"The Vorlon" says "Hi" to everybody :)

[Sam Spade]

Well, I certainly look forward to seeing you back a bit more (which isn't saying that much). 

[Sam Spade]

I guess it's about time for me to ask a few questions, because the comments you made above leave it open:

1) You say that the Obama-McCain race could be amazing.  What exactly do you mean by that (and I know its a very general statement), other than the plain observation that we will either elect the first *black* president (not Bill Clinton) or we will elect the oldest president during the open presidential election with the worst dynamics against his party since 1952 (I think it's worse than 1976, but you may disagree)? 

I am presuming that you think McCain has a reasonable chance of winning, based on your other statements.

2) You say there are strong crosscurrents and high core undecideds.  The core undecideds are obviously higher than 2004, but how high are they?  20% core undecideds was always the historical maximum during more non-partisan times and I always suspected in 2004 the core undecideds were about 6%.  Obviously, the core undecideds must be less right now, but where are they?

I personally have thought throughout this summer that Obama possesses a stronger core base of support just simply because there are X number of people who won't vote for a third-term Republican after Bush.  I really can't see it being any lower than 43% (and I have trouble with it being this low) and quite frankly I would tend to put it as high as 47%.  Is this really where it should be?

McCain's core support I can picture as being lower, around 43%, maybe even lower than that.  He appears to have solidified some of his soft leaners over the summer to put him up close to Obama's core support, but I don't think he's there yet?  Is this an accurate representation?

3) What can be the impact of third parties in this election where so many people are dissatisfied?  I personally doubt they can have much impact since they have such little funding (and are missing the ballot deadlines in places, which is a real detriment), but how high can they realistically get without serious funding (2% maybe) and who do they impact (I presume Republicans more than Democrats)?

I'll have more later...

[Sam Spade]

Also, where I think the states lie *at this moment in time* with respect to *the polls*.

O+10 or above = Dark Red (Safe O)
O+10 to O+6 = Light Red (Likely O)
O+6 to O+3 = Pink (Lean O)
O+3 to M+3 = Gray (Tossup)
M+3 to M+6 = Light Blue (Lean M)
M+6 to M+10 = Middle Blue (Likely M)
M+10 or above = Dark Blue (Safe M)