More on a Hillary Comback [Michael Barone does the delegate math]

[Sam Spade]

A couple of points, and a question:

1 - I suspect Kentucky will be much uglier for Obama than a 15% loss - outside of the black areas, I can see a map that looks a lot like western Virginia or Tennessee.  Bill was particulary liked in this state.  Same goes with WV, though you didn't mention it.  I am still doing the math on Indiana, fwiw, but I remember the state is still back in the 1950s.

2 - Obama won't get 60% in NC, at least not if it's contested.  Not in the NC I remember.  Sure, it's got the same black population as Virginia, but the white population is quite different.

What is the breakdown on the PA CDs, or the OH CDs for that matter?

[Sam Spade]

Here are the Penn CD's. I didn't do Ohio, I just used Barone's numbers.

1   5   2
2   7   2
3   2   3
4   2   3
5   2   2
6   4   2
7   3   4
8   3   4
9   1   2
10   2   2
11   2   3
12   2   3
13   4   3
14   3   4
15   3   2
16   2   2
17   2   2
18   2   3
19   2   2
   23   32
      
   76   82

Thanks.  What does it take to get an extra delegate in the 3, 4, 5, 6, 7-delegate CDs (heck even Fattah's 9-delegate CD)?

[Sam Spade]

I doubt that 5-2 will be happening in KY-03, even though I don't know the proportional splits.

I expect Kentucky, numbers-wise, to be a lot like Oklahoma, except without the Edwards protest vote.  That doesn't mean the voting patterns will be the same, however.

[Sam Spade]

I doubt that 5-2 will be happening in KY-03, even though I don't know the proportional splits.

I expect Kentucky, numbers-wise, to be a lot like Oklahoma, except without the Edwards protest vote.  That doesn't mean the voting patterns will be the same, however.

You don't think the vote in CD-3 will be two thirds black?

Well, CD-03 is about 19% black.  Kentucky is a closed primary, so how much of the "affluent" Louisville suburbs are Republican.  And essentially, how much of the rest of the CD is registered Democrat, considering that statewide registration numbers are about 57% Democrat.

[Sam Spade]

Looking at the numbers, am I correct that it would take 62.5% in a 4-delegate CD to get to 3-1.  And that it takes 58.5% in a 5-delegate CD to get to 3-2.  How much does it take to get to 4-1 in a five-delegate CD.

Because, if so, KY-02 and KY-05 will be 3-1 Hillary, I suspect.

I'll guess 4-3 Obama in KY-03, frankly, though the White Dem vote will be key.

[Sam Spade]

How much does it take to get to 4-1 in a five-delegate CD.

70%

Quite possible, then.

[Sam Spade]

Here are the Penn CD's. I didn't do Ohio, I just used Barone's numbers.

1   5   2  (how many Republicans are here?  The Black % is only 45%, there's a fairly strong Hispanic population and the ethnic whites historically have problems voting for blacks)
2   7   2  (sounds about right)
3   2   3  (70% is quite possible, b/c Obama will get massacred out here)
4   2   3  (see CD-03)
5   2   2  (all depends on Penn State turnout
6   4   2  (probably - but which voters out here are Democrats)
7   3   4  (see CD-06)
8   3   4  (see CD-06)
9   1   2  (agreed)
10   2   2  (probably 3-1, I can see Clinton reaching 62.5% easy here)
11   2   3  (see CD-03)
12   2   3  (see CD-03)
13   4   3  (what does Phil think? - I might be tempted to turn the numbers around)
14   3   4  (black pop. is 22% - is that enough to overcome the whites here, who are probably all registered Dems)
15   3   2  (isn't the Dem population here mainly industrial - I would want to rethink this one personally)
16   2   2  (probably)
17   2   2  (see CD-15)
18   2   3  (see CD-03)
19   2   2  (who are the Democrats out here?)
   23   32
      
   76   82

[Sam Spade]

Ok, I have been educated and persuaded. 3 more delegates to Clinton in Kentucky, 31-20 versus 28-23.  You can see just how thick the water here is to swim through to make any progress in changing the totals much.

Not disagreeing, at all..    The numbers are tough, though not impossible at all.  I am curious about Ohio.

However, Hillary does have a few "aces in the hole", delegate-wise.  But they really only come into play, I suspect, if she wins Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  She'll probably even play them if they she to lose one of those states, but I question the effectiveness then.

[Sam Spade]

I just did a perfunctory view of the Ohio CDs without really crunching numbers.  Ohio is probably the one place where the delegate math doesn't favor Obama (to put it mildly) - so Barone's numbers might be actually close to correct.  Obama will win the 8-delegate CD.  (Tubbs-Jones)

The 7-delegate CD is Traficant's old CD encompassing Youngstown.  Only 11% black and lots of blue collar whites.

The 6-delegates CDs are CD-09 (Toledo), CD-10 (Kucinich's seat with no blacks and ethnic whites - ugh), CD-13 (more of Cleveland, along with a good bit of Akron), CD-14 (NE Ohio - more favorable b/c it includes the upper-income Cleveland suburbs).

The 5-delegate CDs are CD-03 (Dayton), CD-06 (rural SE Ohio), CD-12 (Columbus - includes the black part - 22% black), CD-16 (Canton), CD-18 (the rural, formerly Bob Ney CD).

The 4-delegate CDs are everything else - most of Republican western Ohio (CD-02, CD-04, CD-05, CD-08), The Cincinnati CD-01, with a high black population, CD-07 (Springfield), and CD-15 (the Pryce Columbus CD)

[Sam Spade]

I don't think Hillary should get too excited about Indiana either, the state is almost the same as Missouri demographically except whites are more Republican, meaning blacks take up a higher percentage of the Democratic electorate. Obama probably can't win it, but Hillary's edge in delegates won't be higher than single digits.

Uh...  I agree about the Texas stuff, but this makes no sense.

Indiana's whites are more Republican - that's news to me, bucko.  Truthfully, Indiana is a lot more like Ohio than Missouri.  There's always been a strong industrial/manufacturing base - Missouri has little of that.  True, the suburbs around Indianapolis are quite Republican - but the rest of the state - no.

Another important number:  Missouri - 11.2% black, Indiana 8.3% black.

[Sam Spade]

I don't think Hillary should get too excited about Indiana either, the state is almost the same as Missouri demographically except whites are more Republican, meaning blacks take up a higher percentage of the Democratic electorate. Obama probably can't win it, but Hillary's edge in delegates won't be higher than single digits.

Uh...  I agree about the Texas stuff, but this makes no sense.

Indiana's whites are more Republican - that's news to me, bucko.  Truthfully, Indiana is a lot more like Ohio than Missouri.  There's always been a strong industrial/manufacturing base - Missouri has little of that.  True, the suburbs around Indianapolis are quite Republican - but the rest of the state - no.
Another important number:  Missouri - 11.2% black, Indiana 8.3% black.

Then again, it balences out with more whites being goppers. Therefore, there will be fewer white as well, meaning blacks will probably represent at the same levels....and I don't know how there can be anything more GOPPER than rural Indiana.

Uh...  The St. Louis suburbs are not that greatly different from the Indianapolis suburbs in terms of voting habits - and actually in terms of overall votes, the Indianapolis suburbs are simply less overall votes.

If you think rural Indiana is GOP heartland, I'd advise you to start rethinking.

[Sam Spade]

Well obviously Indiana is a far more Republican state than Missouri, just look at the 2004 numbers. So whites must be more Republican.

Analyzing a place's voting habits through the Presidential vote is at its most fool-hardy in a state like Indiana, BRTD. 

For example, look at IN-08, IN-09 (60-40 Presidential, swing district locally, always has been, actually IN-09 is historically Democratic).  Or IN-03, a historically Republican CD that moves Democratic during bad times.  Or IN-02, historically Democratic lower-income industrial district that normally votes Republican presidentially...  I can continue.

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Blacks are 18% of the population.  Hispanics are 10%.  There are some Chicago suburbs, but historically and presently this is a steel-producing white working-class *Democratic* area (and still is).  In other words, the lower-income whites (and whites in general) will be voting in the Democratic primary.  Breaking even is about the best Obama can do, and I wouldn't be surprised if he lost here (58.5% might be tough)

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Black population is 8% here.  Notre Dame is located there too.  Obama will get killed elsewhere here (to put it mildly).  Probably not enough to reach 70% however.

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Can Hillary reach 62.5% here?  In this CD, I'd give her a pretty good shot.

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It'll probably end up 2-2, but for different reasons.

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Same.

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I always thought of Muncie as being an industrial town, but what do I know.  I don't think Hillary can reach 70%, however.

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29% black.  Considering the racial problems here and the Republicanness of the Indianapolis suburbs, I agree.

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Can Hillary reach 70%?

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See IN-8.

I'm counting +3 minimum, but Hillary has the better chance of pushing that number up.

[Sam Spade]

How could Indiana and Ohio be more for Hilldawg than Tennessee

Both Indiana and Ohio have less blacks, in the case of Indiana it's about half.  Both states contain bad combinations of rural white Democrats and industrial white Democrats.

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Well, first off - there are virtually no blacks in AZ and NM, whereas Texas has a decent amount in the Houston/Dallas/Austin area (and they exist in San Antonio too - but there are very few).

Moreover, there really is no comparison to the border area of Texas in any other part of the states we've seen.  Most of the Hispanics in these areas have congregated around the various border crossing towns of the Rio Grande and are often interrelated within their Mexican counterparts towns on the other side.  Maybe Las Cruces has a little bit of this feel, but it's very small.  It causes a different type of population than the older-line Hispanics you see in NM, or the strong border Hispanic types in Arizona.