Alcon's all-purpose EARLY VOTING & REGISTRATION thread

[Sam Spade]

Georgia -- Not early voting, but some pretty astounding registration statistics.

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Cue Sam Space to explain why this means absolutely nothing whatsoever.

"Sam Space" (in Bob Dole terms) can't explain *whether it means something* or *whether it means nothing* unless I compare November 2004 to January 2008 to September 30 on a county-by-county basis (and you would probably need precinct numbers to be greatly accurate). 

Something which I don't have time for, Nym, sorry.    I'll see if I can pull up some rough numbers in a moment that might mean something...

[Sam Spade]

Roughly.  Including Active and Inactive voters.  The inactive voters skew marginally black (like 2%-3%), but the difference in numbers is not statistically significant in my mind.  Historically, that's about how they skew as well.

November 2004 (it was a little less than this)
*Black* 1,377,803 (27.71%)
*White* 3,388,498 (68.17%)
*Asian/Hispanic* 69,469 (1.40%)
*Other* 135,027 (2.72%)
Total 4,970,797

November 2008
*Black* 1,636,423 (29.23%)
*White* 3,556,524 (63.53%)
*Asian/Hispanic/Indian* 141,314 (2.52%)
*Other* 264,124 (4.71%)
Total 5,598,425

Census 2000
White/Non-Hispanic 62.6%
Black 28.5%
Asian/Hispanic/Indian/Other 7.8%
Two or other races 1.1%

Census 2006 (estimated)
White/Non-Hispanic 58.9%
Black 29.9%
Asian/Hispanic/Indian 10.7%
Two or more races 1.1%

I would have to go piece-by-piece through the Voter Turnout by Demographics part of the website to pick up 2000 numbers and registration numbers/changes by county.  Also, if I did that, it would only be active voters, not inactives...

I don't have the time for that now, so this is what you're going to get. 

[Sam Spade]

I'd argue it means nothing because it's in Georgia. However if these type of numbers are being repeated in Virginia and Florida...

...and North Carolina.


Stick a fork in McCain. He's finished.

The gains are much larger for blacks in Georgia.

I did the numbers in NC - it's only a shift of 0.75% total towards the blacks from the whites.  Latino numbers haven't changed much, actually.

I haven't taken the time for Virginia or Florida yet.  Give me time.

[Sam Spade]

Turnout of "active" voters is another interesting statistic:

November 2000 (Active Voter Turnout)
*Black* - Active RV 980,033 (25.42%)
*Black* - Turnout 615,723 (23.19%)
*White* - Active RV 2,792,479 (72.43%)
*White* - Turnout 1,993,493 (75.08%)
*Other* - Active RV 82,862 (2.15%)
*Other* - Turnout 46,109 (1.74%)
Total - Active RV 3,855,374
Total - Turnout 2,655,325 (69%)

November 2004 (Active Voter Turnout)
*Black* - Active RV 1,155,706 (27.20%)
*Black* - Turnout 834,331 (25.40%)
*White* - Active RV 2,917,322 (68.66%)
*White* - Turnout 2,344,632 (71.37%)
*Asian/Hisp/Other/Unknown* - Active RV 175,809 (4.14%)
*Asian/Hisp/Other/Unknown* - Turnout 106,177 (3.23%)
Total - Active RV 4,248,837
Total - Turnout 3,285,140 (77%)

October 1, 2008 (Active Voters)
*Black* - Active RV 1,445,153 (29.03%)
*White* - Active RV 3,176,520 (63.80%)
*Asian/Hisp/Other/Unknown - Active RV 357,031 (7.17%)
Total - Active RV 4,978,704

[Sam Spade]

So in other words, in total, there's about 150,000 more active voters in Tennessee than there was in 2004.

In comparison, North Carolina is right now about 530,000 more voters than in 2004.  Georgia has about 730,000 more.  I think I calculated that Ohio was about 200K to 300K.

[Sam Spade]

Isn't it 665,949?  In my red-texted post above?

And these numbers are only 2008, right?  Some additional number registered before the primaries, no?

Your number is newly registered voters, which can be new registrations, switches in registration or (in most places) reactivation of voter registration.

The number I am concerned with is...

Number of RV in 2008 minus
Number of RV in 2004

Which is not equal to the number of new registrations.  Remember, voters fall off for various reasons and they purge voters eventually.

That is the more important number, when it gets down to it, analyzed against changes in county and precinct registration.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/10/14/early_voting_in_cobb_none_who.html?cxntfid=blogs_political_insider

Early voting in Cobb: Not a single black voter abandoned the long line
Tuesday, October 14, 2008, 02:38 PM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just cast an early vote in Cobb County. Only took one hour, forty-five minutes — exactly three weeks before Election Day.

A long line folded itself three times in a relatively hot October sun, shortly before lunch-time. Perhaps a dozen people couldn’t stick it out — they left before getting to the front of the line.

Every one of those who gave up the effort was white. Once in, not a single African-American walked away while I was there. If voter fatigue becomes a factor over the next three weeks, and on Election Day itself, one has to wonder if Republicans are more likely to lose out than Democrats.

Statistically speaking, my vote is sure to have helped push early voting in Georgia over the 500,000 mark today — halfway to Secretary of State Karen Handel’s goal of 1 million.

As of close of business Monday, 499,582 ballots had been cast. And Cobb County has been averaging 1,400 early votes a day.

The racial percentage has dropped slightly, but not significantly. African-Americans, numbering 184,453, have cast 37 percent of all early votes in Georgia. At 11 a.m. in Marietta, at least half the line was made up of black voters. Possibly more.

This post is particularly amusing.  I like it.

Still, this post also shows the reason why blacks were such good slaves.

[Sam Spade]

According to the NC State Board of Elections, about 320.500 people have now voted early, 85.300 of them are African-American (27%).

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us

For purposes of comparison, in 2004, the exit poll said 26% of the voters in NC were black.

Which was undoubtedly incorrect.  NC placed black turnout at 18.5% in 2004.  Blacks were roughly about 20.25% of RV in 2004.  They are now a little over 21%.

[Sam Spade]

Although it's not much help in telling us *who voted*, Tennessee has a page that breaks down early voters by county...

http://www.tennessee.gov/sos/election/Early%20Voting%20Nov%202008.pdf

[Sam Spade]

Texas reports 340.000 voters on the first day of early voting yesterday.

And that's only the 15 largest counties ...

Breakdown:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct20.shtml

For comparison, first day 2004.

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2004/oct18.shtml

The numbers are all higher than in 2004 with the exception of Williamson (which looks odd to me - didn't get their numbers in time perhaps, we'll see).

[Sam Spade]

Lot of white votes came in yesterday in Georgia.  Black % went from 36.66% to 35.57%.

In NC, D56-R27-O17 registration, 29.0% black, 10.9% 18-29.  Minor increase for blacks, minor decrease for young-uns.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct21.shtml

Texas 15 largest counties - two days in.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct21.shtml

Texas 15 largest counties - two days in.

Hmm. Almost doubled compared with '04.

7.20% is not really double 4.31%.  It's more like 70% greater.  But whatever... 

[Sam Spade]

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct21.shtml

Texas 15 largest counties - two days in.

Hmm. Almost doubled compared with '04.

7.20% is not really double 4.31%.  It's more like 70% greater.  But whatever... 

I reexamined the numbers again.  The most interesting thing about the Texas numbers is the high Harris early voting totals and the exceptionally pathetic early voting totals along the border.

[Sam Spade]

Your Georgia numbers are off.

[Sam Spade]

Crap, I think you're right.  Georgia's Secretary of  State has it at %35.522454972372594510384093787476

That's correct.

[Sam Spade]

Just running through Harris County places:

Early voting is much higher in the black parts of town and the one or two liberal white parts.  Ok, but not great in the white Republican areas.  Pathetic in the Hispanic areas.

About what I would expect.

[Sam Spade]

Texas still hasn't updated Friday or Saturday, but if you look around the county websites for the big counties, you can find the numbers for those two days.  Bexar County has a similar system, but I don't know the county *that* well.

For example, Harris is now up to 16.90% of RV as of Saturday.

More importantly, this table and map can tell you where the strong points of voting are if you know the county as well as I do.    That's kinda what I was talking about couple of days ago.

http://harrisvotes.org/docs/EVPA.pdf

http://harrisvotes.org/docs/earlyvotinglocations_schedule_Nov2008_ENG.pdf

[Sam Spade]

Going to post a daily Texas early voting tracker table when I get down to it.

The trends that mentioned earlier are still pretty apparent in the numbers, just as an opening remark.

[Sam Spade]

Texas Early Voting Tracker (2 days left)

Harris
October 28: 29.04% of RV (563,446)
Total Early (2004) 22.55% of RV (436,896)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 40.91%

Dallas
October 28: 32.54% of RV (393,142)
Total Early (2004) 28.16% of RV (346,729)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 50.42%

Tarrant
October 28: 36.88% of RV (353,829)
Total Early (2004) 33.27% of RV (305,666)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 54.57%

Bexar
October 28: 34.07% of RV (317,198)
Total Early (2004) 30.25% of RV (274,786)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 57.81%

Travis
October 28: 37.64% of RV (229,324)
Total Early (2004) 37.17% of RV (217,428)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 61.75%

Collin (55,116 - 14.92% since 2004)
October 28: 39.77% of RV (168,855)
Total Early (2004) 36.25% of RV (116,632)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 47.27%

El Paso (+17,687 - 4.76% since 2004)
October 28: 22.44% of RV (87,218)
Total Early (2004) 25.93% of RV (96,420)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 56.86%

Denton (+36,825 - 11.45% since 2004)
October 28: 36.15% of RV (129,616)
Total Early (2004) 36.25% of RV (116,632)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 55.27%

Hidalgo (+35,395 RV - 13.12% since 2004)
October 28: 21.37% of RV (65,228)
Total Early (2004) 22.90% of RV (61,970)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 54.51%

Fort Bend (+44,638 RV - 17.55% since 2004)
October 28: 40.45% of RV (120,936)
Total Early (2004) 33.01% of RV (83,965)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 51.46%

Montgomery (+27,829 RV - 13.00% since 2004)
October 28: 33.75% of RV (81,639)
Total Early (2004) 32.71% of RV (70,023)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 52.26%

Williamson (+31,633 RV - 15.79% since 2004)
October 28: 36.12% of RV (83,790)
Total Early (2004) 38.50% of RV (77,142)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 60.17%

Nueces (-2,769 RV - (1.37%) since 2004)
October 28: 25.74% of RV (51,214)
Total Early (2004) 26.29% of RV (53,031)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 50.72%

Galveston (+3,131 RV - 1.68% since 2004)
October 28: 31.76% of RV (60,041)
Total Early (2004) 34.81% of RV (64,714)
% of Vote Cast Early (2004) 61.06%

Cameron (not tracked in 2004)
October 28: 17.61% of RV (30,683)

[Sam Spade]

That post blinds me. What does it mean. Does Obama have Texas wrapped up?

These are all urban/suburban counties.  Some of the counties are not uniform and require a more detailed look at each of the polling places.  Others are pretty uniform.

[Sam Spade]

Updated the Texas tracker.

[Sam Spade]

Just in case anyone wants to know where I am, I'm doing a decently in-depth review of Tennessee early voting, which concluded yesterday and whose numbers have been posted in full today.