list of GOP retirements?

[Sam Spade]

If I was a really insane man with a sick betting side, I'd be tempted to make the wager that by the time election day rolls around in 2008, NM-01 will be below NM-02 on your list. 

As it is right now, NM-02 should be up a level and WY-AL and OH-07 should be off the list (OH-07 mainly b/c the GOP will have an excellent candidate there).

[Sam Spade]

Candidates may have something to do with it, but the inner dynamics of NM-01 and NM-02 are very different than the Nevada districts. 

Also, in 2006, don't underestimate the helpful impact of Hafen being a Mormon in a highly Mormon area (comparison to US).  Harry Reid wouldn't still be a Senator without that factoid.

IMHO, NV-03 is highly likely to be under both New Mexico districts in terms of competitiveness come 2008.

[Sam Spade]

Also keep in mind that the Clinton campaign is likely going to register and turn out thousands of new Hispanic voters who likely to vote straight ticket Democrat.  All of this only helps Heimrich. 

I am generally quite suspicious of any plan for victory that includes (in part or in whole) registering new voters.  If you need to chase them down and beat them over the head to register, they're not going to be turning up at the polling places to vote.

Yes, but in a state like New Mexico they could end up voting anyway, even if they don't show up at the polling places. 

Which makes it even more unlikely that that scenario would occur, btw.