Safe Republican States

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I decided against including states like Texas and South Carolina that could trend D in the future. I also did not include the Dakotas as Obama came within 10% in 2008, and do elect a lot of Democrats down-ticket.

50% saturation means it is safe now, 30% means that it is not safe but will likely be safe within the next decade or so.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

These are the states that I think are fairly safe for Republicans for at least the next decade or so in a generic election.  The darker blues are the ones that they should have to put almost no effort to win and the light blues are the ones they'll probably need to pay just a little attention to just to be on the safe side.  This is probably the base that Republican strategists start off with at the beginning of every election cycle.

Agreed except I would make Mississippi darker (it is safer than it looks) and switch Georgia with Indiana.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Ah I see. I know the oil industry in North Dakota is a big factor in its Republican Lean. I'm fairly sure energy is a factor with Alaska as well.

The Mormon populations are clearly a massive factor in Utah and Idaho, probably because of the socons in the Republican Party. The two states aren't really as conservative as they look-a Democrat held a House seat in Idaho for a term from 2009-2011, and of course we all know about Jim Matheson, holding on narrowly in an R+16 district.