Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

October 16, 2008

RV
Obama 49 (-1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 51 (-1)
McCain 45 (+1)

LV (traditional)
Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (+1)

[Sam Spade]

Drudge is quite predictable sometimes.

[Sam Spade]

Palin changed Drudge's mood on the race, he decided to do everything he could to boost the GOP ticket after she was picked..

Must be in love.

[Sam Spade]

Nate Silver's attack today on Drudge's poll placement is amusing...

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/16/today-s-polls-just-say-no-to-drudge.aspx

[Sam Spade]

I wonder if anyone would care to explain this oddity within Gallup today...

Registered Voters - 2,774 interviews
Likely Voters (Expanded) - 2,271 interviews
Likely Voters (Traditional) - 2,340 interviews

You know what this makes Sam Spade think...

[Sam Spade]

10/22/08

RV

Obama 51 (-1)
McCain 42 (+1)

LV expanded

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 44 (+2)

LV traditional

Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 45 (+1)

[Sam Spade]

Gallup doing its usual midweek movement.

10/23/08

RV

Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 43 (+1)

LV expanded

Obama 51 (-1)
McCain 45 (+1)

LV traditional

Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 46 (+1)

[Sam Spade]

lame

To beat out Hawk, this is an article from Gallup that I find most fascinating.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-First-Time-Voters.aspx

(conducted October 17-19 2008 among 2700 RV)

[Sam Spade]

I've been disappointed with Gallup this election season. Way to much movement in the polls to be believable. I think Rasmussen is the one to go with this year - they've had the race pretty stable at 4-8 points for Obama for about a month now and that seems about right.

Gallup's movement is part of its methodology.  You have to live with it...

[Sam Spade]

And Drudge finally grabs the number.  Took them long enough!

Well, what did you expect?

[Sam Spade]

Why is the Gallup LV Traditional now only showing 65.2% of RV showing up.  That's below 1996 levels.

[Sam Spade]

Why is the Gallup LV Traditional now only showing 65.2% of RV showing up.  That's below 1996 levels.

Despite this early voting hubbub, traditional indicators seem laggy to me.  Oregon ballot returns (a limited indicator but the best I know of) are down nearly 20% vs. the same day 2004.  Unless something odd is happening, I would be surprised if RVT isn't down a tick from '04.

True, but as I noted before, this number was *higher* than the expanded number only one week ago.

The expanded model now has it at 87%.  In the 2004 elections, it was 73%.

[Sam Spade]

Why is the Gallup LV Traditional now only showing 65.2% of RV showing up.  That's below 1996 levels.

Despite this early voting hubbub, traditional indicators seem laggy to me.  Oregon ballot returns (a limited indicator but the best I know of) are down nearly 20% vs. the same day 2004.  Unless something odd is happening, I would be surprised if RVT isn't down a tick from '04.

That suggests demoralization. So is it downmarket blue collars who voted for Kerry who won't be voting, or cross conflicted Torie voters who voted Bush who won't be voting, or base GOP Bush voters who won't be voting, or Hispanics who voted more for Kerry than Bush who won't be voting?

I'm not sure, honestly.  Outside factors can affect this as well, but I've looked at the Oregon ballot carefully, and I see no explanations.  Maybe stamp costs?  Who knows.

Getting into the more experimental zone:  FiveThirtyEight did an analysis of the Oregon ballot returns and found that, extrapolating ballot returns in a 100% Kerry county and a 100% Bush county, the theoretical Kerry county would see turnout essentially unchanged from 2004.  The theoretical pure Bush-voter county would be off by about 40%.  That type of analysis is prone to noise and outside effects, but that's a significant difference, period.

When it comes to early voting numbers, I'm always skeptical.  Oftentimes they show enthusiasm while ignoring reliable, traditional voters.  But when you have an entire state that's vote-by-mail, and ballots come directly to houses, the amount of enthusiasm in the equation has got to be significantly lower.  Even if these are just voters who are dragging their feet, feet-dragging is going to lose some voters at the margins, and there's just no way that's good news for McCain--or a healthy participative democracy.

(Wish I had more to add about your sub-demographics, other than saying that the Oregon numbers likely show reduced participation among downscale conservatives, but not so much downscale traditional Democrats.  I'm basing that almost entirely on a small handful of counties, though.)

I understand your point, Alcon (for Oregon), but it doesn't explain the massive shift within the poll itself over the last week.

[Sam Spade]

Let me see if I can help with this note:

October 30 Graph



October 29 Graph



October 28 Graph


See my point.

I might e-mail Gallup and see if the graph's just a misprint.

[Sam Spade]

Friday, November 7, 2008
Favorable 66%(+5)
Unfavorable 29%(-4)

He hasn't even moved into the white yet.

Remember what Gallup is particularly susceptible to...