ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[KingSweden]

I really hope ND is the big surprise of election night.  I know everything points to her losing... but I hope either their is a silent women's vote, or when enough voters get in the voting booth they end up changing to Heitkamp b/c they think she will work the hardest of ND or think ND benefits from having a Senator in each party ... or something???

Of all the senate candidates and regardless of party (and from a very outside of ND perspective)... she seems very deserving of being in the senate.  She just strikes me as a very good, honest, down to earth, moderate, smart person, who works really hard for her state.

At this point, I just don't think an upset is going to happen. The polls seem to have moved out of the margin of error, and she is down by much more than she was back in 2012. Democrats are guaranteed to lose at least one Senate seat, and that will be this one. They could even lose Missouri, given that McCaskill is slightly trailing Hawley.

you say that as if we have had a plethora of polling in ND.

Granted this is a case where a preponderance or other factors are driving this analysis rather than polls alone

[KingSweden]

45% republican likely seems too low even in a year with heightened Dem turnout, but an interesting analysis.

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054808407704649730

I’d be curious if his claim that that was the actual breakdown in the last 2-3 cycles, seeing as ND has no voter registration

[KingSweden]

While I do agree with the pollster that the electorate shown in the Cramer+16 was complete garbage, the numbers shown by the pollster for Political ID are waaaaay too rosy.

I would personally say an electorate around 48% R, 20% I, and 32% D, but hey, Im no expert on ND Political Identification politics.

I’d be inclined to agree with this, which probably points to a low single digit Cramer win