2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

The chart is scaring me...

All hail the chart

[KingSweden]

Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html

There was a poll in January

[KingSweden]

Tiffany Drumpf calling it....blue wave imminent:

Lol. She knows what’s up.

She is probably the only Trump spawn with any common sense. She was very smart not to be a part of her father's administration. Then again, I doubt he'd let her be part of it. He barely seems to acknowledge the poor girl, it's become a recurring joke at this point for some.
We'll see about Barron. I'm under the impression that he is humiliated by his dad and would probably be bullied in his private school for being the spitting image of him, if it weren't for that Secret Service protection of course. he will probably be one of the good Trump kids also. I guess there's something inherently awful about being the product of Ivana and Donald. Their DNA is probably the equivalent of Xenomorph blood.

Let’s not discuss the hypothetical thoughts and “goodness” of a 10 year old please

[KingSweden]

PPP (03/23-03/25)
Democrats   50% (+2)
Republicans  39% (-1)

Last poll was 02/09-02/11
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

Red wave is dead officially.

Until the next shiny object poll we can all obsess over.

Also check this thing’s enthusiasm gap...

[KingSweden]

PPP poll of South Carolina CD 1, which Trump won 54-40 and Romney won 58-40.

https://www.postandcourier.com/cunningham-st-district-poll/pdf_60d4f8e6-3431-11e8-8249-6361aacaeb48.html

Trump approval: 46/47.

Generic Congressional ballot: R 46, D 40.

Mark Sanford favorability: 44/40.

Reelect Sanford or prefer someone new?  Sanford 38, someone new 52.

Prefer a Republican who will support Trump's agenda, or a Democrat who will work across party lines to get results?   D 53, R 40.

The last four viewed together are interesting, to say the least.  I'm not quite sure what to make of them.

And Joe Cunningham seems like an excellent candidate for this district

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/980142373631033344

What was #1? GOP in '94?

Dems 2006, I think

[KingSweden]

New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.

I wonder how much of this is simply packed in already D districts.

Probably a bit, TBF, but it’s still remarkable that the House 2-Party margin is double

[KingSweden]

Don’t look now but the 538 average is back in the 8.5% range

[KingSweden]

Reuters: White college educated voters over 60 are shifted hard to Democrats

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Source

Was just about to post this

[KingSweden]

Politico Morning Consult is D+6, it was D+4 a week ago

Rasmussen is D+5, it was D+6 a month ago.

So noise, more or less

Elway poll of WA-05:

This is not a district where Democrats should be within 6 (source: used to live here)

[KingSweden]

Lisa Brown might be running the strongest campaign of any democratic challenger in the country. I just checked her facebook - she's getting 600+ likes every post and seems incredibly polished in her policies. Independent and internal polling has shown her in striking distance of toppling an extremely powerful GOP congresswoman in a district that favored the Republican candidate for president by 13 points! She is dynamo.

It helps that she was the Senate Majority Leader and then helped Spokane land the state’s second medical school as WSU-Spokane Chancellor. She’s easily our best House recruit on the West Coast, probably top five nationally

[KingSweden]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

[KingSweden]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

Well there’s our answ r

[KingSweden]

Lmao. Podhoretz and NRSC and NRCC operatives are now trumpeting the Quinnipiac poll as a sign of a red wave on twitter.

JPod is a hack who only ever posts polls that fits his priors

[KingSweden]

AZ-08 Special Election, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

Trump won this district by 21 points in 2016.

If we only lose here by 10 I’d be f’ing ecstatic

[KingSweden]

YouGov, April 8-10, 1292 RV

D 44 (+1)
R 36 (nc)

The D+8 margin is the highest for YouGov in several weeks.

QPac keeps seeming stranger

[KingSweden]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

Sara Jacobs is literally trying to buy the seat tho. She's self-funded two-thirds of her own campaign so far. And I certainly wouldn't describe Applegate as a conservative.

A lot of SoCal candidates are self-funding, including Paul Kerr, Gil Cisneros, Harley Rouda, and Andy Thorburn, but Jacobs is getting the most flack. Double standard much?

My issue w/ Jacobs is that her resume seems thin (or inflated) compared just against a number of talented women running this year, and Levin and Applehate (and Kerr) all seem better.

[KingSweden]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

Sara Jacobs is literally trying to buy the seat tho. She's self-funded two-thirds of her own campaign so far. And I certainly wouldn't describe Applegate as a conservative.

A lot of SoCal candidates are self-funding, including Paul Kerr, Gil Cisneros, Harley Rouda, and Andy Thorburn, but Jacobs is getting the most flack. Double standard much?

My issue w/ Jacobs is that her resume seems thin (or inflated) compared just against a number of talented women running this year, and Levin and Applehate (and Kerr) all seem better.

That’s a fair criticism, but bashing Jacobs for self-funding while supporting candidates like Cisneros seems hypocritical.

I agree.

[KingSweden]

Tidbit from this politico article: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/13/gop-house-seats-trump-country-519214

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Bit surprised Garrett isn't in any danger. Last I heard he was behind his dem challenger in fundraising  

Being behind is a form of being in danger, just not the polling kind.

[KingSweden]

Well the survey says imminent danger. Could be he’s up like 6 or something

Fair enough.

And if Garrett and Budd are the “foundation” of keeping the House... woof. As someone pointed out on DKE, there’s 35-40 odd districts likelier to fall than either of theirs

[KingSweden]

The advantage with all adults is +10 which makes me curious why their registered voter screen filtered out so many people.

Only 2014 voters, maybe?

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/985910755764637699

Now that is an encouraging poll. Could easily see Dems gaining three out of four of NJ-2, NJ-3, NJ-7, and NJ-11 with that result.

2, 7 and 11 will flip, I think. 3 only goes down in a superwave

[KingSweden]

3 will be much closer than 4

[KingSweden]

The Federalist is on it

https://thefederalist.com/2018/04/18/new-polls-undermine-forecast-blue-wave-midterms/

Does the media ever get tired reporting on every bit of movement in the GCB?

The Pederalist needs to push its own #narrative

[KingSweden]

Weren't we promised a poll from Nevada today?

7pm PT