2017 State Legislature Megathread

[KingSweden]

Title explains it all. For NJ and VA (and any special elections) in state legs

VA has 3 specials next week. Incumbent party is favored in all three

[KingSweden]

In NJ, from DKE:

2nd District: Senator Jim Whelan (D) to retire

11th District: Senator Jennifer Beck (R) to be challenged by Monmouth Dem Chair Vin Gopal

[KingSweden]

In NJ, from DKE:

2nd District: Senator Jim Whelan (D) to retire

11th District: Senator Jennifer Beck (R) to be challenged by Monmouth Dem Chair Vin Gopal

Probably - 2 most interesting races in NJ next years. Both Beck and Gopal are A-type candidates and 2nd district is quite "purple".....

Each party holds one Assemblu seat apiece in the 2nd, I imagine those will be the top recruits.

[KingSweden]

Speaking of VA House, though, Dudenhefer is out and RRH is already writing it off as a D pickup

[KingSweden]

Per RRH, some shake ups in the WA Senate...

Brian Dansel is leaving to take a job with the Ag Department. This was a big surprise to me, the man is in his early thirties and in an ur-GOP seat in Northeast WA to the north of Spokane, aka The Place You Dont Go. He struck me as somebody who could hold this seat for decades. A replacement will be appointed soon, though it temporarily leaves the Senate 24-24. There is 0 chance Democrats take this seat.

Apparently Dennis Erickson may take a "temporary" job with the EPA and apparently Mike Baumgardner, who we all know as KingSweden's former State Sen who he hates, may take an admin job too. These are much riper targets, though who knows what temporary means. Dems *could* take Baumgardner's seat in a Trump midterm if he's not the incumbent. Neither of the Reps are particularly daunting politicians, not at Baumgartner's level at least. Erickson's is a tougher haul but we'll see.

[KingSweden]

Erickson's seat is about as safe for a Republican as you can get west of the Cascades. The Dutch Reformed vote in Lynden is really hard to overcome.

Baumgardner's seat is the only real potential target.

The parts of Spokane he represents are affluent suburbs - hardly a Trumpy area in the classical sense. It'll be interesting to see if Dems can seize the opportunity.

[KingSweden]

Per RRH, some shake ups in the WA Senate...

Brian Dansel is leaving to take a job with the Ag Department. This was a big surprise to me, the man is in his early thirties and in an ur-GOP seat in Northeast WA to the north of Spokane, aka The Place You Dont Go. He struck me as somebody who could hold this seat for decades. A replacement will be appointed soon, though it temporarily leaves the Senate 24-24. There is 0 chance Democrats take this seat.

Apparently Dennis Erickson may take a "temporary" job with the EPA and apparently Mike Baumgardner, who we all know as KingSweden's former State Sen who he hates, may take an admin job too. These are much riper targets, though who knows what temporary means. Dems *could* take Baumgardner's seat in a Trump midterm if he's not the incumbent. Neither of the Reps are particularly daunting politicians, not at Baumgartner's level at least. Erickson's is a tougher haul but we'll see.

Baumgardner's seat was held by a Dem prior to him winning in 2010. 

That's right, Chris Parr.

[KingSweden]

Morris County Democrats would do well in challenging Anthony M. Bucco, Jr., who represents Christie's Morris County base. He is the same assemblyman who questioned Obama's birth records like Trump. If Donald Trump has a horrible approval rating by the fall, Democrats would be wise to invest in the 25th District and go into a red district.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/nj_assemblyman_says_jerome_cor.html

But is he beatable? I think Dems will have a good year in NJ but Morris is Morris

[KingSweden]

Ballotpedia calls this the most consequential election since Nov 8, 2016:

https://ballotpedia.org/Delaware_state_legislative_special_elections,_2017

I still think Democrats are pretty strongly favored here, but it'll be an interesting one.

[KingSweden]

Looks like the GOP is now the favorite to pickup SD-02. http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/nj/NJ-Dems-pick-new-candidate-in-close-Senate-race-.html

This and Beck's seat could cancel one another out.

[KingSweden]

I have a hard time seeing anyone take down machine boss Steve Sweeney but YMMV