After all this recent Obama hubub...

[Sam Spade]

Well, I've been saying no after his March 5 performance.  

But meekermariner is correct, it's all about a risk-reward strategy - Obama gives the chance of a larger victory, but also the chance of a larger loss (or a loss in general).  After March 5, I believe that the risk now outweighs the reward.  And after the Wright thingy, the chance of a larger victory may be gone too (too early to tell).