Texas State House and Senate Races - 2008

[Sam Spade]

In response to an earlier thread today. 

I'm listing the top 10 House races for either side that I see I right now in order - I may give some explanations later as to what's going on. 

I really doubt that half of the races on either side will be interesting come Election Day, so if one or two of the top Dem seats fall, I doubt the House will be switching sides. 

There may be one or two more seats on either side that are real, real long shots, but some scandal will probably have to happen or something.

As for the Senate, I'm listing each race and telling you what I see.  Only 4 Senate Republicans are contested.  Only 2 Senate Democrats are.  As a rule, it's simply hard to get out incumbent State Senators because of the fact that Texas State Senate districts are larger than Texas CDs, so you need to have a CD-type campaign to compete with incumbency.

One special election will be held in a seat that favors Republicans, but could actually flip, though odds are against.  We need to see who the candidates are first.  Janek was a classic moderate Republican and quite safe.
Senate (open seats marked with * - presently 20-11 GOP)
DEM
1. SD-21 (Zaffirini)
2. SD-6 (Gallegos)

GOP
1. SD-17* (Janek)
2. SD-10 (Brimer)
4. SD-11 (Jackson)
3. SD-16 (Carona)
5. SD-9 (Harris)

Projection
Probably nothing changes.  I could see Dem +2 if the right situation happens in to occur in Janek's SD or a quasi-miracle occurs in the other three (Brimer's is obviously the most competitive right now).  Anything more than that is probably a pipe-dream.

House (open seats marked with * - presently 79-71 GOP)
DEM
1. HD-17*(Cook)
2. HD-97 (Barrett)
3. HD-32 (Garcia)
4. HD-149 (Vo)
5. HD-107 (Vaught)
6. HD-85 (Heflin)
7. HD-11 (Hopson)
8. HD-3 (Bower)
9. HD-47 (Bolton)
10. HD-48 (Howard)
Watch List: HD-93 (Pierson), HD-106 (Englund)

GOP
1. HD-78* (Haggerty)
2. HD-52* (Krusee)
3. HD-101* (Latham)
4. HD-96 (Zedler)
5. HD-102 (Goolsby)
6. HD-133 (Murphy)
7. HD-144* (Talton)
8. HD-129 (Davis)
9. HD-112* (Hill)
10. HD-55* (Delisi)
Watch List: HD-105 (Harper-Brown), HD-108 (Branch)

Projection
Getting there...

[Sam Spade]

Dem side:

I suspected you wouldn't like the inclusion of HD-55.    It's only because I think that a couple of the other DFW seats that I've seen the usual Dem sources play up (e.g. HD-105, HD-108).  Additionally, it's a former Chet Edwards guy running there.

HD-112 (Hill) is up there above the others because this is a classic DFW suburb where Republican margins are declining as minorities move in and the Dem challenger is a good one.  Of course, it's still 60-40 GOP, probably slightly more than that, but an open seat must (in my mind) be treated more seriously than say HD-133 (Murphy), which is slightly less GOP, but there's an incumbent (albeit one-term) or HD-19 (Hamilton) who has held off strong challengers by double-digits time and time again (and I don't believe this one is as strong)

HD-144 (Talton) would be higher up on the list, but the Dem challenger is not top-tier (to put it mildly).

The other five I feel good about.  HD-102 (Goolsby) is obviously higher than HD-96 (Zedler), even though his HD is more GOP, just because he's been such a weak campaigner before.

GOP side:

We basically agree, for the most part.  I feel fairly good about placement for now.

[Sam Spade]

I made one slight change - due to my comments above and noticing that I missed one HD on the Dem side that should at least be mentioned (party-switcher Kirk Englund), I have added a watch-list for seats that I think could be interesting, which includes the two DFW seats mentioned above, HD-106 (Englund) and HD-93 (Pierson), which is a 53-47, 52-48 DFW seat which the incumbent was beaten by Pierson last time and there is a fairly strong Republican running.

[Sam Spade]

I made one slight change - due to my comments above and noticing that I missed one HD on the Dem side that should at least be mentioned (party-switcher Kirk Englund), I have added a watch-list for seats that I think could be interesting, which includes the two DFW seats mentioned above, HD-106 (Englund) and HD-93 (Pierson), which is a 53-47, 52-48 DFW seat which the incumbent was beaten by Pierson last time and there is a fairly strong Republican running.

It's England with an 'a'.   The problem with HD-106 is that England barely won as a Republican.

Corrected.  As for his position, I know.  But party switchers in highly marginal seats should always be put on the watch list unless otherwise stated.

[Sam Spade]

I really don't think there is any chance in HD-19.  The district was carefully drawn, and Hamilton's margin has been going up, and neither Obama or Noriega are going to to push the Democratic turnout.
It's small town rural enough, that people know who their representative is. 

ya, ya, we agree.  I just thought it stood above the options below it, which I regard as real, real long shots.

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I'll give it serious thought.  You're quite right on the apartment vs. single-family thing, especially towards the southern part of that HD, for sure.  But the difference in terms of Republicanness is not that great in my book, about 3-5 points (61-62 vs. 57-58).  That's probably the primary reason for the ranking, considering on seat is open.

[Sam Spade]

Amusingly, Chris Bell is running for the Janek seat, which includes part (a fairly small part - if you examine the SD, it is everything to the east of US-59 in Harris County) of his old House CD before the state Republicans blackified it.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/5887506.html

As mentioned in the article, the deadline for filing is August 29.  Two Republicans (non-office holders) have already filed.

[Sam Spade]

With Vo, the slumlord publicity is big, since it's been in the local news a good bit from what I've heard.  Also, that HD is quite marginal (actually lean GOP functionally).

A few things:

1. Chris Bell is not going to eek out a victory on Election Day in this SD.  He could win a low-turnout runoff, but that's about it.  The Houston Chronicle has always had a thing for Chris Bell and will simply never give "balanced" reporting about him.

2.  HD-129:  The Chronicle is smoking crack here.  This is a 2-1 HD in the Harris County suburbs with an incumbent.  HD-112 is much more reasonable if you think one of these types of HDs is going to go - after all, no incumbent.

3. I never thought of the Talton HD (HD-144) as trending Democratic, but what do I know.  Also, the Dem candidate quality there is a big factor.

4. To put HD-17 at toss-up is being quite generous.  Kleinscmidt came within a point of Cook last time in quite a favorable Dem year.

5. The lack of inclusion of HD-85 or HD-107 on the GOP side shows where that paper's priorities are.

[Sam Spade]

bumping just because I like this topic. 

[Sam Spade]

Most of this one will be just guessing, but I'll try. 

[Sam Spade]

There was an additional Democrat in the race - Stephanie Simmons. Also an additional Republican, Ken Sherman. And while Bell didn't win on the first round (just as Spade predicted), the two Democrats actually outpolled the four Republicans.

I believe Simmons was black and was put in there by St. Sen. Ron Wilson (D) to cause problems...

Just FYI - this State Senate seat is 15% black.  Of course, the folks who probably missed the special election were straight ticket voters, no doubt.  Let's see how this plays in a runoff.  The runoff date is December 16, btw.

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I have no clue.  Maybe so, even though it would be humorous.  The difference, of course, between SD 17 and HD 55 is that SD 17 wouldn't have been up for election this year if the incumbent hadn't vacated.

[Sam Spade]

I believe Simmons was black and was put in there by St. Sen. Ron Wilson (D) to cause problems...


Just FYI - this State Senate seat is 15% black.  Of course, the folks who probably missed the special election were straight ticket voters, no doubt.  Let's see how this plays in a runoff.  The runoff date is December 16, btw.

I hadn't touched on an important issue in my previous post because I assumed too much (lazily)

Basically, Chris Bell is not liked in the black community in Houston one bit because of certain past races (mayoral/Congress).

I am curious to see how blacks react to this - I suspect they don't show, actually.

[Sam Spade]

One thing you omitted to mention though is the exact boundaries of the district. When I spoke of the "eastern appendage" in the original post, I did mean Galveston as well as Port Arthur. Note that no one's living in between Port Arthur and High Island (except for the very small settlement of Sabine Pass, if that's the name - quoted from memory), so the district is "really" three separate parts (although I need to look up where the population in the Brazoria portion is thickest - I know where the population in Brazoria as a whole is thickest - namely, in the SD 11 portion, but obviously there's a lot of population in SD17 as well).

Sabine Pass is actually south of Port Arthur, along the Texas-Louisiana border.  But I guess that does qualify.

However yes, there literally is nothing between Port Arthur and High Island.  The one road in that area (St. Highway 87) has been closed for ages and is probably largely washed away by the Gulf now.  Or at least it was when I drove through there about 10 years ago.  Rita and Ike probably fully did it away.  There were nudist colonies out there at one time, as I recall.

[Sam Spade]

192 of 211 Precincts

22,552 (57.18%) Huffman
16,888 (42.81%) Bell

Most everything left is from Harris or Fort Bend.  This one's over.

Chris Bell lost another one, surprise, surprise...

[Sam Spade]

I imagine that this district is quite Republican.  It seems to be pretty much a smaller version of TX-14 or TX-22.  Am I correct here?

Not as Republican as you might think, mainly because the black population is a bit higher (15% vs. 8-9%).  That's because of the Jefferson county add-on, which is mainly black.

Bush won it probably around 60-40 or 61-39.  Obama was undoubtedly closer.  Moody got 47% in 2006, but he probably performed better among whitey than Obama did.

[Sam Spade]

Final Total:

211 of 211 Precincts

24,431 (56.11%) Huffman
19,104 (43.88%) Bell

[Sam Spade]

Look at the MN Sen Recount results and then at Forum Community for a locked thread I posted (that's now a few pages back).