If Dems lose the Senate in 2014, will they win it back in 2016?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

The way I see it, 2016 is essentially reverse 2014. Republicans have two possible pickups, NV and CO, but they defend the rest of the seats, just as Democrats have KY and GA but defend the rest. It will probably be tougher for Dems though, unless vulnerable incumbents like Toomey and Johnson start retiring (quite unlikely, they are younger and healthier than the senators who are retiring this year). However Kirk, Johnson and Toomey are arguably weaker than Begich, Pryor, Landrieu and Hagan. I would say the floor for Democrats in 2016 is probably R+1 or no change in a positive R year, losing NV and possibly CO while taking IL or WI, and upwards to D+7 or 8 in a good year for Dems, losing none and taking IL, WI, PA, FL, NH, MO, NC and maybe AZ or OH.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Yes, I mean, Johnson and Kirk are up, that could win back the Senate if the Republicans get 51-49 in 2014, not to mention Rubio, who could run for President, and if he does, West is probably the most likely to get Nominated, and he would lose if Schultz or someone else entered, and there's a possibility of Paul's seat being more contested if he runs as well, Chandler could run.

Here's a best case Scenario in 2016 (For the Dems [for me at least])

Democratic Net gain of +9

Ron Johnson is defeated by Russ Feingold
Roy Blunt is defeated by Jay Nixon
Dan Coats is defeated by Evan Bayh
Kelly Ayotte/Charles Bass is defeated by Carol Shea Porter
Mark Kirk is defeated by Lisa Madigan/Tammy Duckworth
Pat Toomey is defeated by Joe Sestak
John Boozman* is defeated by Mike Beebe
Richard Burr is defeated by Clay Aiken/Bev Perdue/G. K. Butterfield
Marco Rubio/Allen West is defeated by Debbie Wasserman Schultz

The Dems best case scenario involves losing Ohio?

Portman is fairly popular,

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/in-ohio-hillary-clinton-lead-shows-frustration-with-gop.html#more

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Yeah, if only he did something to piss off the tea party, like endorsing gay marriage or something

Even so, the Democrats need a credible challenger, who would that be? Strickland doesn't seem to care, Fischer'd be a joke, Brunner's a nobody, and I can't think of anyone else. I mean, Portman has to either be running for President or have a very good opponent for Republicans to lose the Seat.

what about Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald

At that point he'd either be a first term Governor which would essentially rule him out of the running, as he'd be jumping from one campaign to the next, or fresh out of a defeat, and probably wouldn't be up to a second campaign in four years.