Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Sam Spade]

After the ten point movement the last four days, I am willing to bet even money that Zogby shows McCain within a couple of points or even ahead sometime before the election.

[Sam Spade]

On his website...

"I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go." - John Zogby
lol...  such an attention whore.

[Sam Spade]

Zogster
Obama 49.4%(-1.7)
McCain 44.1%(+2.5)

Clearly, McCain is going to win by a landslide.

[Sam Spade]

Zogster
Obama 49.4%(-1.7)
McCain 44.1%(+2.5)

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LOL Zogby, you want to be in the news, right ?!

With his weighting, that type of Independent margin would be consistent with a five-point lead.

[Sam Spade]

wow this is almost as awesome as that time Obama won the California primary by 14 points... oh wait...

That's the Zogby election day surge (also saw it in New Hampshire 2008 Dem primary and Florida 2000 (from Gore +10 to Gore +1, lol))  This is something different.

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 26, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.4%	44.1%	O+5.3%	M+4.3%	Who knows - it's Zogby!  Seriously though, a huge Obama sample did fall off today.
Rasmussen	52.46%	44.00%	O+8.46%	O+0.57%	Another good Obama sample.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	NC	No polling done today.
Hotline	50%	42%	O+8%	O+1%	A good Obama sample should fall off tomorrow.
R2000/DKos	51%	40%	O+11%	M+1%	Ditto.
Gallup
Expanded	52%	43%	O+9%	O+1%	I have some real commentary on Gallup that I may post later.  It's now been over a week that the so-called "Expanded" model picks up less likely voters than the "Traditional" model.
Traditional	50%	45%	O+5%	M+2%
IBD/TIPP	46.5%	43.3%	O+3.2%	M+0.7%	Hard to tell.
NOT RELEASED
ABC/WP	52%	45%	O+7%	M+2%	I looked at the samples here yesterday, and it was pretty clear a strong Obama sample moved off today.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.17%	43.55%	O+6.62%	M+0.82%	Note: I do include Battleground in this average, even though it didn't poll yesterday or the day before.  If you wish not to, just remove and re-round.

[Sam Spade]

It's now been over a week that the so-called "Expanded" model picks up less likely voters than the "Traditional" model.

You mean "fewer"? Or?

Yes, fewer.  Poor word choice.

[Sam Spade]

It's now been over a week that the so-called "Expanded" model picks up less likely voters than the "Traditional" model.

You mean "fewer"? Or?

Yes, fewer.  Poor word choice.

Well that makes perfect sense. If the traditional model is just a check on whether people voted the past two elections, while the expanded model is based on questions about people's enthusiasm etc. Lots of Bush voters are going to stay home rather than go all the way over. As I've been saying for two years...

The traditional model is 13 questions that involves not just a check on whether people vote in past elections, but involves questions about who your representative is, basic political questions, and some other things that I forget.  Vorlon posted the list once, but I forget.

I remember the last time it appeared enthusiasm was going to determine an election.  So, we'll see whether you're right or not.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/2008%20New%20Hampshire%20Polling%20Methodology.pdf

This?

I'd be surprised if Gallup actually quizzes people.  That seems like it might provoke frustrated/embarrassed hang-ups.

At least from what Vorlon has said before, they do.

It's a different list of questions, but I recognize similar content (like where you go vote, for example).

[Sam Spade]

It's now been over a week that the so-called "Expanded" model picks up less likely voters than the "Traditional" model.

You mean "fewer"? Or?

Yes, fewer.  Poor word choice.

Well that makes perfect sense. If the traditional model is just a check on whether people voted the past two elections, while the expanded model is based on questions about people's enthusiasm etc. Lots of Bush voters are going to stay home rather than go all the way over. As I've been saying for two years...

The traditional model is 13 questions that involves not just a check on whether people vote in past elections, but involves questions about who your representative is, basic political questions, and some other things that I forget.  Vorlon posted the list once, but I forget.

I remember the last time it appeared enthusiasm was going to determine an election.  So, we'll see whether you're right or not.

No, I'm talking about *lack* of it.

Uh, what do you think I'm talking about? 

[Sam Spade]

Uh, what do you think I'm talking about? 

mypalfish 2004. ie, the "Democratic Mass Signup of Minorities and Young Voters will lead to Unprecedented Turnout - this looks like a landslide folks!" set. Which is *an aspect* of what I'm seeing, but not the whole story, and not something I'm taking at face value either.
Otherwise, what election were you referring to?
Of course it helps that, over where I am from, elections where "enthusiasm levels" are not an important factor are rare and in between.

In what elections has "lack of enthusiasm" looked like a factor in the polls?

[Sam Spade]

Table updated.

[Sam Spade]

ZOGBY MONDAY: Obama 49.9%; 45.1%... Developing...

[Sam Spade]

Battleground - 10/26
Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/26
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 42% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 27, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.9%	45.1%	O+4.8%	M+0.5%	Nothing terribly surprising here
Rasmussen	50.58%	45.96%	O+4.62%	M+3.84%	Massive McCain sample jumped on.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	NC	No polling done today.
Hotline	50%	42%	O+8%	NC	Looks to me like a good Obama sample replaced a good Obama sample.
R2000/DKos	50%	42%	O+8%	M+3%	Best McCain sample here in quite a while.
Gallup
Expanded	53%	43%	O+10%	O+1%	Not much going on here as far as I can tell.
Traditional	50%	45%	O+5%	NC
IBD/TIPP	47.0%	44.2%	O+2.8%	M+0.4%	Appears to be steady movement away from the undecideds, with McCain generally benefitting.
ABC/WP	52%	45%	O+7%	NC	Nothing much here.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.00%	44.28%	O+5.72%	M+0.89%	Generally, there appears to be more movement towards McCain.

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP - 10/27/08
Obama 47.0% (+0.5%)
McCain 44.2% (+0.9%)
Undecided 8.8% (-1.4%)

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Index Updated...

[Sam Spade]

ZOGBY TUESDAY: Obama 49%; McCain 45%; 6% Undecided.... Developing...

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 28, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.0%	44.7%	O+4.3%	M+0.5%	It's Zogby
Rasmussen	50.89%	46.01%	O+4.88%	O+0.28%	Good Obama sample jumped on.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	NC	Nothing going on here as far as I can tell.
Hotline	50%	42%	O+8%	NC	Ditto.
R2000/DKos	50%	43%	O+7%	M+1%	Still trending upward for McCain here.
Gallup
Expanded	51%	44%	O+7%	M+3%	A good McCain sample jumped on, but also a good Obama sample bumped off.
Traditional	49%	47%	O+2%	M+3%
IBD/TIPP	47.7%	43.7%	O+4.0%	O+1.2%	Either a good Obama sample jumped on or a good McCain one dropped off.  Tough to tell.
ABC/WP	52%	45%	O+7%	NC	Nothing much going on here.
POLLS AVERAGE	49.82%	44.49%	O+5.33%	M+0.39%	No big movement today.

[Sam Spade]

btw, I have a rumor that IBD/TIPP today will be Obama +4 (whatever that means in tenths of a percentage)

[Sam Spade]

Polling average updated for the day.

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 28, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.0%	44.7%	O+4.3%	M+0.5%	It's Zogby
Rasmussen	50.89%	46.01%	O+4.88%	O+0.28%	Good Obama sample jumped on.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	NC	Nothing going on here as far as I can tell.
Hotline	50%	42%	O+8%	NC	Ditto.
R2000/DKos	50%	43%	O+7%	M+1%	Still trending upward for McCain here.
Gallup
Expanded	51%	44%	O+7%	M+3%	A good McCain sample jumped on, but also a good Obama sample bumped off.
Traditional	49%	47%	O+2%	M+3%
IBD/TIPP	47.7%	43.7%	O+4.0%	O+1.2%	Either a good Obama sample jumped on or a good McCain one dropped off.  Tough to tell.
ABC/WP	52%	45%	O+7%	NC	Nothing much going on here.
POLLS AVERAGE	49.82%	44.49%	O+5.33%	M+0.39%	No big movement today.

On IBD/TIPP, I relooked over the samples and the sample that dropped off was the one that pushed McCain from 3.7 behind to 1.1 behind a week ago, probably one of the stronger McCain samples on the poll so far.  That should be included in the analysis.

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 29, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.1%	44.4%	O+4.7%	O+0.4%	It's Zogby!
Rasmussen	50.24%	47.07%	O+3.17%	M+1.71%	Today's sample reflects the aggregate result pretty well.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	NC	There should be a favorable Obama sample bumping off tomorrow.  Let's see where we are then.
Hotline	49%	42%	O+7%	M+1%	Considering the lack of movement over the past few days, the sample was probably better for McCain than the one which bumped off.
R2000/DKos	50%	44%	O+6%	M+1%	Still trending upward for McCain here.
Gallup
Expanded	51%	44%	O+7%	UC	Good Obama sample bumped on, I guess.
Traditional	49%	46%	O+3%	O+1%
IBD/TIPP	46.9%	43.9%	O+3.0%	M+1.0%	As mentioned last evening, a good Obama sample bumped off today.
NOT UPDATED
ABC/WP	52%	44%	O+8%	O+1%	A good McCain sample fell off today.
POLLS AVERAGE	49.53%	44.55%	O+4.98%	M+0.35%	Slow trend continues.

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP - October 29, 2008
Obama 46.9% (-0.8 )
McCain 43.9% (+0.2)
Undecided 9.2% (+0.6)

[Sam Spade]

Tracker fully updated.