Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,896
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« on: July 14, 2013, 01:40:35 PM » |
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« edited: July 14, 2013, 02:54:08 PM by Pessimistic Antineutrino »
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Several of the major bellwether states of the 20th century included Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, and Delaware.
Delaware lost bellwether status after 2000 and 2004, when it went reliably D. In 2012, its PVI was D+8.
New Mexico arguably lost bellwether status after 2008. It was not considered a swing state at all in 2012.
Missouri narrowly went McCain in 2008, breaking a perfect streak of 48 years. It went for Romney by a considerable margin, and is not considered a major swing state anymore.
Nevada is trending D fast, and many do not consider it to be a major swing state.
Of these five major bellwether states only Ohio is considered to be a true swing state. What other states might possibly stay close to the national center for the next few decades?
I would say Florida is one. It hasn't trended much at all, and sticks close to the national average, with a slight R tilt. With its huge electoral vote count and close to even PVI could it possibly be this century's Missouri? Or is the concept of a bellwether state dying off as the country grows more polarized?
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