Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[KingSweden]

Because Stacey Abram's policies are better than Kemp's?

Exactly.  She'll be a better governor for Georgia.

[KingSweden]

Do you guys think Isakson will resign if Abrams wins? If so, who do you think Deal appoints to replace him? He’s so sick that I really don’t think he’ll be able to serve out the entirety of his term.

Is he really that ill?

[KingSweden]

I'm surprised that there hasn't been more polls on Kemp vs. Abrams.

There should be polls daily from now on til Nov. 6

I wonder if Abrams' appeal to Atlanta suburban voters could cause Barry Loudermilk to lose. (Vinings area)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Loudermilk

Abrams' suburban appeal could cost: Loudermilk, Handel, Woodall, and Austin Scott their jobs this election day.

That would be a boom to GA Democrats.

Dude Loudermilk is not going to lose

[KingSweden]

Abrams’s advantage will never be shown in the polls. I’m ignoring them myself.

This strikes me as unsound

[KingSweden]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

They're equally extreme.  DeSantis is going with the alt-right image, whilst Kemp is going for the toothless hick in his trailer and pickup truck image.

I disagree on this with Kemp.  So far, he has an affable manner in his appearances, and his ads on Abrams's tax issues are fair and direct. 

And I am somewhat concerned with Abrams's non-appearance on TV (and therefore, not responding to the tax issue).  It reminds me of Hillary in August 2016 where she effectively disappeared from the public eye (to fundraise, we were told).  I am hoping that Abrams blazes it up for September and October.

In hindsight, HRC taking the foot off the gas during August was probably her campaign’s fatal flaw.

[KingSweden]

My prediction: Abrams +3

I’ll say Abrams +2

[KingSweden]

I don't think yard signs do a whole lot (or we'd have Congressman Ossoff), but I agree that they may at least get the candidate's name out there.  Something I've complained about recently is that Abrams seemed to have gone quiet -- no TV or radio ads, signs, or other outreach that was visible to me.   Kemp has been mostly unopposed with TV ads during the times/stations I watch, although last night I did finally see an Abrams ad on channel 11.

Pretty much from the beginning, Abrams herself has said that this campaign wouldn't be one won or ran based on TV ads, radio spots and so forth. The reason so many areas are getting field organizers and energy pumped into them is because that money isn't being pumped into expensive ATL media market ad buys. There will come a day where both can happen, but a win statewide will be needed before that happens. Much like with the sign stats I posted above, TV and radio spots are essentially a never-ending black hole of resource entrapment for campaigns; as long as you can keep the disadvantage to 2:1 or less, there's arguably no negative impact (or positive impact if you're on the winning side of those odds). Even if you're outside those odds, effective field and abundant enthusiasm can easily overcome deficits created by it.

Furthermore, it seems pretty obvious that the campaign is also pursuing (or at least benefiting from) a stealth approach alongside this; they don't want the extent of their investment to be immediately known or visible to every GOP operative and voter. Based on the universe of voters being targeted, it's not difficult for that to be the case. While I still disagree with the strategy of effectively abandoning persuasion efforts, they are reaching out to large numbers of registered voters.

Abrams deciding on no persuasion gives me serious pause

[KingSweden]

What is it that southern PSC’s do, anyways? They seem to be the only states that have them

[KingSweden]

AJC article on the debate: https://www.ajc.com/news/stacey-abrams-brian-kemp-debate-tonight/h5hAHuiFtUPlEOR66cK0HN/.

Here's a tidbit about Abrams that I didn't know:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I love how the Bigfoot thing stuck with Riggleman yet the Montgomery thing hasn't stuck with Abrams.

In fairness, having an interest in "bigfoot erotica" is a lot more eye catching than a simple romance novel.

To put it mildly

[KingSweden]

I actually agree and applaud Abrams burning that stupid flag, but strategically I think it hurts her.

The people who care about the honor of Lost Cause trash were unlikely to vote for a Democrat and were never voting for a black woman period.

Yea I don’t think it takes away many votes from her.

Maybe, but it could take enough away to put it in a runoff. Depends on how much the story catches on I guess. Kemp not bringing it up probably makes a difference

[KingSweden]

Will Ferrell volunteering for Abrams

Man, he’s looking old...

[KingSweden]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

I could be wrong, obviously, but the massive growth in the Atlanta Metro feels a lot more reminiscent of NoVA than the Research Triangle.

What was the big difference between NoVA and the Research Triangle that prevented NC from turning into VA anyway? It seems like both of them are similarly D, but the main difference is that other metros in VA are swinging D but not really so much for NC.

I mean Atlanta and DC are considerably larger, more established metros than Raleigh

[KingSweden]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

I could be wrong, obviously, but the massive growth in the Atlanta Metro feels a lot more reminiscent of NoVA than the Research Triangle.

What was the big difference between NoVA and the Research Triangle that prevented NC from turning into VA anyway? It seems like both of them are similarly D, but the main difference is that other metros in VA are swinging D but not really so much for NC.

I mean Atlanta and DC are considerably larger, more established metros than Raleigh

This applies to Charlotte as well.

^^^

Though the CTL burbs aren’t growing faster than ATL/DC

[KingSweden]

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1059205044199923712

Rubs chin

[KingSweden]

My prediction for tonight is Kemp barely wins more votes than Abrams (something like 49-47%), and it goes to a December runoff.

I wish I could think more optimistically, but having been around so many red voters (I live and work in a very pro-Trump area) and seeing how energized they are, not by Kemp but by a dislike of Abrams, I think Kemp is going to get more votes but be unable to bring it home.

My wish is that Abrams wins outright tonight.

I think a runoff is a reasonable expectation.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/kira_lerner/status/1059908403596873734

Seems like something poll workers should know