Primary Results for Ohio-18?

[Sam Spade]

The Hill says that Lyle Larson has defeated Quico Canseco for the GOP nomination in TX-23. Canseco has argued that a non-Hispanic Republican (read: Larson) will struggle to carry this Hispanic-heavy district which straddles the border with Mexico. Because of this primary news, I plan to downgrade the competitiveness of this race.

I agree, if Clinton's the nominee.

If we've got Obama, you should move that one up as fast as IL-10.

[Sam Spade]

I agree, if Clinton's the nominee.

If we've got Obama, you should move that one up as fast as IL-10.

On what basis?

I suspect that given the high profile of border and immigration issues these days, Hispanic voters aren't going to sit an election out because Obama is the nominee. Besides, I thought the argument was that a Clinton candidacy would bring out conservative Republicans who would other give the election a pass.

Look, I don't mean to be blunt, but I know the border counties and urban barrio areas in Texas, and you don't.    Northwest SA is going to show up regardless of who the Dem is.

[Sam Spade]

Look, I don't mean to be blunt, but I know the border counties and urban barrio areas in Texas, and you don't.    Northwest SA is going to show up regardless of who the Dem is.

Fair enough.

However, it looks like Northwest SA didn't show up in the runoff in 2006.

That is correct.  Even with that "not showing up", Ciro only got 54%.  Granted, Bonilla always had the Hispanic factor to help him a bit.

[Sam Spade]

On what basis?

(puts on Democratic "I see racism everywhere" hat)

Because blacks and Hispanics traditionally don't like each other.

(takes off Democratic "I see racism everywhere" hat)

Here, it's not really about racism, it's about turnout (though they are somewhat connected).  If there's 2004-like turnout in TX-23, Ciro won't survive.