Washington state megathread

[KingSweden]

The legislative map could be pretty crazy, though.  There are so many Seattle-area LDs that are growing above state average, and not many growing far enough below state average to "absorb" those new registrants from neighboring high-growth areas.  There could be some fun, weird shifting.

I think many of the non-Tri Cities EWA districts get considerably larger, particularly the ones in the north and southeast of the state. The border counties are flat if not shrinking. It'll be really interesting to see the effects in the Vancouver area, too, and if a district that could elect Latinos emerges in Yakima rather than a split designed to elect Republicans.

[KingSweden]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

May be. And even Litzov - can. But both are clearly living on borrowed time, and even if they win - i doubt that they will run in 2020. Hague (another moderate) was defeated for King county council recently quite decisively...

Unfortunately I think Litzow goes down this year. I do think Wyman holds on, however.

[KingSweden]

Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

And while not a man, she is a married gay.

I did not know that! The tradition continues, regardless! I think Macri is a great candidate and has some of the best experience in dealing with Seattle's homeless problem. That race reminds me of the city council Johnson/Maddox race, where both candidates are amazing, but in the end, there's a clear urbanist choice (Johnson and Shih). I would LOVE if Maddox challenged Sawant though, not that I hate her or anything, but she's surprisingly anti-density and pro-single-family-home.

What are Marci's stances in regards to Seattle's recent homeless debates? If she's an advocate with some knowledge on the matter I imagine she has a better position than SCC's current "stick them in parks!" plan but I've learned long ago that the housing debate in Seattle frequently misses the forest for the trees, with someone like Sawant being a perfect example.

[KingSweden]

Sounds like Shih is more on my wavelength but they are both remarkably clear-eyed about the issue. Macri I'm sure will be a fine legislator

[KingSweden]

Sounds like Shih is more on my wavelength but they are both remarkably clear-eyed about the issue. Macri I'm sure will be a fine legislator

Part of Macri's background was setting up housing for the homeless that let tenants drink on the premises. It was unpopular, but Macri fought for it because she believed that large amounts of the homeless population would chose booze over housing if they were forced to, and she didn't want to turn them away.

Stuff like that, fighting for unpopular measures for the greater good, really impresses me.

That's actually a pretty good idea. Also why I always give food to homeless rather than money, so I help with hunger rather than potentially fuel an alcohol habit.

[KingSweden]

Filled out my ballot over the weekend.

Prez: Clinton
Senate: Murray
Gov: Inslee (ugh)
SOS: Wyman (R)
Treas: Davidson (R)
Super: Reykdal
Lands: McLaughlin (R)
LGov: Habib
Congress: Pakootas (first time I voted against Cathy)
State Rep 1: Vehrs (D)
State Rep 2: Holy (R, his opponent is a loon)
Spokane County Commish: Mumm (D)
Transit Initiative: Yes

[KingSweden]

State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/

Jeez! RIP

[KingSweden]

State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/

So a special election will occur in the following year with the GOP being allowed to appoint a successor until then?

Correct. Sure to be a competitive race.

It'll be really, really competitive. Downtown Kirkland, fast-growing Redmond suburbs, the "old eastside" with Duvall and Sammamish... should be interesting.

[KingSweden]

It's tIke to stop trying to make Darcy Burner happen. It's not gonna happen.

[KingSweden]

Check out the urban/suburban divide on ST3.

Redmond really wants their part of the line finished, clearly

[KingSweden]

Wow at Walla Walla going D

[KingSweden]

Dino Rossi could be appointed to Andy Hill's vacant Senate Seat.

Could Rossi actually hold the seat in the special election for Republicans?
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/dino-rossi-says-hes-willing-to-temporarily-replace-hill-in-state-senate/

A few years ago Rossi was appointed to fill a Senate vacancy in a different district. He didn't run for the open seat then; don't see why he would now in a district that would be even harder to hold. I think he's done with politics for the most part.

He'd probably hold til the special and step down again. Have to imagine Goodman or Isenhower run and take it. Wonder who GOP would run if Rossi is there as placeholder - can't imagine there's another Hill out there

[KingSweden]

Also, for the first time since the 1920s (?) Pacific and Grays Harbor counties voted R for governor. It's actually pretty amazing how Trump was able to drag generic R up in Southwest WA, particularly in Wahkiakum and Cowlitz.

For comparison:
Grays Harbor 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 63.84%
Marty McClendon - 36.16%
Grays Harbor 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 56.55%
Todd Bloom - 43.45%

Mason 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 55.83%
Marty McClendon - 44.17%
Mason 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 52.26%
Todd Bloom - 47.74%

Clallam 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 56.82%
Marty McClendon - 43.18%
Clallam 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 55.56%
Todd Bloom - 44.44%


That huge swing in Grays Harbor, against a nobody opponent, is something to note.

Interesting that the swing wasn't bigger in the other counties, especially somewhere more reflexively conservative like Mason

[KingSweden]

Some thoughts on the next few years here in Washington...

Democrats have some tremendous opportunities with the 2017 elections, starting with the upcoming special to replace Andy Hill. With Trump unlikely to be popular in the Seattle suburbs this probably starts at Lean D, particularly if the GOP placeholder doesn't run.

There will also be elections for King County Council, with all 3 Republicans left up. None will be as easy to dislodge as Hague was in 2015. PvR should hang on if he chooses to run again and I have a hard time seeing Dunn go down. Still, with the trend in KC, Democrats would be idiots not to target this.

There is also the Bellevue City Council, which I *believe* still has a conservative (by Bellevue standards) majority. Seattle elections will certainly get interesting since Murray no longer has his massive approvals, though I don't know who'd be there to challenge him. I imagine both Burgess and Gonzales hang on in the at-large Council seats, though I'd support any Gonzalez challenger who took her on over the SoDo stadium and her boneheaded homeless policy.

Spokane is all defense. Amazingly, up until the 2013 City Council elections, the Spokane City Council had a 4-3 conservative majority. Now it has a 6-1 liberal majority thanks to some key wins and retirements over the last four years. I have to imagine at least one of the Council liberals looses, not that it will matter much. The big game is the Mayoral contest in 2019.

[KingSweden]

Looking ahead to 2018, Democrats will have a chance to claw back some losses in the House and Senate. They had a great start on this with the double win in the 30th.

The 5th's two LDs will be the big one, I think. Step one for Democrats will have to be not running Darcy Burner again, or ever. I think in a Trump midterm this is doable.

A seat I personally would like to see targeted is the 6th, in Spokane. Here's why:

Popular, moderate Rep. Kevin Parker surprisingly retired. His replacement Mike Volz seems pretty moderate too but will be a freshman. Jeff Holy is probably entrenched but he definitely lacks Parker's profile in this district. The big fish here is Senator Mike Baumgardner, a staunch conservative who nevertheless plays well with others and has delivered for Spokane, most notably the WSU medical school.

This area is my old district when I lived in Spokane and it should be targeted at all levels by Democrats every year. Running moonbats like Shar Lichty is unacceptable. The district does have some rural areas west of Spokane and an AFB, but it also has the fairly center-left (educated, affluent) South hill, which is growing, as well as Cheney. It also wraps around to include North Spokane's suburbs, which tend to run a little more conservative, but these are growing quick. At the very least, the district keeps growing and has a large university. Dems need to target it - besides the 3rd, this is one of the few places we have to go on offense in Eastern WA, and Hillary did well in Spokane County. Surprisingly well.

[KingSweden]

There are about zero offensive opportunities in EWA besides the 6th unless Latinos in the Yakima and Columbia Valleys start voting commensurate to their numbers. That said, Democrats can support independents or moderate Republicans in all-R contests to make sure that the other side has reasonable people who want to be productive in the legislature (conservatives and moderates who live in Seattle should do the same). Electing people like Maureen Walsh to the Senate is a step in this direction.

[KingSweden]

A silver lining for Dems is that both coastal/Olympic Senate seats were up this year and we kept both even as the region swung hard towards Rs. I'm interested to see if Ds can find a good recruit to take back the 19th - maybe JD Rossetti? Why did he lose his primary as an incumbent?

Mark Miloscia is up in the 30th. Ds obviously had a great night here but who do they recruit to take on a guy like Miloscia who's got an interesting profile for an R (pro labor, pro life). I think this is the top target for the Senate, provided the 45th is won in 2017.

Is Jan Angel vulnerable? The Reps in that district need to be top tier targets too.

I think Joe Fain could be an opportunity, though he seems centrist enough for his district, and his brother is a popular radio host. This needs to be a target, but Dems shouldn't expect too much here.

[KingSweden]

The Pierce County swing map is a lot of fun.

Democrats surged not only in North End and West Tacoma, but also UP, Fircrest, in and around Gig Harbor, DuPont, Lakeland Hills, and some scattered upscale subdevelopments.  In working-class exurban and rural areas, quite a few precincts swung 20-30% toward the Republicans.

Good news for Dems looking to take on Jan Angel for Senate. Bad news for hopes Dems could snatch back Puyallup area (not that I think they have anyone who could knock out Melanie Stambaugh)

[KingSweden]

BTW who won Pierce CE? Haven't found anything online and that's an underrated crucial office

[KingSweden]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

[KingSweden]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

[KingSweden]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden, Merkley, and Inslee: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.

Inslee is from WA FWIW and is pretty moderate on non-climate change related issues. (I should say moderate by WA standards)

[KingSweden]

Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

[KingSweden]

Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

You are right- it is in 2017. The Ds should gain control of the Senate then. It'll be (23+1) - 25?

RI, amazing maps!

The 2018 map is pretty much all offensive opportunities too, especially after some disappointments this year. Angel, Fain and Baumgardner I imagine are the top targets

[KingSweden]

Cathy getting tapped for Interior will create some interesting jockeying in Spokane. I picked the wrong time to move back to seattle apparently