Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Sam Spade]

RCP (for what its worth) says -5.0

Does that include Zogby and Kos.

Zogby, not Kos.

FWIW -

Rasmussen O+6 (O+1)
Gallup O+3/O+7 (O+1/O+3)
Hotline O+7 (nc)
IBD/TIPP O+5 (M+2)
Zogby O+3 (M+1)
Kos O+7 (nc)
GW/Battleground O+4 (old)

Average:  O+5.29

[Sam Spade]

RCP (for what its worth) says -5.0

Does that include Zogby and Kos.

Zogby, not Kos.

FWIW -

Rasmussen O+6 (O+1)
Gallup O+3/O+7 (O+1/O+3)
Hotline O+7 (nc)
IBD/TIPP O+5 (M+2)
Zogby O+3 (M+1)
Kos O+7 (nc)
GW/Battleground O+4 (old)

Average:  O+5.29

We have the seven tracking polls.  Last time around, the ABC/WP also did a tracking poll, but I guess that's not going to be the case this year.  Anyway, each of these polls have issues with me and two of them have no record (which is another problem), so just a few words:

Gallup
Purest LV model (traditional).  Has a tendency, historically, to underestimate one side's number if that side has weak enthusiasm.  Also can overestimate last minute movement. 

The new expanded model is a curiosity to me, mainly because I can't figure out which of the 13 questions they're removing.  It also seems to be a bit jumpy, which is what makes me a little leery of it, but who knows.

Gallup performed quite well in 2004, so long as they don't break down the undecideds the way they did (wtf?)

Rasmussen
In 2000, he had too much of a Republican weighting, plus an outlier sample at the end = disaster.  2004, he switched to a hard-weight of 39D, 35R, 26I and nailed it.  This year, he's using a dynamic weighting method that pretty much no one else does.

The dynamic weighting model is my only really big question concerning his polling methodology, frankly.  Otherwise, he looks to be polling using similar methods to 2004 when he performed quite well.

IBD/TIPP
Uses a hard weight of 39D, 35R, 26I.  Their methodology has always been pretty good in my mind.  My main concern right now is the smallness of their samples.  Even with the weighting, we're getting a lot of bumping and some silly internals.  Truthfully, as I might sound silly saying this, the Zogby/Hotline method of 300/400 voters would probably add a bit more stability to their poll.

Nailed 2004, as we all know.  Wrong winner in 2000 (as many polls did), but well within MOE, which is the key.

Zogby
Uses a hard weight of 38D, 36R, 26I (I'm pretty sure - it's the 2006 exit poll number).  Uses a whole lot of other weights and is well-known to occasionally massage out certain numbers if he thinks the poll should really read that result.

Zogby is the wildcard.  I don't particularly like his methodology (whatever one there is) and the polls often more represent his opinion than his polling data.  He's been a mile off before.  He's also nailed races that almost everyone else got wrong.  In particular, in 1996 and 2000, he was saying that the polls were way too Democratic (1996) or way too Republican (2000) than what the reality would be on election day.  Of course, in 2004, he changed his (actually, it would have been pretty accurate) prediction based on exit poll rumors (lol).

GWBattleground
Dead-on accurate in 1992 and 1996.  Off (within MOE) in 2000.  Slight Republican bias in 2004.

Of course, with the elimination of the party weighting, this poll really isn't the same as it was in the past - whether good or bad.  The rest of their methodology has always been fairly strong.

Hotline
No record.  I think their methodology is a little odd, actually kind of similar in its oddities to the Kos poll (but without the political issue).  We'll see how they perform.

R2000/Kos
See Hotline, except add political issues.  Also add the standard R2000 slight Dem bias.

[Sam Spade]

And Zogby is a Democrat, and I'd though R2K's founder was actually a GOP-leaning independent.  I think we're putting too much stock into the R2K/Kos-as-political-propaganda idea.

Del Ali - I don't think so.  Besides, R2000 has a history of polling for Democrats.

And btw, I'm not putting too much stock into it, Alcon.  But the fact is that it can't be ignored, which is the reason why I mention it.  

[Sam Spade]

Cool with me.  And I actually think the Zogby thing, which I hadn't heard, if it's true, is worth mentioning.  Zogby's...news-making...might be influenced by his clients.

The only thing I found supporting ChrisfromNJ's claims (on Google) is from this Daily Kos diary and it deals with a Zogby Interactive poll.  It would also make an important difference whether this was done before the horserace question or after it.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/15/13844/116

[Sam Spade]

Cool with me.  And I actually think the Zogby thing, which I hadn't heard, if it's true, is worth mentioning.  Zogby's...news-making...might be influenced by his clients.

The only thing I found supporting ChrisfromNJ's claims (on Google) is from this Daily Kos diary and it deals with a Zogby Interactive poll.  It would also make an important difference whether this was done before the horserace question or after it.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/15/13844/116

Poisons his later samples, since they're almost all the same.   I don't understand why Zogby would have done that...he's a Democrat, IIRC.

Right, because of the self-selected nature of his Interactive polls.  Well, regardless of anything, they're clearly junk. 

But they aren't the telephone poll, which is what I'm referring to.

[Sam Spade]

Yeah, I know, but unless the GOP is investing in him (in some sense), wtf?

It's been a long time since I played in the Zogby Interactive world, but your question is causing me to think about questions he's asked before. 

I know that, during 2007, his polls always had a number of questions that dealt with Hillary in a positive light, but I don't remember anything else.  There were a few Democratic slanted questions back then too.

[Sam Spade]

GWBattleground - 10/21
Obama 48 (-1)
McCain 47 (+2)

[Sam Spade]

Diageo Hotline Poll
Obama 47% (nc)
McCain 41% (-1)

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP for 10/21 (10/16-10/20)

McCain 40.9%  (-0.5%)
Obama 46.9% (+0.2%)
Undecided 13.2% (+0.3%)

[Sam Spade]

ZOGBY: OBAMA TAKES 10-POINT LEAD... DEVELOPING...

[Sam Spade]

ZOGBY: OBAMA TAKES 10-POINT LEAD... DEVELOPING...

Damn, I'm surprised Drudge actually put that up.

I should have put it in much larger font.

[Sam Spade]

ZOGBY: OBAMA TAKES 10-POINT LEAD... DEVELOPING...

Damn, I'm surprised Drudge actually put that up.

I should have put it in much larger font.

Also, the most amusing thing is trying to connect a 10-point national lead with Zogby's interactive polls...   It's silly.

[Sam Spade]

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/22
Obama 47% (nc)
McCain 42% (+1)

GWBattleground - 10/22
Obama 49% (+1)
McCain 47% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP
Obama 45.7%(-1.2)
McCain 42.0%(+1.1)

The sample that dropped off today looked like a bit of an outlier, imho.

[Sam Spade]

I have a rumor that Zogby will show Obama's lead increasing tomorrow (don't know by how much or anything)...

[Sam Spade]

ABC / Washington Post tracking poll

likely voters:

Obama: 54 % (+1)

McCain: 43 % (-1)

Looks good.  It is undeniable at this point.  There can be no doubt that the race is widening.  Obama looks like he is on his way to a big landslide.

I would be looking at one poll, especially that one.  Today, surprisingly, the results have been mixed.

ABC/WaPo is a good poll, easily the best of the news organization polls. I wouldn't consider it over Rasmussen or Gallup, but probably over pretty much everything else. Of course, you're certainly right that one poll does not a trend make, but the numbers overall have suggested that the McCain "comeback" was the polling fluke, not Obama's peak numbers. Of course, I don't expect Obama to improve past his peak lead of ~8 points, and to end slightly less than that ahead on Election Day (~6 points), but it will very obvious who will win come Nov. 4 unless some unforeseen Happening happens.

ABC/WP is ok, but a weird methodology.

[Sam Spade]

After the ten point movement the last four days, I am willing to bet even money that Zogby shows McCain within a couple of points or even ahead sometime before the election.

[Sam Spade]

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/23
Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 43% (+1)

GWBattleground - 10/23
Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 45% (-2)

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP
Obama 44.8% (-0.9)
McCain 43.7%  (+1.7)

Ut ohh...

I would say "ut ohh..." is right.  We now have two of the three major tackers showing greater than two point drop for Obama in two days.  It is not repeated on Rasmussen.  Watch tomorrows 'bots.

There's only one 'bot' poll.

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 23, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	52.2%	40.3%	O+11.9%	O+2.3%	Who knows - it's Zogby!
Rasmussen	51.66%	44.83%	O+6.83%	O+1.77%	Good McCain sample fell off today, replaced by good Obama sample, good Obama sample falls off tomorrow (all relative to the mean)
Battleground	49%	45%	O+4%	O+2%	Hard to tell.
Hotline	48%	43%	O+5%	NC	Not much movement here as far as I can see.
R2000/DKos	51%	41%	O+10%	NC	No real change going on here
Gallup
Expanded	51%	45%	O+6%	M+2%	Looks like Gallup midweek movement to me.
Traditional	50%	46%	O+4%	M+1%	Ditto.
IBD/TIPP	44.8%	43.7%	O+1.1%	M+2.6%	Looks like a good McCain sample fell on.
ABC/WP	54%	43%	O+11%	NC	No real change as far as I can tell here.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.15%	43.29%	O+6.86%	O+0.06%	Race looks stable to me.

[Sam Spade]

Zogby

Obama: 51 (-1)
McCain: 41 (+1)

51.3 to 41.0 to be exact.  Whatever, Zogby's worth the entertainment.

[Sam Spade]

Rest of the early morning released trackers...

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/24
Obama 50% (+2)
McCain 43% (nc)

GWBattleground - 10/24
Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 46% (+1)

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 24, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	51.3%	41.0%	O+10.3%	M+1.6%	Who knows - it's Zogby!
Rasmussen	51.80%	44.80%	O+7.00%	O+0.17%	Good Obama sample fell off replaced by another good Obama sample.  Good for Obama.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	M+1%	Hard to tell.  I think there may be a pro-McCain sample in the middle weighting it down a little (1-2 pts max), but who knows.
Hotline	50%	43%	O+7%	O+2%	Obviously, a good Obama sample came on today.
R2000/DKos	52%	40%	O+12%	O+2%	Good Obama sample came on today.
NOT UPDATED
Gallup
Expanded	51%	44%	O+7%	O+1%	I think a fairly decent Obama sample moved on.
Traditional	50%	45%	O+5%	O+1%
IBD/TIPP	45.8%	42.3%	O+3.5%	O+2.4%	Good Obama sample moved on.  Of course, this could really be just movement around the center.
ABC/WP	53%	44%	O+9%	M+2%	Hard to tell how the samples work here.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.43%	43.20%	O+7.23%	O+0.50%	Slight Obama gain, probably, from yesterday.  Regardless of what the numbers say, I still see this as a 5-7 point lead right now.

[Sam Spade]

Tracker updated.

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 25, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	51.1%	41.6%	O+9.5%	M+0.8%	Who knows - it's Zogby!
Rasmussen	52.32%	44.43%	O+7.89%	O+0.89%	The last three samples looks about the same to me.  I think today's and Wednesday's are a tad more pro-McCain than Thursday's, but whatever, not important...
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	NC	No polling done today.
Hotline	50%	43%	O+7%	NC	It is fairly likely that today's sample was more pro-McCain than yesterday, but maybe not.  Tough to tell.
R2000/DKos	52%	40%	O+12%	NC	Down from yesterday's bumper Obama sample.
Gallup
Expanded	51%	43%	O+8%	O+1%	The sample that moved on today probably wasn't as pro-Obama as yesterday, but moreso in terms of likelies.
Traditional	51%	44%	O+7%	O+2%
IBD/TIPP	45.8%	41.9%	O+3.9%	O+0.4%	Hard to tell.
ABC/WP	53%	44%	O+9%	NC	Hard to tell how the samples work here.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.53%	43.05%	O+7.48%	O+0.25%	Note: I do include Battleground in this average, even though it didn't poll yesterday.  If you wish not to, just remove and re-round.