Can future Democratic presidents win Arizona?

[illegaloperation]

Are future Democratic presidents likely to carry Arizona? Unlike Texas Republicans that try to court as many Hispanic voters as possible, Arizona Republicans seem intend to offend as many of them as possible with show-me-your-paper laws.

The reason that Arizona is still in the Republican column is that unlike its neighboring states (Nevada and Colorado), the white votes in Arizona is decisively Republican while the white votes in Colorado and Nevada is only leaning Republican.

Arizona also houses a lot of white retirees that vote more Republican than younger whites.

[illegaloperation]

I am looking at the exit poll in 2012 election.

In Colorado, white votes lean Romney (54% to 44%) while Hispanics favor Obama (75% to 23%)

In Arizona, white votes go to Romney (62% to 36%) while Hispanics favor Obama (77% to 22%)

A very important issue here is whether the Democratic candidate (presumably Hillary) would be able to lose the white vote by a small enough margin that can be overcome by the Hispanic vote.

Because Maricopa County is Republican leaning, Democrats will have to minimize the loss there and get really high margins in Pima County.

[illegaloperation]

In my timeline, the next time a Democrat wins Arizona is when Gavin Newsom takes it by three points in 2028. However, he loses the state to Aaron Schock by one point in 2032. After Newsom, the next Democrat to win Arizona is Sebastian Caldero in 2068. In 2052, incumbent libertarian (formerly Republican) president David Henrie takes the state (it is his home state).

lol, I won't go that far into the future.

[illegaloperation]

Arizona is experiencing the same effects that made Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada Dem leaning states. In addition to the Hispanic vote, women in Arizona voted Democrat in 2012.

That's what I am saying. The difference in Arizona is that the white vote breaks decisively Republican while white the vote in Nevada and Colorado is only leaning Republican.

Had the white vote in Arizona been like white vote in Nevada and in Colorado, Obama would have carried Arizona last November.

[illegaloperation]

The Hispanic vote isn't going to be enough to win AZ for the democrats.  They will need to attract the conservative white vote and it will be tough, especially since AZ is known to be tougher on immigration.

AZ is also attracting a lot of aging whites, which isn't going to help the democrats' cause in my opinion and unlike CO, the youth vote isn't that high in that state (I believe).

Hispanic: Arizona (29.6%), Nevada, (26.5%), Colorado (20.7)

People age 65+: Arizona (13.8%), Nevada (12.0%), Colorado (10.9%)

People age below 18: Arizona (25.5%), Nevada (24.6), Colorado (24.4)