Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[Sam Spade]

Another thing - if I had to guess at this moment, I wouldn't be surprised if my Hillary +3 prediction in Texas nails it...  Unless the missing areas are blacks or upper-income whites.  Hillary's been gaining a good bit in the same-day voting numbers almost everywhere.

[Sam Spade]

Hamilton County now in - Hillary's margin down to twelve.  Depending on what's out in Cuyahoga, Obama could pull it down into single digits, maybe.

[Sam Spade]

Another thing - if I had to guess at this moment, I wouldn't be surprised if my Hillary +3 prediction in Texas nails it...  Unless the missing areas are blacks or upper-income whites.  Hillary's been gaining a good bit in the same-day voting numbers almost everywhere.

So ARG is right too?

As I said before, a broken clock is right twice a day.  My prediction also jives with Zogby.  I made it before both of them

I said the end of the world was at hand - you didn't believe me.  Now comes 1000 years of darkness for Minneapolis.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting election note: Democratic *primary election* turnout in Webb County was only 558 votes short of 2004 *general election* turnout.

Hillary pulled a Henry Cuellar.

[Sam Spade]

What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

What's with Obama only leading by 2% Cuyahoga?

Getting ridiculously high turnout from Webb County in a low-turnout election.  See, e.g. 2002 midterms, 2004 and 2006 Dem primaries.

I thought you were a Kossack and would remember this. 

[Sam Spade]

What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.

This is sig material.

[Sam Spade]

What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.

This is sig material.

Cuellar was the only Democrat in a contested primary who won the Club for Growth's endorsement...

Look, the Kossacks never understood that area.  Looks like the Obamamites still don't understand it.

[Sam Spade]

I've looked at the CD's and the heaviest is 50% African American (but it keeps electing Bob Brady).  Most of even the 5  districts are heavily Caucasian.  PA is not Obama territory.

I think you're missing Chaka Fattah's CD.  Aren't most of the whites in Brady's CD ethnics?  And isn't there a decent Puerto Rican population in Brady's CD too?

[Sam Spade]

Another note for tonight - The exit polls really sucked in Ohio and RI - way off.  Theories?  Well, RI was expected, but...

[Sam Spade]

It is really too bad that the Texas result is going to be more like 4%-5%.  I was really hoping to get it exactly right. 

[Sam Spade]

Very, very interesting results, yes.

In Ohio the main areas to look out for should, stress "should", be the more urban of the various traditional industrial areas (this is not the same thing as areas with the highest percentage of manufacturing jobs. Just thought I'd point that out). Not so much for who wins, but by how much. The rural areas don't matter, Columbus doesn't matter (much), the Southeast of the state (especially) doesn't matter. What matters is the margins (in raw votes as much as percentages) in the sort of areas mentioned above.

Always nice to get something right (more or less) even if it was a little obvious

I should bump you up, if I can find it 30 pages ago, to the initial exit poll releases, which were once again way off, except in Clinton's direction.

Two in particular - Ohio was Clinton +3, will end up being Clinton +10
Rhode Island (LOFL) was Clinton +4, will end up being Clinton +18 (or +19)!

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI, the Texas SOS site says Clinton 65-61 with 14 precincts left for the primary.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting exit poll number for Ohio:

Was race of candidate important to you?
Yes (20%) - Hillary 59%, Obama 39%
No (79%) - Hillary 53%, Obama 45%

Considering the way people lie on this question...

[Sam Spade]

Just for sh!ts and giggles:

Was race of candidate important to you?

Texas
Yes (19%) - Hillary 52%, Obama 47%
No (80% - Hillary 51%, Obama 48%

Rhode Island
Yes (18%) - Hillary 65%, Obama 35%
No (81%) - Hillary 58%, Obama 42% (liars)

Vermont
Yes (13%) - Hillary 42%, Obama 58% (hippys)
No (87%) - Hillary 38%, Obama 60%

Was gender of candidate important to you?
Texas
Yes (23%) - Hillary 60%, Obama 40%
No (75%) - Hillary 48%, Obama 50%

Ohio
Yes (17%) - Hillary 60%, Obama 40%
No (83%) - Hillary 53%, Obama 45%

Rhode Island
Yes (21%) - Hillary 75%, Obama 25%
No (78%) - Hillary 55%, Obama 44%

Vermont
Yes (17%) - Hillary 67%, Obama 33%
No (82%) - Hillary 32%, Obama 66%

Conclusion:  Among Democrats, racists outnumber misogynists, unless you think of pro-women voters as misogynist (not unreasonable)

[Sam Spade]

Anecdotal report:  My parents, both Obama supporters for now (my father switches back and forth) report from a 70-75% Hispanic precinct in the middle of Houston's East End (a little bit more upperclass than most).  150-25 Clinton.  Obama barely reaches viability.  Maybe through their showing up.

This afternoon, my father drove his car up the driveway to their home.  Someone had smashed a watermelon all over the concrete on the driveway.  It wasn't a seedless watermelon.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN PEOPLE?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
I NEED SOME ANSWERS!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!