J. J.]

Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.

Polls that directly ask voters how it alters their perception of the candidates say otherwise.

Yet Romney's numbers went up after that.

[J. J.]

Yes, correlation is always causation.

And he gained one on Gallup today.

47/47 all. 

Most of that sample is prior to to the 47% comment, however.

[J. J.]

Today's RAND chart  is just brutal for Romney. 
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

I have no idea if it is a good methodology or not. I agree with Nate Silver that it is an interesting way of doing things.  If it turns out to be close to accurate I wonder if other pollsters will use the same approach

It relies solely on people with Internet access on their own computer.  It is not however an "Internet poll" in the classic sense of the word.

[J. J.]

One wonders what, exactly, happened with Gallup's poll.

Gallup and Rasmussen have been in conflict all cycle.  Rasmussen is swinging back to Obama so Gallup must keep the balance

Gallup has the horse race tied at 47/47, Rasmussen at 46/46.

Rasmussen has a shorter sampling period, so it is more likely to respond to a shift quickly.  It is also more likely to reflect a bad sample.

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Obama:  48%

Romney: 46%

Rasmussen:

Tied at 48%.

[J. J.]

Gallup has the 6 day cycle, so those are the numbers from the middle of last week, when Rasmussen showed an increase in approval number (47% comment response), that rolled off Rasmussen about three days later.  We will have to wait to see if this one drops off.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Obama: 47%

Romney: 46%

With leaners:  48/48

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Obama:  48%

Romney:  46%

[J. J.]

Ramussen:

Tied at 46% each.

With leaners:

Romney:  48%

Obama:  46%

[J. J.]

Considering their 7-day tracker, a HUGE Obama sample must have come in yesterday or so.

Or last week.  This could be a bump due to last week's post 47% comment numbers coming in. 

[J. J.]

Today Nate Silver wrote about how Rasmussen is the only poll showing anything good for Romney  noting...

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They actually underestimated the number GOP House seats gained in 2010.

One difference is the cycle.  Rasmussen is on a three day cycle, so it responds more quickly.  It had Romney down last week, while Gallup showed him gaining/holding.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Obama: 47

Romney:  46

With leaners:  48/48

[J. J.]

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

[J. J.]

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

I generally have been reporting both as a matter of course, when I have them.

[J. J.]

Still holding on Gallup with Romney 46, Obama 50.

Approval now at 48%, 46% disapprove.

[J. J.]

Still watching that 47% blip roll off the numbers.

They already did, silly.  It was in there on 9/19 to 9/22, then it dropped.  See the trends link on this page: 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

It is a bit strange to see the constant 50-44 lead with so much movement in the job approval number. You have to wonder if there isn't some huge Obama sample on the 7 day tracker that is holding the lead at 6. Time will tell I guess.

You are probably seeing a strong pro Obama sample in there that was a reaction to the 47% comment.  That is why I was saying wait until Tuesday.  

The week the comment came out, Obama's weekly approval actually went down.  They just were not yet getting the reaction results as of that point (though Rasmussen had them).

[J. J.]

Still watching that 47% blip roll off the numbers.

They already did, silly.  It was in there on 9/19 to 9/22, then it dropped.  See the trends link on this page:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

So what's driving Obama's rise in the Rasmussen tracker now? Whatever it is, you must be expecting to see it reflected in Gallup sooner or later.

Anything could be, including just statistical noise.  

No, the reason I was expecting a drop off on Gallup was because Romney went up on Gallup immediately after the comments.  It was obvious that the reaction samples were not yet a major component of the Gallup sample.

Gallup has a 6 day sample; Rasmussen has a 3 day sample.  Rasmussen records the changes more quickly than Gallup, but it is also be more influenced by a bad sample.  A bad sample will register for three days, then drop.  Rasmussen showed a clear shift, of more than three days, but there was nothing on Gallup.  It was obvious to someone with even an average understanding of polling that Gallup would jump when those numbers became a major part of the Gallup sample.

[J. J.]

It is a bit strange to see the constant 50-44 lead with so much movement in the job approval number. You have to wonder if there isn't some huge Obama sample on the 7 day tracker that is holding the lead at 6. Time will tell I guess.

You are probably seeing a strong pro Obama sample in there that was a reaction to the 47% comment.  That is why I was saying wait until Tuesday.  

The week the comment came out, Obama's weekly approval actually went down.  They just were not yet getting the reaction results as of that point (though Rasmussen had them).

I wouldn't read that much into Gallup's approval rating numbers, given that they're of adults, not of RV or of LV. And given that an average of 65 out of every 500 adults they poll every night is not an RV, there's plenty of room for the approval numbers to fluctuate in ways bearing no relationship to the horserace numbers.

Gallup says that it is registered voters.  

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/157709/obama-approval-vote-support-reach-better.aspx

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Obama: 49%, -1

Romney: 44%, u