Is Obama Finished?

[J. J.]

Obama is obviously not in great shape, but he's not finished by a long shot.

One of the reasons to look at the trough numbers is to see when he stops going down how much he has to build.  You can get very large difference from current approval to election results.

[J. J.]

Approvals in the low '40's a year and four months from an election does not spell doom.  Bush had a polled job approval average of about 48.5% when he beat Kerry.  So, it matters who the opponent is.  The really important number is not the job approval number by itself, but the unemployment and the right-track, wrong direction numbers.

In terms of poll numbers, the one concerning element is that Obama is basically not improving, at least as of last week.

It is my "von Kluck's turn" analogy.  We really have not seen Obama's numbers toward the more positive numbers.  That might change at any time, but, excepting George W. Bush, who had substantially higher numbers, no president has seen still declining numbers at the start of August.

[J. J.]

There is a limited usefulness to job approval ratings.

George W. Bush got re-elected in 2004 with a "Real Clear Politics" average of about 48.5% - Now a lot of those polls were adults and RVs, and a Republican typically does a couple points better at the ballot box than in a RV or Adults poll, while a democrat does a couple points worse. - It IS worth noting that in the 2004 exit polls GWB got a 51% approval rating which almost exactly match his actual vote total.

That being said, there are a ton of examples where a job approval rating either way above or way below 50% did not produce the expected electoral outcome.

I do look at it historically, however.  GWB was at 60% on Gallup at this point in 2003; Clinton and Reagan were both higher, though both were in the mid-40's, at the same point.  Of all the presidents since Nixon, all, save Carter, were higher than Obama.  All, except GWB, had been off their low points, and his low point was still higher than Obama's current number.

[J. J.]

There is a limited usefulness to job approval ratings.

George W. Bush got re-elected in 2004 with a "Real Clear Politics" average of about 48.5% - Now a lot of those polls were adults and RVs, and a Republican typically does a couple points better at the ballot box than in a RV or Adults poll, while a democrat does a couple points worse. - It IS worth noting that in the 2004 exit polls GWB got a 51% approval rating which almost exactly match his actual vote total.

That being said, there are a ton of examples where a job approval rating either way above or way below 50% did not produce the expected electoral outcome.

I do look at it historically, however.  GWB was at 60% on Gallup at this point in 2003; Clinton and Reagan were both higher, though both were in the mid-40's, at the same point.  Of all the presidents since Nixon, all, save Carter, were higher than Obama.  All, except GWB, had been off their low points, and his low point was still higher than Obama's current number.

These are like useless football statistics.  You know...  No team has come back from a 2 touch down deficit this late in the third quarter when its snowing on a Monday in Buffalo and then gone on to with the NFC title game.  You can contort the numbers any way you want, but I can tell you you can't call the game a year in advance.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

There is no calling, just looking at the history.  The picture recurs:

[J. J.]

I know how you "look" at things.  We were all subjected to your pointless ramblings about the stock market last week.  We all did fine by just ignoring you and holding our stocks.  I don't see why your predictions about an election that is over a year away are going to be any more accurate.

Apparently, you don't comprehend how things "look."  These are very straightforward numbers.


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A poll number two months before an election is not the same thing as an approval rating over a year before an election.  Your strawman was a noble but ultimately futile effort.
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I look toward the long term, for patterns occurring over decades.  The numbers simple are.

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Well, this isn't 20 years ago, but interestingly, GHWB, while his numbers were higher, was in a similar situation.  His numbers were, even then, declining.  He had further to fall.  How did GHWB's second term go, Link?

That is the thing everyone should be looking at with his Gallup numbers, not how down is Obama going, but when does he start to rebound?  And yes, Link, I'm expecting a rebound.

[J. J.]

Ask this question again in, say, late October 2012.

If he's at 39% in October 2012, I already know the answer. 

[J. J.]

Like that Picture of her eating that hotdog but it wont be a hot dog

yeah, and she's smart enough (and more than willing) to castrate him in each opening sentence and then use the very next sentence to pitch her solution...

If I were Obama, I wouldn't want Bachmann after my balls, for she could damage his stature more than Perry/Ryan/Romney/Christie combined.  And she's exactly the type that would go after his balls.

At least now everybody knows the type of person we are dealing with.

Yes, effective, not impotent.