Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[KingSweden]

Should be titled "1.2"

[KingSweden]

All that he can convince those who 'failed' to vote for him the last time is that that their vote for Hillary Clinton was the right vote to make.

Not to mention those who were inclined to vote for Hillary, but didn't because they thought Trump wouldn't win or those who voted third party because they couldn't stomach Hillary but would vote Democrat otherwise. His win was really weak and anyone with common sense would work to endear themselves to "others" instead of disparaging them at every turn.

Exactly. Both JFK and Carter knew how shaky their electoral wins were and tried to build upon those wins. JFK was successful, and Carter wasn't. Dubya practically needed 9/11 to keep from being a one-term President. JFK had the promise of being the greatest President since FDR before the original Nightmare on Elm Street  (that is the street his car was on on November 22, 1963 in Dallas).

It’s debatable how much of the Great Society was passed because JFK died, though

[KingSweden]

Quinnipiac, Nov 7-13, 1577 voters (change from last month)

Approve 35 (-3)  Strongly 26 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)  Strongly 51 (+1)

By party: R 80/11, I 31/63, D 5/91

57% say Trump is unfit to serve as President, vs 40% who say he's fit.

Good luck in the midterms, GOP!

[KingSweden]

Colorado

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http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/politics/coloradans-increasingly-displeased-with-president-trump-poll-finds

https://mediaassets.thedenverchannel.com/document/2017/11/29/Keating%20Colorado%20Poll%20November%202017%20XTABS%20Part%20One%20-%20For%20Release_72983933_ver1.0.pdf?_ga=2.251906825.1467516554.1512000768-1705114113.1512000768

Holy mother of bloodbath, 66%!

Those numbers portend a bad night in the Colorado Legislature for the GOP if true

[KingSweden]

Yeah, he isn't winning a second term with those numbers. I am starting to believe the theory that Trump won't even run in 2020.

Remember, he thought about running in 2012, but decided not too because he knew he would lose badly.

One of my colleagues, a die-hard Trump fan, is so confident in Trump's reelection that he offered to bet lunch on it for the day after the 2020 election.  (I accepted.)

That’s a remarkably milquetoast bet

[KingSweden]

Among Millennials

Approve: 19%
Disapprove: 74%
DK/NA: 7%

The GOP is finished

Conference committee announces excise tax on avocado toast

Haha! I think avocado toast is vile, personally

[KingSweden]

Pew Research

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 63%

http://www.people-press.org/2017/12/07/stark-partisan-divisions-over-russia-probe-including-its-importance-to-the-nation/

Ouch

[KingSweden]

Pew Research

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 63%

http://www.people-press.org/2017/12/07/stark-partisan-divisions-over-russia-probe-including-its-importance-to-the-nation/

Ouch

I like how the % of Republicans who are confident in Mueller conducting a fair investigation is only 44%, and this is coming from the party of law and order that routinely sides with cops in cases of police misconduct involving minorities. Who would have thought that Republicans would think an older white male Republican prosecutor could possibly be unfair to their guy, when all those older white male prosecutors have seemingly been fair and just to all those gunned down minorities

Indeed, if there’s one person I consider a flaming liberal, it’s the ex-Marine 12-year director of the FBI

[KingSweden]

Pew Research

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 63%

http://www.people-press.org/2017/12/07/stark-partisan-divisions-over-russia-probe-including-its-importance-to-the-nation/

Ouch

I like how the % of Republicans who are confident in Mueller conducting a fair investigation is only 44%, and this is coming from the party of law and order that routinely sides with cops in cases of police misconduct involving minorities. Who would have thought that Republicans would think an older white male Republican prosecutor could possibly be unfair to their guy, when all those older white male prosecutors have seemingly been fair and just to all those gunned down minorities

Indeed, if there’s one person I consider a flaming liberal, it’s the ex-Marine 12-year director of the FBI

And a registered Republican as well.

That too.

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61% among Mormons? I, uh... I find that hard to believe

[KingSweden]

Ipsos

December 07, 2017

Disapprove: 59.1%
Approve: 36.7%
Mixed feelings: 4.2%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/

18-34: 70% disapproves, 27% approves.

More than 2/3 of younger Americans despise this President.  Sad!  #ToxicTrump  #Party of Roy Moore

Honest to God, I know of like 10 young Trump voters personally who regret their vote now. And I didn't even bring the conversation up.

That’s a positive sign honestly

[KingSweden]

Monmouth, Dec 10-12, 806 adults (change from Sept)

Approve 32 (-8)
Disapprove 56 (+7)

Record (by far) low approval and high disapproval for this poll.

Generic Congressional ballot: 51 D, 36 R

Good lord.

[KingSweden]

A *quarter* of Republicans?!

[KingSweden]

Those Michigan and Iowa polls are making me feel much better about McCaskill and Donnelly, so long as they get their voters out like bonkers.

The Midwest is realllly elastic

[KingSweden]

Mmmm...look at that under 35 number:



Permanent majority imminent

Dems are polling ahead with *seniors*.

[KingSweden]

ARG - New Hampshire

27% Approve
66% Disapprove

Source

ARRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGG

[KingSweden]

This is a disaster! How can Gallup take the daily updates away from us ? What else am I supposed to obsess over?

<whispering "I know it'll never be the same.  The magic is gone.  But as a pale memory of the real thing...">

Ras

Ipsos/Reuters

You’re just a shade... you’re just a shade of my real tracking poll. All your movements, all your non-movements... you’re the best poll I can find, but I’m sorry, you’re just not good enough

(Ten points to whoever can name the reference)

[KingSweden]

I ed up

Nah, its fine. I was a horrible poster before so it can only be expected that people think that I'm still trolling.

What prompted your change in approach?

[KingSweden]

I ed up

Nah, its fine. I was a horrible poster before so it can only be expected that people think that I'm still trolling.

What prompted your change in approach?

[KingSweden]

I ed up

Nah, its fine. I was a horrible poster before so it can only be expected that people think that I'm still trolling.

What prompted your change in approach?

It was pretty much a new years resolution.

All the trolling was me pretty much venting my anxiety about the 2018 midterms and life in general.

This may not mean much from a stranger on the Internet, but: that kind of self assessment and making those adjustments is an admirable trait, and you should be proud of yourself for taking these steps, even if it’s something as small in changing your approach to posting on an elections forum. These things cascade out to all aspects of life and learning to handle your anxiety/mood (when I was a teenager I had intense anger problems) will make you a happier and more fulfilled person given time.

[KingSweden]

Shock Poll From The Atlanta Journal Constitution/University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs:

Georgia:

36.7% Approve
58.7% Disapprove

Even Stacy Abrams could win with those numbers

[KingSweden]

Shock Poll From The Atlanta Journal Constitution/University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs:

Georgia:

36.7% Approve
58.7% Disapprove

Yeah, no.

I think it's a little low for Trump, but in the ballpark.  I would have guessed around 40% currently.

That’s probably reasonable

[KingSweden]

Shock Poll From The Atlanta Journal Constitution/University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs:

Georgia:

36.7% Approve
58.7% Disapprove

Yeah, no.

I think it's a little low for Trump, but in the ballpark.  I would have guessed around 40% currently.

That’s probably reasonable

If this had been a positive poll, you all wouldn't have given it any attention because of the decimals.

There are other reasons to be skeptical of this poll, and decimals is not one of them.

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

Dear Christ you are dumb

[KingSweden]

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

Should Donald Trump win re-election even if he wins as in 2016, then much will have changed between now (early 2018) and late 2020, much as much seems to have changed since November 2016. You need to show why Donald Trump will recover the sort of support that he had in the South and Midwest.

You are making a prediction of something very unlikely. No recent President has ever hemorrhaged support so quickly and severely as has Trump after his election.  

Alabama elected its first Democratic Senator since the 1990s.

...Sure, I am making some assumptions. So does any projection. But I have some historical evidence behind me. Disapproval is nearly impossible to undo. Politicians can pick up some undecided voters with slick, shrewd campaigning (as Obama turned about 45% approval at his low point into about 51% of the vote in 2012), but he could pick up very few voters who ever disapproved of his Presidency.

Yes, approval ratings like "45% approve, 48% disapprove" which was common for Obama in 2011  can become 51% of the vote. But note that 100-DIS made an unambiguous and unbreakable ceiling for Obama. I recall only one poll in which Obama ever came back from 50% or greater disapproval (51% disapproval with about 45% approval) in any state in which he eventually won that state. That was Ohio, and it was close. 

OK, maybe the current bad poll for Trump in Georgia is related to him saying something stupid. Maybe. He has said other things even more stupid, like saying that there are good people on both sides in the violent confrontation between normal Americans and fascist freaks. No, I say: there is no moral equivalency between fascists and non-fascists than there is between car thieves and people who refrain from car theft.

Is this poll of Georgia an exaggeration? Even if it is, recent polls of some states with some relevant similarities of demographics suggest that it is not far out of line. I can more easily imagine Trump losing Georgia 53-46 than 63-37. But I see a widespread collapse in support for the President. The only way in which he could recover some is if the Democrats take back both Houses of Congress and define the legislative agenda... and he accedes. Jerry Brown did much the same in California (simply invert the Parties) after Proposition 13, and got away with becoming a fiscal conservative. But Brown was clever enough to say something like "I'm not conservative -- I'm cheap!"

Of course, Jerry Brown is a shrewd politician -- shrewd enough to have been both the youngest and oldest Governor of California. Of course, Donald Trump isn't much of a politician, That makes all the difference in the world. Americans will be ready for a real politician as President in 2020, even if that means someone like Obama, who is as slick a pol as there is.   

 

The survey simply should not be taken into account because it is from a university, Quinnipiac and the university surveys always show a tendency to terrible numbers for Trump, you always underestimate the real value of clearly biased surveys.

Well, at least I know quickly to add you to my ignore list.

Can you refute my argument? Quinnipiac is practically never in line with other pollsters when it comes to Trump's approval and has to show ridiculous values. 32% approval and 40% disapproval of Republicans?

It’s an insane argument. Q-PAC May be an outlier on the downside, but a President in the roughly 37-39 range you would expect to have some polls showing around 40-41 and others in the mid to low 30s. That’s why you do averages.

If you have a critique about the demography of Q-Pac’s Sample then that’s one thing, but dismissing them purely for being a university is something completely else

[KingSweden]

Gallup 1/14

Approve: 38 (+1)
Disapprove: 57 (-1)

I think its fair to say that Trump has made serious headway since early December, even with all the various "scandals".

He had a few days in early December in the same ballpark, but it's certainly true that he's improved from his overall December standing. 

I would characterize it as he's recovered to his November levels after a December dip.

He seems to have a fairly stable range. A floor of about 36, and a ceiling of about 40. I doubt we see him outside either of those top and bottom ranges for any significant amount of time.

[KingSweden]

Those working against numbers are brutal