Don't Get Cocky: An Observation

[KingSweden]

I think a lot of our Republican posters misunderstand some of our Dems and think that a few of us are indicating that Repubs will never again be able to win an election once there are enough minorities and young liberals to outvote the GOP base consistently. This is nonsense, of course. The two parties have been around since the 1850s and aren't going anywhere.

However, it's not that the party will never be able to win "because demographics," it's that the Overton Window of policy and the political center will inevitably move left as the country's population moves left. This includes old Boomers and Gen Xers who will become ever more skeptical of ideas like the Ryan plan once they are actually on Medicare and Social Security. The GOP will, at some point, move left as the Democratic party continues to move even further left.

The party is too entrenched and established to go away. They will win Presidential elections, maybe even some by landslides, and they will continue to succeed in Congress in both Houses, likely often controlling both Houses - but as the generational shift continues and the demographics change, they WILL have to change which voters they are appealing to and how. The salient issues of the day will be different. Voter ID and all those things etc. to stop that from happening will only work for so long. The GOP of the 2030s and 2040s will likely look very different from that of today. The coalition they assemble to win national and Congressional elections will look different from the one they do now, as will the one Democrats stitch together to win.