GOP Congressional Wipeout Is the Buzz, and the End Is Near [Liddy Dole is Toast]

[Sam Spade]

How would the Democrats get to 60? Counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats, if they got lucky and did very well by taking Oregon and North Carolina, they're still only at 58. I suppose Kentucky is possibly shaping up to be #59. But 60?

I guess I just don't see Franken winning.

I agree on Franken.  Allen is toast.  GA seems like a real, real long-shot.

Wicker?  I don't see that either, but the probability is higher than the three above.

Moreover, I'm growing less and less confident of the government's ability to do away with Stevens.  It's not just the evidence screw-ups, I just don't think their case is that strong.  And Sununu has made a pretty good comeback (as I have said many times Shaheen is not a great candidate).

As mentioned on another thread, my DSCC fundraising e-mail today said that Dems held leads in 6 GOP seats.  Considering they ain't leading right now in MN, MS and KY, that e-mail translates into them not thinking they don't lead in one of either AK, NC, NH or OR (since they surely lead in VA, NM and CO).  I'm just trying to figure out which one.

[Sam Spade]

I'd be depressed in Kay freaking Hagan unseats Liddy Dole, but not as much as if Franken unseats Coleman.

I really don't know what's going on with Dole.  Is she running that terrible of a campaign?

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

As for Franken, he may be one of the worst challengers for a gimme seat that I've seen in a long while (1994 - Ollie North, maybe).  I'm almost sure he's down 4-5 points right now.

[Sam Spade]

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

The main cause of Hayes' woes has been the DCCC's aggressive spending in the NC-08. Over $600k spent in September and early October alone, and they've allotted over $1 million more for negative TV ads. By the end of this campaign, Hayes will have been sunk by the DCCC. if the national Democrats had been matched dollar-for-dollar by the NRCC or outspent by the NRCC, Hayes would likely be a favorite today. This is one district where the D-trip's CoH advantage may be the pivotal factor.

You have a point, but I really sense anti-incumbency as a major factor in NC right now (or at least that's what my gut tells me).  After all, in this environment, why is McCrory clearly ahead of Perdue?

[Sam Spade]

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

The main cause of Hayes' woes has been the DCCC's aggressive spending in the NC-08. Over $600k spent in September and early October alone, and they've allotted over $1 million more for negative TV ads. By the end of this campaign, Hayes will have been sunk by the DCCC. if the national Democrats had been matched dollar-for-dollar by the NRCC or outspent by the NRCC, Hayes would likely be a favorite today. This is one district where the D-trip's CoH advantage may be the pivotal factor.

You have a point, but I really sense anti-incumbency as a major factor in NC right now (or at least that's what my gut tells me).  After all, in this environment, why is McCrory clearly ahead of Perdue?

That's an interesting point about the governor's race. Perdue is essentially the proxy incumbent, so it logically follows that she would suffer in an anti-incumbent year. It would be ironic if Obama, McCrory and Hagan all won in NC. A year ago, each one of those candidates was the decided underdog.

btw, I'm going to try to do my House update this afternoon (finally).  Senate is done.  You and I disagree on a couple of races, but not big differences in my view.  I'll bump when complete.

How's Rice going?