New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll

[Sam Spade]

Interesting that you can gauge all these polls simply by partisan breakdown and a seven to eight point spread between Dems and GOP gives you a push mostly.

[Sam Spade]

9-16

Obama 48 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

Please sticky this, and please remove DailyKos from the title, as I think it has been irrefutably decided by arguments in other threads that when a partisan organisation merely publishes or orders the poll, their name doesn't get included with the Poll title. Thanks.

If we could only prove the last part of your first sentence...

[Sam Spade]

For those who post on Daily Kos (I was banned many moons ago, soon after registering), you should tell them that they need to change the party ID numbers on this poll:

Dem 391/1100 = 35.55% Dem (36%)
GOP 278/1100 = 25.27% GOP (25%)
Ind 331/1100 = 30.09% Ind (30%)
Oth 100/1100 = 9.09% Oth (9%)

[Sam Spade]

09/20/2008

Obama   50% (+1)
McCain   42% (nc)


I'd be interested to see what the numbers would look like reweighted to a 5-point partisan gap.

Weighed to Rasmussen:
Obama 48.04%
McCain 44.80%

[Sam Spade]

Sunday September 21, 2008
Obama 49%
McCain 42%

McCain has the momentum! Last nights sample was only Obama +6!

Erosion of the bump.  Still, looking at the internal dynamics of this thing, if McCain starts getting back above Obama +4, he'll probably start leading nationally again.  That would be my guess.

[Sam Spade]

Am I going to have to bump this one???

Monday, September 22, 2008
Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 43 (+1)

[Sam Spade]

Stickied to satisfy Lewis and to assuage any other concerns of my conservative bias.

Oh yeah, and to stop annoying Sam with having to bump it every day.

I'll only be bumping it up when it shows results not so great for Democrats.  If the results are great for Democrats, I can guarantee that *other people* will beat me.

[Sam Spade]

Now that this has been stickied, can I please ask the Daily Kos kids again to tell their mentor:

DEM 389/1100 = 35.36%
GOP 281/1100 = 25.45%
IND 331/1100 = 30.09%
OTH 100/1100 = 9.09%

Which means the sample is now technically 35D-25R-30I-9O.  Not 35D-26R-30I-9O.

Thank you.  

[Sam Spade]

Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Obama 48 (-1)
McCain 44 (+1)

[Sam Spade]

What would this be with a re-fixed party ID... say Rasmussen's?

Any help would be appreciated.

Presently, since there are too many Ind/Oth in the sample (imho), the difference is not great:

McCain 45.60
Obama 47.65

[Sam Spade]

Seriously, did you get a chance to e-mail him? He keeps trumpeting how great he is for revealing the internals...

Nah, but I should do that though.  Today.

[Sam Spade]

This poll's partisan breakdowns are the same as Gallup's, according to this post:

Pollster        D     R     I     (Dem-Rep)
Research 2000:  35    26    30    +9

Yeah, this is the post I alluded to above.

It's actually 35D, 25R, 30 I, which I promise that I will point out, brittain33.