Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
Posts: 27,547
|
 |
« on: March 25, 2008, 09:18:59 PM » |
|
If the Dem loses Florida and Ohio, the chances of the Dem winning fall well below 50%.
It is, of course, lower with Obama than with Hillary, mainly b/c Hillary has slightly more options at picking up marginal Bush states when I look at the map. In addition, both have certain marginal Kerry states that could fall, but I consider Obama's to be much more devastating (see PA).
I'll say 15% for Obama. 25% for Hillary. Or so.
|
