Redistricting victims next cycle.

[KingSweden]

Cooper’s best shot at survival is to see if his people can get an independent commission on the 2020 ballot that prioritizes keeping counties whole

Does TN have ballot initiatives?

[KingSweden]

I mean this discussion is kinda moot since TN isn’t losing seats

[KingSweden]

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.

Not going to happen. DeFazio lives in Lane County (I think in Eugene proper), so any district including Eugene is his district. And no district including Eugene is voting Republican.

It's also honestly much more reasonable to cross the Cascades at Hood River than the way the map currently works, since there's an Interstate along the Columbia River but only winding state highways that close in winter in the southern part of the state.

DeFazio lives in Springfield.

Here is the deal:
Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Tillamook, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, and 100,000 more people (probably from northern and eastern Marion county, rather than a Weird Hood River/Wasco protrusion) make exactly three safe blue congressional districts.


Benton, Lincoln, Linn, Polk, the rest of Marion County, and about 100,000 people from Lane County (probably Eugene west of the 5, northeast of the Willamette, but Springfield or the Santa Clara area could work too) makes another congressional district, which Hillary Clinton won by a few percentage points. This additionally forces DeFazio south.

DeFazio's new district would have to take in all of Josephine, and about half (Western Medford, Jacksonville, Ashland) of Jackson county. This would maintain an even PVI, which DeFazio would have a very good shot in.

Walden would keep East Medford, Central Point, and White City, along with all of Oregon east of the cascades. This would be a safe R seat.

All in all, it would look something like this:

Pic didn’t work