TX-Senate-Research2000: Cornyn (R) leads Noriega (D) by 16

[Sam Spade]

Yeah, noticed that as well. I'd also note that on these figures, Cornyn doesn't seem quite impossible to beat. (though it'd take a strong candidate, and still be an uphill struggle). Which is more than I hoped for.

That's the reason why Cornyn's in Likely R and not in Safe R - I do have reasons for what I do (plus I know my home state) . 

Although you might be overplaying the chance by a decent bit, IMHO.  But still, it's very hard for Cornyn to get above 55%, but it's going to be very hard to get him under 50%.

[Sam Spade]

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

Cornyn (R) - 51%
Noriega (D) - 35%

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect John Cornyn, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Cornyn?

Reelect - 40%
Consider - 15%
Replace - 35%

Ouch for Noriega.

So he's getting the baseline of a support.  One way to interpret this would be to say that 100% of anti-Cornyn people are voting for Noreiga.  While that's specious (some people who say "Replace" may prefer Cornyn over Noreiga and some "Reelect" folks may like Noriega), it does shows that Noreiga has room to grow. I wish the TX Democrats could run a charismatic Hispanic (Noreiga) with vast financial resources (Watts).

Yes, baseline Dem support for any prosective Dem nominee in Texas is 35% against generic R, but if Noriega (or anyone else) were to win the Dem nomination, his support will at minimum move up to around 40%, maybe 2%-3% more b/c of the Hispanic surname.  I still think the race will end up somewhere around the Gramm-Morales number of 1996, probably slightly closer (2%-3%) or slightly less close (2%-3%), depending on how well Noriega campaigns

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Uh, the ties to GWB didn't kill Sanchez in Texas, especially not in 2002.  What didn't help Sanchez was the fact that he was an idiot with $700 million in cash who didn't know how to spend or advertise properly.  I certainly didn't vote for him that year.

[Sam Spade]

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

Cornyn (R) - 51%
Noriega (D) - 35%

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect John Cornyn, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Cornyn?

Reelect - 40%
Consider - 15%
Replace - 35%

Ouch for Noriega.

So he's getting the baseline of a support.  One way to interpret this would be to say that 100% of anti-Cornyn people are voting for Noreiga.  While that's specious (some people who say "Replace" may prefer Cornyn over Noreiga and some "Reelect" folks may like Noriega), it does shows that Noreiga has room to grow. I wish the TX Democrats could run a charismatic Hispanic (Noreiga) with vast financial resources (Watts).

Yes, baseline Dem support for any prosective Dem nominee in Texas is 35% against generic R, but if Noriega (or anyone else) were to win the Dem nomination, his support will at minimum move up to around 40%, maybe 2%-3% more b/c of the Hispanic surname.  I still think the race will end up somewhere around the Gramm-Morales number of 1996, probably slightly closer (2%-3%) or slightly less close (2%-3%), depending on how well Noriega campaigns

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Uh, the ties to GWB didn't kill Sanchez in Texas, especially not in 2002.  What didn't help Sanchez was the fact that he was an idiot with $700 million in cash who didn't know how to spend or advertise properly.  I certainly didn't vote for him that year.

I remember reading that his ties to Shrub helped depress base turnout (read: urban blacks). Sanchez ran a dismal campaign that was fatally wounded by his many business related scandals.

I didn't look at the race precinct-by-precinct, but with Ron Kirk on the ballot, I would be kind of surprised if the urban black vote was that depressed.  Besides, Sanchez probably made up for it by pulling Presidential turnout in an off-year election in the border counties (which almost got Cuellar by Bonilla).

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Well, Texas is not the quintessential Southern state because of the suburban growth, but that's neither here nor there.

Jim Sasser beat Bill Brock in Tennessee in 1976.  That's the only one I can think of.

[Sam Spade]

Sounds about right. Cornyn will lose only inner city Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley.

Cornyn comes from San Antonio and in 2002 he carried Bexar County 51%-47%. 

Given that he barely won the county, he'll probably lose the inner city. He's  a Republican, after all.

The inner city has never been Republican-friendly to put it mildly.  His bump in Bexar County was probably about 3%-4% in 2002 (best guess).

Also, a Democratic candidate would also win El Paso, the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, inner-city Austin (obviously) and if he's particularly strong, some parts of east Texas.  Democrats would do ok in the inner suburbs of Dallas and Houston (and probably Austin as well).