Assume a High Voter Turnout in November

[Sam Spade]

Numbers-wise, the historical model says that turnout in-between 48%-50% of VAP helps Republicans, because the intermittent voters who typically make up the 50%-53% of VAP turnout tend to break strongly for Democrats. 

I'm starting to conclude that once you get above 53%, that the next cadre of intermittent voters, probably between 53% and 56% (which are more intermittent than the voters above) tend to break strongly for Republicans (and tend to be overwhelmingly in the Southern parts of the US).  These voters only showed up in 1992 for Perot (note how well Republican candidates did down-ballot in that election, even while losing the Presidency) and in 2004 for Bush. 

The next cadre of voters above that have simply never shown up in any election, so we don't know about them.  I really can't speak to whether the theories here are based on that occurring.

If Democrat turnout is roughly around 53% or so, that should be the best for their chances.  Just FYI.  Those Republican voters going up to the 50% may not look like they're going to show up, but as happened in 1996, they did anyway.

I should bump a Vorlon post on the matter, actually.