Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
Posts: 27,547
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« on: June 07, 2009, 11:55:38 PM » |
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Oh, I feel more confident about my call every day. But then again, I'm not particularly addicted to headlines (especially not government-manipulated ones).
As I have repeated all year, watch the bond market. Both the long-end (10yrs) and the short-end (2yrs) have been in an effective crash over the past few weeks, with the spread flattening (especially Friday, which was very ugly).
This can't go on for much longer and it will affect all things - the guess is trying to figure out whether the next credit contraction begins in one month, 3-4 months or 6 months, in my mind. We may have already seen it start (thinking of Latvia actually). But sometimes you have to wait for the material effects (markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent).
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