ARG: Sununu one of the most vul senators down 10 pts

[Sam Spade]

Interesting.

Obviously an incumbent at 32% is no good for the incumbent, even against a known challenger.  As this is an ARG poll in NH, the only state where ARG can really be trusted, if any, the poll does have credibility.

However, since it looks to me like the Sununu poll is the same poll as the Bush JA one, the 17% mark lends a good bit of credence that this could be the classic 1 in 20.

Both ARG and SUSA in their NH polling have consistently shown that Bush JA in NH mirrors national Bush JA closely (+ or - a few points here or there, especially in 2006).  I suspect Bush JA at present is somewhere between 33% and 35%.

So, 17% would be clearly way off-kilter with the historical numbers.  It is true that a inaccurate number in Bush JA would not necessarily lead to a inaccurate number in the Sununu poll, but most likely the two would be related somehow.

Also, I sincerely doubt that ARG has changed its methods in polling in order to not push undecideds as much.  Polling is not even the main thing the company who runs ARG does and I still see their classic adherence to state registration numbers.  Chances are that this is another good reason to believe the poll might be the 1 in 20.

Anyway, I would advise waiting before making any conclusions until another couple of polls comes out.  That should help clear up the above questions about the poll.