Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Sam Spade]

I expect Zogby to say that the informercial brought undecideds, soft Dems, and a few republicans back to Obama.  He will show Obama up 10 at minimum, maybe 12, by Saturday.  By Monday night it will be a statistical dead heat again with Obama up 2 or 3.  Tuesday at 5pm he'll show Obama back at 5 for his final prediction.  The man is slime.

With the exception of the last sentence, I agree with this man.

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 30, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	50.2%	43.3%	O+6.9%	O+2.2%	It's Zogby!
Rasmussen	50.88%	46.21%	O+4.67%	O+1.50%	Today's sample mirrors yesterday.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	NC	No change for five days.
Hotline	48%	42%	O+6%	M+1%	Considering the lack of movement over the past few days, the sample was probably better for McCain than the one which bumped off.
R2000/DKos	50%	45%	O+5%	M+1%	Still trending upward for McCain here.
Gallup
Expanded	51%	44%	O+7%	NC	Kind of odd sample bumped on.
Traditional	50%	45%	O+5%	O+2%
IBD/TIPP	47.7%	43.6%	O+4.1%	O+1.1%	Looks like a good Obama sample bumped on.
ABC/WP	52%	44%	O+8%	O+1%	Nothing much going on here.
POLLS AVERAGE	49.79%	44.33%	O+5.46%	O+0.48%	Slight bump back for Obama today.

[Sam Spade]

Table updated with TIPP/Gallup.

[Sam Spade]

Daily tracker update complete.

[Sam Spade]

My polling firm:

Obama 50.1 (-0.1)
McCain 43.1 (-0.2)
Undecided 6.8 (+0.3)

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 31, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	50.1%	43.1%	O+7.0%	O+0.1%	It's Zogby!
Rasmussen	50.86%	46.89%	O+3.97%	M+0.70%	Haven't checked today's sample yet.
Battleground	49%	45%	O+4%	O+1%	Slight move down for McCain.
Hotline	48%	41%	O+7%	O+1%	Ditto.
R2000/DKos	51%	45%	O+6%	O+1%	Ditto.
Gallup
Expanded	52%	43%	O+9%	O+2%	Good McCain sample bumped off.
Traditional	51%	43%	O+8%	O+3%
IBD/TIPP	48.2%	43.8%	O+4.4%	O+0.3%	Looks like a good Obama sample bumped on.
ABC/WP	53%	44%	O+9%	O+1%	Slight movement towards Obama.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.21%	43.97%	O+6.24%	O+0.72%	Slight movement towards Obama today.

[Sam Spade]

I gave it 9:1 odds of showing a lead, Sam only said it'd be at least tied.

Please at least quote me correctly next time.  Thanks. 

After the ten point movement the last four days, I am willing to bet even money that Zogby shows McCain within a couple of points or even ahead sometime before the election.

Another thing: Friday night/Halloween polling is bound to be horrible.  Do not trust it one bit.

Zogby polls (*supposedly*) during the daytime, so he's actually exempt from this edict.

[Sam Spade]

Tracker (finally) updated.

[Sam Spade]

Folks, remember what I said Friday evening.  Do not trust Halloween night polling.  Even if it is correct or shows a pro-McCain result (which it is unlikely to considering who is out).  I've been reading up a bit on Zogby's polling practices, and my sample today is partially Halloween night polling, so there.

[Sam Spade]

Diageo/Hotline - Sunday, Nov. 2:

Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 45 (+1)

Diageo started pushing their leaners yesterday.  I don't like it.  Or at least tell us who they are.

[Sam Spade]

Two trackers for the price of one...

Daily Tracker Table - November 1, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.1%	44.1%	O+5.0%	M+2.0%	It's Zogby!
Rasmussen	51.25%	46.47%	O+4.78%	O+0.81%	Good sample for Obama (Halloween).
Battleground	49%	45%	O+4%	NC	No polling done today.
Hotline	51%	44%	O+7%	NC	Started pushing the leaners without telling us.
R2000/DKos	51%	44%	O+7%	O+1%	Movement towards Obama.
Gallup
Expanded	52%	42%	O+10%	O+1%	More movement towards Obama (Halloween).
Traditional	52%	42%	O+10%	O+2%
IBD/TIPP	47.9%	43.4%	O+4.5%	O+0.1%	Not much going on here.
ABC/WP	53%	44%	O+9%	NC	Ditto.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.53%	44.12%	O+6.41%	O+0.17%	Slight movement towards Obama (ignoring Zogby).

Daily Tracker Table - November 2, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.5%	43.8%	O+5.7%	O+0.7%	It's Zogby!
Rasmussen	51.42%	46.50%	O+4.92%	O+0.14%	Obviously, very similar to the sample that dropped off
Battleground	49%	45%	O+4%	NC	No polling done today.
Hotline	50%	45%	O+5%	M+2%	Slight movement towards McCain.
R2000/DKos	51%	44%	O+7%	NC	As noted, the one-day sample was one of the better ones on this poll in a while for McCain.
Gallup
Expanded	52%	43%	O+9%	M+1%	Around and around we go.
Traditional	51%	43%	O+8	M+2%
IBD/TIPP	46.7%	44.6%	O+2.1%	M+2.4%	Need to check what dropped off, but a good day for McCain probably bumped on.
ABC/WP	54%	43%	O+11%	O+2%	Good sample for Obama bumped on.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.39%	44.36%	O+6.03%	M+0.38%	Slight movement towards McCain.

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP - November 2, 2004
Obama 46.7 (-1.2)
McCain 44.4 (+1.0)
Undecided 8.9% (+0.2%)

[Sam Spade]

Folks, remember what I said Friday evening.  Do not trust Halloween night polling.  Even if it is correct or shows a pro-McCain result (which it is unlikely to considering who is out).  I've been reading up a bit on Zogby's polling practices, and my sample today is partially Halloween night polling, so there.

I disagree with the assessment that Halloween would be a good night for Obama generically. A lot of adults with children will be out, but a lot of young adults will also be out (as Halloween has increasingly become a holiday for 20 and 30-somethings as well as children). Plus, Halloween means vacationing for the weekend is much less likely.

You're also missing Friday night high school football in a good part of this country.  And you're forgetting how the tracking polls reacted with Bush in 2004 on Halloween.

It's just a bad night to poll, but it'll be off the tracker for the final day.

[Sam Spade]

.... and the TIPP gets headline treatment by Drudge.

In other news, I hear the Pope is still Catholic.

[Sam Spade]

Considering that the McCain +1 sample falls off tomorrow, I see a Zogby surge to Obama +10 or 11 by election day.

[Sam Spade]

Time to put up the daily tracker since three polls are already in...

Daily Tracker Table - November 3, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	50.9%	43.8%	O+7.1%	O+1.4%	It's Zogby!
Rasmussen	51.42%	46.50%	O+4.92%	O+0.14%	Obviously, very similar to the sample that dropped off
Battleground	49%	45%	O+4%	NC	No polling done today.
Hotline	50%	45%	O+5%	M+2%	Slight movement towards McCain.
R2000/DKos	51%	45%	O+6%	M+1%	Another strong McCain sample for this poll.
Gallup
Expanded	53%	42%	O+11%	O+2%	The final call.
Traditional	53%	42%	O+11%	O+3%
IBD/TIPP	46.7%	44.6%	O+2.1%	M+2.4%	Need to check what dropped off, but a good day for McCain probably bumped on.
ABC/WP	54%	43%	O+11%	O+2%	Good sample for Obama bumped on.
POLLS AVERAGE	51.63%	43.60%	O+8.03%	O+0.97%	Not all polls updated yet.

[Sam Spade]

R2K / Kos has shown a closing - almost all in McCain's numbers, Obamas been very stable

This has been virtually all due to republicans coming back to him, with the gap in indy support fairly steady.

I know.  I'm just acknowledging that there is a load of difference between a 4-6 point race and an 8-12 point race.  And that's even with Kos' aggressive weighting (which is too aggressive, especially with, say, Hispanics).

[Sam Spade]

R2K / Kos has shown a closing - almost all in McCain's numbers, Obamas been very stable

This has been virtually all due to republicans coming back to him, with the gap in indy support fairly steady.

I know.  I'm just acknowledging that there is a load of difference between a 4-6 point race and an 8-12 point race.  And that's even with Kos' aggressive weighting (which is too aggressive, especially with, say, Hispanics).

You said what where?

Anyway, in your cryptic way, you realy think its going to be a knife-edge election, don't you?

Oh, it has to do with my earlier talk about pollster Armageddon.  No biggie.

As I said before, I'm still trying to get my fingers around this election.  It could be a blowout  It could be close.  My likely answer will be to stay conservative, go in-between those two possibilities, and predict a 4-6 point Obama win, fwiw.

[Sam Spade]

Diageo Hotline Poll
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Battleground Poll
Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 44 (-1)

[Sam Spade]

So, I guess the cell phone effect doesn't really exist (or at least not yet).  (yawns)

[Sam Spade]

Minor observation:

I made the observation before the election that the number of undecideds was large and that therein would lie the polling issues.  Since most pollsters pushed the undecideds, we were left assuming that they would truly go where they did.

In the end, they did go where they did. 

However, the polls that didn't push them as hard as, say, Rasmussen or Pew did in the end, ended up underestimating him at the end by a couple of points.  That's the extent of the Bradley Effect now (not much).

Of course, Gallup f.ucked up the undecided pushing yet again.

[Sam Spade]

Minor observation:

I made the observation before the election that the number of undecideds was large and that therein would lie the polling issues.  Since most pollsters pushed the undecideds, we were left assuming that they would truly go where they did.

In the end, they did go where they did. 

However, the polls that didn't push them as hard as, say, Rasmussen or Pew did in the end, ended up underestimating him at the end by a couple of points.  That's the extent of the Bradley Effect now (not much).

Of course, Gallup f.ucked up the undecided pushing yet again.

Late deciders split 50-50.

Late deciders (per the exit polls) is not what I'm observing.

[Sam Spade]

This thread is hilarious.