Are future Democratic presidents likely to carry Arizona?
Had Barack Obama received increases, as is normally the case with incumbents re-elected to second full terms, he would have won over Arizona.
Take at least the post-television period beginning with Dwight Eisenhower, in the 1950s, and most incumbents garner an additional 3 to 5 percent points with their re-election, over their first-term election, margins.
Obama would have lost Indiana and Nebraska #02 (Omaha) to a Republican pickup for both going to Mitt Romney. The 44th president would have countered by flipping Georgia and Arizona.
Electoral-vote score, for this scenario, would have been Obama going from 365 (in 2008) to 374 (for 2012).
By the way, is NE-02 a fluke, like Indiana was seen to be, or did Romney win it because Obama gave up there completely? Without Obama campaigning there, it ended up closer than Georgia and Arizona, both "swing states", the latter by 2%.
