MS: Rasmussen: McCain up by 6%

[Sam Spade]

I always thought it would have to be more like 25%, most likely, 20% at least. 33% sounds high.  Like I said before, Musgrove's problem geographically in MS is that most of the whites who care interested in voting Democratic live in Wicker's CD.

[Sam Spade]

I always thought it would have to be more like 25%, most likely, 20% at least. 33% sounds high.  Like I said before, Musgrove's problem geographically in MS is that most of the whites who care interested in voting Democratic live in Wicker's CD.

...or more to the point, the eastern half of it. Where Wicker is from. Musgrove himself is from the CD.

Although there are some such people in Taylor's district as well... and that's just talking at the presidential level.

Well, Musgrove will do better than average in his own black-belt county and probably nowhere else up there.  I don't dispute that a few of those whites live in Taylor's CD, but let's face it, I think we would both agree that the clear majority live in NE MS.

[Sam Spade]

Note the reason why I said *clear majority* and not *huge majority*

The real question, however, relates to how many whites from those areas would not vote for Kerry, but have voted for other Mississippi Dems, for example in 1999.  You might do your analysis based on that race and the 2003 gov race.

[Sam Spade]

Note the reason why I said *clear majority* and not *huge majority*

I did this mostly because I wanted to know, not to score points against you.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh yeah. For another day though. Right now I was mostly interested in where the white straight ticket Dems are at.

Of course.  The difference between the margins in 1999 (Dem +1.1%) and 2003 (GOP +6.8%) is GOP +7.9%.  2004 (GOP +19.7%) is GOP +11.8% to 2003.

I just looked at Tishimongo for example, where the largest gap existed - the "union" county!

1999
Musgrove +14.1%

2003
Barbour +13.9%

28-point swing compared to an 8-point swing statewide...  hmmm..

2004
Bush +30.4%

16.5-point swing compared to 12.  Not as large, but still...

[Sam Spade]

The problem wasn't Greg Davis connecting Obama to Childers (even though it obviously drove up black turnout).  Rather, the problem was Greg Davis not connecting one bit (and his opponent connecting big-time) with the NE MS population Lewis and I were yaking about above that is required in order to win the CD.  Trying to connect Obama to another candidate won't work in any situation if the voters don't want to vote for you in the first place.

Wicker doesn't have that second issue.  Nor will he have the problems (i.e. having it increase black turnout) with the first tactic in a general election.

Nonetheless, this is one area where I agree with MW08 - he's more likely to go after Musgrove's marital issues rather than Obama.  Mainly because I think it's a more effective strategy in a state like MS.

[Sam Spade]

The problem wasn't Greg Davis connecting Obama to Childers (even though it obviously drove up black turnout).  Rather, the problem was Greg Davis not connecting one bit (and his opponent connecting big-time) with the NE MS population Lewis and I were yaking about above that is required in order to win the CD.  Trying to connect Obama to another candidate won't work in any situation if the voters don't want to vote for you in the first place.

Trying to connect Childers to the Obama and Pelosi and making them out as monstrous scarecrows made Davis look even more like a suburban partisan hack conservative. Which of course mightn't have happened if he wasn't a suburban partisan hack conservative.

Of course.  But the point still stands - I really don't see how this logic affects Wicker, because after all, he's not a suburban partisan hack conservative (well, at least not suburban).

[Sam Spade]

Of course.  But the point still stands - I really don't see how this logic affects Wicker, because after all, he's not a suburban partisan hack conservative (well, at least not suburban).

Well, I was responding to someone who introduced the idea of Obama being a factor that could hurt Musgrave in the election.

If he's seen campaigning with Musgrove, yes.  Otherwise, no.  That doesn't, of course, mean Obama shouldn't campaign in MS.

[Sam Spade]

Well, first, Mike Parker was a Democrat before he switched parties (could be some residual support there).  Also, wasn't that CD a heavily black belt CD that included Jackson (or at least parts of it).