Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Sam Spade]

FINAL PREDICTIONS

SENATE 2008 (56 Democrats, 42 Republicans, 2 Independents)
WINNER IN RED

Alabama: Figures (D) 35, Sessions (R) 65 GOP HOLD
Alaska: Begich (D) 50, Stevens (R) 45, Others 5 DEM PICKUP
Arkansas: Pryor (D) 92, Others 8 DEM HOLD
Colorado* Udall (D) 53, Schaffer 45, Others 2 DEM PICKUP
Delaware: Biden (D) 65, O'Connell (R) 35 DEM HOLD
Georgia: Martin (D) 46, Chambliss (R) 49, Others 5 SENT TO RUNOFF (GOP HOLD)
Idaho* LaRocco (D) 39, Risch (R) 58, Others 3 GOP HOLD (humor prediction)
Illinois: Durbin (D) 63, Sauerberg (R) 35, Others 2 DEM HOLD
Iowa: Harkin (D) 59, Reed (R) 41 DEM HOLD
Kansas: Slattery (D) 38, Roberts (R) 59, Others 3 GOP HOLD
Kentucky: Lunsford (D) 47, McConnell 53 GOP HOLD
Louisiana:Landrieu (D) 53, Kennedy 46, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Maine: Allen (D) 43, Collins (R) 57 GOP HOLD
Massachusetts: Kerry (D) 61, Beatty (R) 36, Others 3 DEM HOLD
Michigan: Levin (D) 60, Hoogendyk (R) 38, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Minnesota: Franken (D) 40, Coleman (R) 43, Barkley (I) 16, Others 1 GOP HOLD
Mississippi - A: Fleming (D) 37, Cochran (R) 63 GOP HOLD
Mississippi - B: Musgrove (D) 46, Wicker (R) 54 GOP HOLD
Montana: Baucus (D) 65, Kelleher (R) 33, Others 2 DEM HOLD
Nebraska* Kleeb (D) 36, Johanns (R) 61, Others 3 GOP HOLD
New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) 52, Sununu (R) 47, Others 1 DEM PICKUP
New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) 55, Zimmer (R) 43, Others 2 DEM HOLD
New Mexico* Udall (D) 56, Pearce (R) 43, Others 1 DEM PICKUP
North Carolina: Hagan (D) 51, Dole (R) 47, Others 2 DEM PICKUP
Oklahoma: Rice 39 (D), Inhofe (R) 58, Others 3 GOP HOLD
Oregon: Merkley (D) 50, Smith (R) 45, Others 5 DEM PICKUP
Rhode Island: Reed (D) 78, Tingle (R) 22 DEM HOLD
South Carolina: Conley (D) 43, Graham (R) 57 GOP HOLD
South Dakota: Johnson (D) 59, Dykstra (R) 40, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Tennessee: Tuke (D) 37, Alexander (R) 61, Others 2 GOP HOLD
Texas: Noriega (D) 43, Cornyn (R) 55, Others 2 GOP HOLD
Virginia* Warner (D) 59, Gilmore (R) 38, Other 3 DEM PICKUP
West Virginia: Rockefeller (D) 64, Wolfe (R) 36 DEM HOLD
Wyoming - A: Rothfuss (D) 31, Enzi (R) 69 GOP HOLD
Wyoming - B: Carter (D) 34, Barrasso (R) 66 GOP HOLD

HOUSE 2008 261 Democrats, 174 Republicans (29 Dem Pickups, 4 GOP Pickups)

Likely DEM PICKUP
AK-AL
AZ-01*
CA-04*
CO-04
CT-04
FL-08
FL-24
FL-25
ID-01
IL-10
IL-11*
IN-03
MI-07
MI-09
MN-06
NC-08
NE-02
NJ-03*
NM-01*
NM-02*
NV-03
NY-13*
NY-25*
NY-29
OH-15*
OH-16*
PA-03
VA-05
VA-11*

GOP PICKUP
FL-16
KS-02
PA-11
TX-22

DEM HOLDS (up to 20 seats)
AL-05*
AZ-05
AZ-08
GA-08
IN-09
KS-03
KY-03
LA-06
MS-01
NH-01
NY-20
PA-04
PA-10
PA-12
TX-23
WI-08

GOP HOLDS (up to 60 races)
AZ-03*
CA-03
CA-46
CA-50
FL-13
FL-21
IA-04
IL-06
IL-18*
KY-02*
LA-04* (runoff)
MD-01*
MN-03*
MO-06
MO-09*
NJ-05
NJ-07*
NV-02
NY-26
OH-01
OH-02
PA-06
PA-15
SC-01
TX-07
TX-10
VA-02
VA-10
WA-08
WV-02
WY-AL

[Sam Spade]

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

[Sam Spade]

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

Good to see that you had the guts to call VA for Mark Warner. I'm sure you really struggled with that pick.

I did finish Kentucky, Mississippi and Maine, and I could probably fill in Oregon if I wanted to.  The rest are difficult.

[Sam Spade]

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

Good to see that you had the guts to call VA for Mark Warner. I'm sure you really struggled with that pick.

I did finish Kentucky, Mississippi and Maine, and I could probably fill in Oregon if I wanted to.  The rest are difficult.

Feel free to fill in Oregon. Merkley has closed with positive ads, while Smith is running only negative ads that play on the state's regional divide. The polling uniformly shows Smith  below 45% and Brownlow is hurting him with his base.

CO is also an easy call now.

I can see why you're still debating AK, NH, NC, MN, GA.

The problem in Colorado is not the call.  It's the margin.

[Sam Spade]

Senate done.  House will be finished this evening...

[Sam Spade]

Senate done.  House will be finished this evening...

You should update your topic post with your finished rankings for convenience.  Gosh I had to do a few extra clicks to find it!

When I do the HOuse, I'll do that.

[Sam Spade]

Senate done.  House will be finished this evening...

NC is a tossup? 

See the previous page.

[Sam Spade]

Well if I counted right, Sam has a 22 seat pick up in the House based on intensive research and thought, and I have a 22 seat pickup based on looking at Rothenberg's list, and saying agree or disagree, and checking some polls and my knowledge of lack thereof of a district, and then my gut, and then pulling a number out of my ass.  Some of the individual seats vary, like CA-4 and so forth, but whatever. Two of the three Cuban districts in Florida are going down?  I though just one was in play?

Both are in play, and I'm not finished yet. 

[Sam Spade]

Well if I counted right, Sam has a 22 seat pick up in the House based on intensive research and thought, and I have a 22 seat pickup based on looking at Rothenberg's list, and saying agree or disagree, and checking some polls and my knowledge of lack thereof of a district, and then my gut, and then pulling a number out of my ass.  Some of the individual seats vary, like CA-4 and so forth, but whatever. Two of the three Cuban districts in Florida are going down?  I though just one was in play?

Sam has both Cuban seats staying Republican (FL-21 and FL-25).  The two Florida seats he has going Dem are those of Ric Keller and Tom Feeney.

He has them both going down the toilet, actually.

Likely DEM PICKUP
AK-AL
AZ-01*
CA-04*
CO-04
CT-04
FL-08
FL-21
FL-24
FL-25

I may change my mind here too.

[Sam Spade]

bump (finalized)

[Sam Spade]

bump, I'm going to try and get done the Senate/House review today...

[Sam Spade]

HOUSE 2008
PREDICTION: 261 Democrats, 174 Republicans (29 Dem Pickups, 4 GOP Pickups)
ACTUAL: 257 Democrats, 178 Republicans,  (26 Dem Pickups, 5 GOP Pickups)

Likely DEM PICKUP
AK-AL (wrong) - Ah Alaska...
AZ-01* - Not close
CA-04* (wrong) - McClintock's campaign was bad.  But not this bad.
CO-04 - Not close.
CT-04 - Shays' loss is actually highly informative.
FL-08 - One fruitcake beats another.
FL-24 - Not close.
FL-25 (wrong) - You know, if I would have stuck with what I said about the Cubans six months ago...
ID-01 - Only Sali could lose here.
IL-10 (wrong) - Where were the coattails?
IL-11* - Association with Blago does not equal much, apparently...
IN-03 (wrong) - Not even close, really screwed up here.
MI-07 - One of the few cases this election top of the ticket really hurt.
MI-09 - After 2006, Knollenberg looked really weak.
MN-06 (wrong) - Should have trusted my intuition here, instead of playing it safe.
NC-08 - Not close.
NE-02 (wrong) - Not enough *black* coattails.
NJ-03* - Myers actually had a decent shot at winning.
NM-01* - White sucked as a candidate.
NM-02* - Tinsley sucked worse.
NV-03 - Porter couldn't survive what happened here upballot.
NY-13* - Not close.
NY-25* - Not close.
NY-29 - Expected result in my mind.
OH-15*- Ah, well at least I didn't screw up Ohio this year.  Stivers was killed by the 3rd party.
OH-16* - Expected result in my mind.
PA-03 - English was done a few weeks before the election.
VA-05 - Excellent long-shot call.  I'm proud!
VA-11* - Closer than expected, actually.

GOP PICKUP
FL-16 - Not close.
KS-02 - Excellent call, Spade.  Of course, I suspect Boyda might be finished after the R primary.
PA-11 (wrong) - Barletta was pathetic outside Hazelton.
TX-22 - At least I know my hometown well.

DEM HOLDS (up to 20 seats)
AL-05* - Close.  Danger seat in 2010 will cause incumbent to run to the right, imho.
AZ-05 - Not close.
AZ-08 - Not close.
GA-08 - Black turnout helped immensely.  Marshall will need a lot of luck next time, however.
IN-09 - Not close.
KS-03 - Not close.
KY-03 - Not close.
LA-02 (wrong) - Well, we all missed this one, didn't we.
LA-06 (wrong) - High black turnout doesn't help when 10% siphons off to someone else.  That being said, a decent number of whites here didn't cross parties that needed to.
MS-01 - Not close now.  Watch for any waves in 2010 here, however.
NH-01 - Larger than expected.
NY-20 - Not close.
PA-04 - Not close.
PA-10 - Not close.  Pathetic showing by the R actually.
PA-12 - Like Murtha was ever in *that* much trouble.
TX-23 - Rodriguez dominated along the border.
WI-08 - Gard should hang it up.

GOP HOLDS (up to 60 races)
AL-02 (wrong) - Surprising.
AZ-03* - Why Dems ever wasted money here is beyond me.
CA-03 - Coattails damaged here a bit.
CA-46 - Here too.
CA-50 - Same here.
FL-13 - Not close.
FL-21 - Not close.
IA-04 - Latham performed better than King.  So much for being in trouble.
IL-06 - Coattails?
IL-18* - Not close.
KY-02*- Guthrie won by about as much as I expected.  Doubt Dems have any chance in the future.
LA-04* (runoff) - Fleming should thank Obama.  Seriously...
MD-01* (wrong) - Eastern v. Shore vs. B-more suburbs.  We see who won this time.
MN-03* - Good example of a race where I felt the end result. (it happens every so often)
MO-06 - Barnes may have been the worst "serious" challenger of the year.
MO-09* - Close, but no cigar for Baker.
NJ-05 - Garrett was in trouble?
NJ-07* - Too obvious of a result for Stender.
NV-02 - Heller seemed impervious to any Obama coattails.
NY-26 - Not close.
OH-01 (wrong) - The blacks got Chabot.
OH-02 - Schmidt is much like a cockroach.  Impossible to kill.
PA-06 - Gerlach's weak performance here... 
PA-15 - Not close.
SC-01 - About as close as this will be for a while.
TX-07 - Someone on this forum knows Harris County...
TX-10 - Someone on this forum knows Texas...
VA-02 (wrong) - Drake's collapse here was surprising.  Of course, her survival in 2006 was too.  Weird.
VA-10 - Not close.
WA-08 - Reichert's best performance yet.  Will the leftist loons finally retire Burner.
WV-02 - Not close
WY-AL - Republicans broke for the Republican.

[Sam Spade]

Alright, I'm calling LA-04, because the number of provisionals in these LA races tends to be zilch.  And I want to put this thread to rest (until I update the Senate final calls).