Post debate: How would you rate the election at this point?

[Sam Spade]

Strong Lean Obama (whatever that means).  It's not Likely, quite yet.

[Sam Spade]

Strong Lean Obama (whatever that means).  It's not Likely, quite yet.

^^^

Same but medium-strong lean Obama, I'm not quite at strong lean, not yet.

Ugh.  Whatever 2-1 odds mean.

Anyway, my ranking is subject to revision vis-a-vis post debate polls, which won't come until Monday at the earliest/Tuesday for the tracking.  I have a couple of things that I'm looking for that others have failed to point out yet.  I also tend to be leery of quick "snap" polls, but that's just me.

[Sam Spade]

Strong Lean Obama (whatever that means).  It's not Likely, quite yet.

Agreed, I would say Obama is up by 4-5% nationally right now (just made a update to the prediction page suggesting a 4.5% Obama victory.

Too high.  It's only 3% right now.  But it certainly could be 4%-5% by Election Day.  Who knows.

[Sam Spade]

After seeing a day's worth of post-debate polling, I'm holding at strong lean Obama, or roughly a 1-2 shot for Obama in betting terms (i.e. 67%).

Basically, as far as I can figure, Obama has settled back into the 2%-4% natural holding pattern advantage that he should have against John McCain this whole election.

Another 2%-4% of margin in the polls is being provided by the economic crisis first and foremost and a good bit less by McCain's actions of the last few days before the debate.  If the election were being held today, it is quite possible that these numbers would show up in the polls.  They might not, however - partially has to do with enthusiasm and undecided movement.

I see that Vorlon sees about the same thing that I do - but a tad more bullish on the percentages for Obama.  Makes sense.