Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[J. J.]

You can't fight a guerilla war out of power and with your assets frozen when your power is pretty much all mercenaries, which is the case with Gaddafi. The non-mercenary components of the Libyan Army defected and surrendered en masse under pressure.

Look at your Che Guevara tee shirt sometime.

I doubt if Qaddafi kept all of his assets at Chase.

The Army didn't defect (which would be good) .  It deserted, which means most of it is still out there.

While Opebo is worried about another Iran, I'm more worried about another Iraq or Somalia or a combination of the two.

Yes, I love to the Libyans get some paper, a pen, and a copy of Robert's Rules and form a democratic government.  I bet that is not what will happen.  Everyone step back and take a deep breath.  This is good, but it is not over.

[J. J.]

J. J. reminds me of that Libyan State TV anchor who was videotaped holding a gun and saying that she would fight to the death along with many others for Gaddafi. Well now that state TV office is abandoned.

I think even Gaddafi admitted that the rebels controlled some of Tripoli. Gaddafi has no use for a Tripoli Bob when he's.... I wonder what the heck Gaddafi is doing right now.

Actually, MSNBC was reporting (as of a half hour ago) that his compound and some of the city is still being held.  Also, there are pro Qaddafi snipers in the city.

[J. J.]

J. J. reminds me of that Libyan State TV anchor who was videotaped holding a gun and saying that she would fight to the death along with many others for Gaddafi. Well now that state TV office is abandoned.

I think even Gaddafi admitted that the rebels controlled some of Tripoli. Gaddafi has no use for a Tripoli Bob when he's.... I wonder what the heck Gaddafi is doing right now.

Actually, MSNBC was reporting (as of a half hour ago) that his compound and some of the city is still being held.  Also, there are pro Qaddafi snipers in the city.

Well, the rebels claims to hold the city, except Gaddafi compound, from what I understand.
I suspect they have a little less more ground than what they claim, so MSNBC seems logic.

They also said "pockets."  It might be over soon, but there could be a lot more bloodshed before it is over, even in Tripoli.

[J. J.]

J. J. reminds me of that Libyan State TV anchor who was videotaped holding a gun and saying that she would fight to the death along with many others for Gaddafi. Well now that state TV office is abandoned.

I think even Gaddafi admitted that the rebels controlled some of Tripoli. Gaddafi has no use for a Tripoli Bob when he's.... I wonder what the heck Gaddafi is doing right now.

Actually, MSNBC was reporting (as of a half hour ago) that his compound and some of the city is still being held.  Also, there are pro Qaddafi snipers in the city.

Well, the rebels claims to hold the city, except Gaddafi compound, from what I understand.
I suspect they have a little less more ground than what they claim, so MSNBC seems logic.

They also said "pockets."  It might be over soon, but there could be a lot more bloodshed before it is over, even in Tripoli.

Yes, but it is pretty sure than Gaddafi won't regain control of the city. Which more or less means he is finished.

He may not need to, directly.

[J. J.]

J. J. reminds me of that Libyan State TV anchor who was videotaped holding a gun and saying that she would fight to the death along with many others for Gaddafi. Well now that state TV office is abandoned.

I think even Gaddafi admitted that the rebels controlled some of Tripoli. Gaddafi has no use for a Tripoli Bob when he's.... I wonder what the heck Gaddafi is doing right now.

Actually, MSNBC was reporting (as of a half hour ago) that his compound and some of the city is still being held.  Also, there are pro Qaddafi snipers in the city.

Well, the rebels claims to hold the city, except Gaddafi compound, from what I understand.
I suspect they have a little less more ground than what they claim, so MSNBC seems logic.

They also said "pockets."  It might be over soon, but there could be a lot more bloodshed before it is over, even in Tripoli.

Yes, but it is pretty sure than Gaddafi won't regain control of the city. Which more or less means he is finished.

He may not need to, directly.

This isn't going to be another Iraq.

It might, but the worse possibility is another Somalia.  I'd prefer it to over before we all celebrate.

Asian gold is up 37-40, which is probably a reaction

[J. J.]

Wasn't there suppose to be a victory parade today?  I thought, BRTD, Lief, Jfern, and King were going?

[J. J.]

France24 finally awoke, according to Mathieu Mabin, serious and quite cautious reporter (usually even too much cautious to my taste, but maybe better too much than not enough), reporting from Tripoli right now, situation is quite messy, and some pro-Gadaffi units still fighting hard here or there, still according to him, most of the population is frightened at home (normal).

When you see that in Tunis it took about 3 days to put a kind of normal order in the city while the army was well organized and respected by the population, any situation that would more or less look like a quite situation in less than 3 days in Tripoli, in a non-state without the presence of an organized army would be a very good surprise.

Benwah, I' got say it.  The lady in your photo is cute.  I've always liked a woman in a hijab. 


Two things that bother me about the army.  It didn't mutiny, get killed, captured, or surrendered.  It is still out there someplace.  It didn't leave its weapons behind.

[J. J.]

I'd be very worried about a Somalia or guerrilla war situation.  I'd be very happy if there were a few brigades moving to the rebels, or conversely, surrendering and stacking their weapons.  Qaddafi will not be in charge of most of the county, but there may be a loyal cadre out there with guns, RPG's, bombs, and mortars.

Ironically, one of the people not getting into the victory parade mode is Obama.

[J. J.]

Two things that bother me about the army.  It didn't mutiny, get killed, captured, or surrendered.  It is still out there someplace.  It didn't leave its weapons behind.

So they followed the "JJ after the 2008 election" strategy.

No, since that strategy was let the victor act and destroy himself.  So far it's working.

Of course, the rebels might end up doing that as well.

[J. J.]

Word is breaking that Qadafi has drowned in the deluge.

I wish.

It isn't over.  Qaddafi is still alive, his forces are out there and still armed.  He has several heirs out there, free.  Let's hold off on the celebration for now.

[J. J.]

Two things that bother me about the army.  It didn't mutiny, get killed, captured, or surrendered.  It is still out there someplace.  It didn't leave its weapons behind.

So they followed the "JJ after the 2008 election" strategy.

No, since that strategy was let the victor act and destroy himself. 

ORLY? Because from here it looked like "I'm so embarrassed that I'll do a disappearing act and hope that after some months most people will forget the bullsh**t I propagated during the entire election season".

Except, I didn't.  I took some time off in 2009, but it started about 7 months into Obama's term around August 2009.  I had another online project I was involved in at the time and cut back here.  Also, not too much was happening in 2009, and I wasn't too interested in the NJ or VA governor's races.

I guess you missed a lot of them.

And it is interesting that you sort of forgot that, because, you and were cross posting before I took a break:

Now, I think he's handling it right!

Well, I guess now that Obama has JJ's stamp of approval, why should the Republicans bother to field an opponent against him in 2012?
It's obviously going to be a landslide.

No, Obama was just seeing the same problem I was, and is attempting to correct it.

[J. J.]

...Saif al Islam Qaddafi claims to not be in rebel hands.  I'm not sure how this is possible unless rebel security is so s**tty that they manage to catch and lose two different sons of Qaddafi over the course of 24 hours.

He had cash on him?  

Seriously, I'd expect that not all of Qaddafi's money was out of the counrty.

[J. J.]

One the sons took journalists on a tour of Tripoli, the closest thing to a victory parade today. 

[J. J.]

Did they take the compound yet; the story got bumped by the earthquake.

[J. J.]

JJ is absolutely epic in this thread.

Well, considering Qaddafi isn't dead, captured, or out of the county yet, and there is still fighting in the city, I'd hate to see your idea of what is good. 

[J. J.]

He made a radio broadcast today.

[J. J.]

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0826/breaking15.html?fb_ref=.TlhqMZo5Gwk.like&fb_source=home_multiline

hahah, what

This was reported a few days ago.

Qaddafi found a dead baby and trotted out the body for the press.  Dictators have been doing stuff like that since at least 1939.

[J. J.]

It's not good news per se that he died, but the fact he can't do any more harm is definitively excellent news.

Gaddafi pretty much couldn't do any more harm anyway.

I think he good have, so this is very good news.

[J. J.]

Can't wait for JJ to post in this thread!

Also the Obama-haters who opposed NATO intervention are looking pretty silly now.

I posted this morning saying it was great news.

Long term, it gives Libya a slightly better chance of having a stable government.

No we dont. If Libya doesnt get a democracy, it's Obama's fault.

First, I want stability above everything.

If Libya becomes the next Somalia (which is what I'm worried about), very little of the fault will go to Obama.

[J. J.]

To play a devil's advocate, what if Adolf Hitler fled Berlin and was found hiding in a pipe under a highway just outside Tel Aviv in 1950? Would he be treated any more humanely than Gaddafi?

The Israelis actually did try Eichmann.

That said, Gaddafi alive was very dangerous.  I can live with the summary execution.

[J. J.]

Gaddafi was a destabilizing influence at the point when he was killed.  The longer he lived, the worse the situation would get.  That would economic and political effects outside of Libya.  Inside Libya, more people would die.

I think you have to consider that.

(Shut up, BRTD, I'm agreeing with you.)