2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

Nate Silver was more right than Sean T on 11:8:16, even if both were “wrong”

[KingSweden]

He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

To be fair, “check back in a week” is not terrible advice prima facie - however, it still ignores that the “shift” came during an unusual lull in non-Internet tracker polls

[KingSweden]

He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

To be fair, “check back in a week” is not terrible advice prima facie - however, it still ignores that the “shift” came during an unusual lull in non-Internet tracker polls

The fact that their model will ensure that Trashy Rassy will always be included in the average due to their frequency, but high quality polls that occur at best only once a month will gradually be pushed out, is a big reason why RCP is the worst of the 3 aggregates.

I don’t disagree. There are some flaws with their model.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1004839028531884034

Fancy that.

[KingSweden]

Fox News Poll:

48% Democrats (+2)
39% Republicans (-2)

Source

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Limo came like the wind, like the wind trolled everyone, and like the wind was wrong.

[KingSweden]

What's interesting is in a lot of these polls is that both Trump AND Democrats are improving.

Not really; his approvals are still stuck in the mid-40’s. Marginally, they're better, but he’s still not in the positive range.

True, but the movement in several recent polls has been what he described.  It is interesting.

Movement that I’m sure is of cold comfort to the Hill GOP, as the GCB atrophies for them again.

[KingSweden]

Next Monmouth house district poll will be the OH-12 special election:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1005106649605070849

I’ll presuke a narrow R lead in all but their Dem surge model

[KingSweden]

IN-03: A Banks internal has him up 20 points, 55-34, over Courtney Tritch in a seat nobody views as particularly competitive. Good number, though under his expected baseline in such a Republican seat.

The bigger news is that Donnelly only trails here by 8, 50-42, in a district he lost by 12 against
Mourdock.

Bear in mind this is a House race internal.


https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-donnelly-in-position-to-win-in-indiana

[KingSweden]

Prior Bill Clinton most Presidents were discreet enough to not bother the American people with his presence. They did not try to get on TV every day.   Clinton was the first to really work on having an everyday presence.  It enraged me and many folks like me.   I really believe that was part of the 1994 wave.

Now I realize that 24/7 news coverage started during the Carter years.  But Carter, Reagan, and 43 did not seek out an everyday presence on TV. 45 returned to normalcy.   And Obama was not bad either

But now Trump works for coverage everyday.  And he has his stupid tweets. He is attempting to dominate the social media everyday.  He is in the process of actually driving his opposition and the resistance to the polls.  I know he believes he is motivating his supporters.  He may be.  But he is driving an even greater number of his detractors to the polls.

In my opinion that is why there will be an Atlas red wave.  My GOP friends tell me I am overreacting.  But they will get the message on 11/6.

Trump also has no ability to deal with his opposition in a conciliatory manner.  He just enrages his opponents.

Now I will also say the 24/7 rage expressed by the resistance on MSNBC, CNN, and other social media could have a counter effect.

I also believe there is nothing to Russia collusion claims, especially in light of all Trump’s anti Russian actions.  The resistance needs to be carefull not to cause a boomerang.

For the midterms: advantage resistance. For 2020 we will have to wait to see the reaction.

I agree with the first half of this post. Trump’s narcissism is his own Achilles heel. A President who would just shut up and not be a d!ck every five seconds would be at 60% approvals in this economic environment, IMO.

[KingSweden]

Prior Bill Clinton most Presidents were discreet enough to not bother the American people with his presence. They did not try to get on TV every day.   Clinton was the first to really work on having an everyday presence.  It enraged me and many folks like me.   I really believe that was part of the 1994 wave.

Now I realize that 24/7 news coverage started during the Carter years.  But Carter, Reagan, and 43 did not seek out an everyday presence on TV. 45 returned to normalcy.   And Obama was not bad either

But now Trump works for coverage everyday.  And he has his stupid tweets. He is attempting to dominate the social media everyday.  He is in the process of actually driving his opposition and the resistance to the polls.  I know he believes he is motivating his supporters.  He may be.  But he is driving an even greater number of his detractors to the polls.

In my opinion that is why there will be an Atlas red wave.  My GOP friends tell me I am overreacting.  But they will get the message on 11/6.

Trump also has no ability to deal with his opposition in a conciliatory manner.  He just enrages his opponents.

Now I will also say the 24/7 rage expressed by the resistance on MSNBC, CNN, and other social media could have a counter effect.

I also believe there is nothing to Russia collusion claims, especially in light of all Trump’s anti Russian actions.  The resistance needs to be carefull not to cause a boomerang.

For the midterms: advantage resistance. For 2020 we will have to wait to see the reaction.

I agree with the first half of this post. Trump’s narcissism is his own Achilles heel. A President who would just shut up and not be a d!ck every five seconds would be at 60% approvals in this economic environment, IMO.

True.  But if Trump weren't the way he is, he wouldn't have been elected.

That... yeah that’s depressingly true too.

[KingSweden]

it is gonna crash

BREAKING!!! The crash begins!

Reuters poll shows impending Democratic collapse.

Democrats have lost their momentum in the fabulously accurate and reliable Reuters poll (June 7-11).

Dem 43.3% (-.3%)
Rep 34.3%(+0%)

#TheDeclineAndFallOfTheBlueWave #RedWaveIsComing cc: LimoLiberal, Sean Trende

What Reuters giveth, Reuters taketh away.

Will we poop our pants?

Why would you NOT poop your pants

[KingSweden]

PPP (Last poll was in late March):

Democrats 46% (-4)
Republicans 40% (+1)

Source

Yeah, I think their last poll was a bit of an outlier. This is back to the average.

Agreed.

[KingSweden]

I'm sensing some /s

He’s cosplaying as LimoLiberal

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1006866676829257728

I don't think he wins, but if this is what NJ-03 looks like, the rest of the state is going to be a bloodbath.

Agree both counts

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/SienaResearch/status/1006997694693462021

Katko will beat either

[KingSweden]

That’s quite a gender gap.

[KingSweden]

Let's see more crosstabs...

18-34 year olds going for the Democrats by 16 points, 55+ going for them by 9.

Republicans winning whites by 9 points, while the Democrats are winning non-whites by 40.

Yikes none of those are good stats for the GOP

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

I have a strong feeling the Dems are going to far exceed expectations on election day, just like the GOP did in 2010, and that's what the polls are showing.

If they win OH 12, which is a bellweather, will tell if the Dems have exceeded the 273 blue wall, by winning in OH, a Lean GOP state. If they don't, then all bets are off again, and the House will be very close

So they would have exceeded the freiwal?

[KingSweden]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

How on earth is that even close to a Tossup?

[KingSweden]

Hey maybe MT was right and there really aren’t that many Tester/WWE voters

[KingSweden]

In 2010, Republicans started running away in the Generic Ballot in July. I wonder if we're seeing something similar happen now.

What does THE CHART say?

[KingSweden]

CNN:

Democrats 50% (+3)
Republicans 42% (-2)

Source

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1009530602075361281

Has anyone analyzed how enthusiasm gap effects eventual results? Like a margin bonus?

[KingSweden]

How about taking the Russia discussion to another thread?

Such as the great megathread for such things

[KingSweden]

Remington has Donovan up 47/40 in NY-11.

I could see Grimm with the upset quite easily