House Results thread

[Sam Spade]

15% of KY-3 is in; Yarmouth has a three point lead

Problem is with KY-03, without precinct numbers, you don't know what's going on.

[Sam Spade]

37% of KY-3 in. Lead is the same.

Wish I could remember what early precincts usually come in.

[Sam Spade]

Northup ahead by 400 votes, 53% in

[Sam Spade]

Frankly, if you would have told me two nights ago that Pryce, Gerlach, Shays and possibly Wilson would have survived and that Leach, Hart, Gutknecht and Bradley would have fallen, I would have laughed at you.

The wave hit, but it hit at some very odd points.

[Sam Spade]

Btw, I predicted Gerlach would be ahead about three hours ago while looking at the margins and seeing that only Chester County was out.  Not to brag, but nailed that one. 

Bonilla is also headed to a runoff against old Ciro Rodriguez.  He's at 48% right now and I just don't see the numbers left in Val Verde County to make up the 4,500 vote differential he would need to reach 50%.

[Sam Spade]

CNN has the OH-02 race at 100% reporting with Schmidt up about 2,300 votes.  If they're still counting the votes, I'm unaware, though they haven't called the race yet.

[Sam Spade]

Any update on the 11 House seats that still haven't been called? Some of them have 100 percent of the precincts reporting, so I assume they are waiting on absentee or provisional ballots? Any possible recounts?

Most of them could go either way.  Though I expect few changes just because of the numbers involved.

In WA-08, we won't know for about 2 weeks (WA's strange absentee ballot system), but as Alcon pointed out to me last evening, if Weichert leads going into absentee balloting, he'll win, because those ballot are always more GOP than the other ballots.  If he's down by a couple, we'll just have to wait.

[Sam Spade]

I suspect that PA-08 and GA-12 stay with the dems.  The two OH CDs go to the GOP. 

Cubin probably ends up a few hundred votes ahead in WY-AL and probably stays there.  NC-08 and CT-02 will come down to recount, but probably stay where they are.

NM-01 will probably be won by Wilson, but you never can say for sure because the NM Dems have ways of "finding" uncounted votes to push their candidate over the top.

[Sam Spade]

I suspect that PA-08 and GA-12 stay with the dems.  The two OH CDs go to the GOP. 

Pretty safe bet on PA-08...any news of a recount (which will likely not put fitz over the hump)...

I meant to ask you this:  So how did Gerlach survive in your opinion?  When the cycle began a couple of years, he was considered by most experts to be the Republican House incumbent most in danger of losing.  Now, he's one of the few that survived.  What's your explanation?

[Sam Spade]

So LA-02 and TX-23 are going to runoffs, where it looks like Bonilla will win and LA-02 will at least be Democratic.

I think Reichert will survive in WA-08, and the Dems will in GA-12.

OH-02 and OH-15 should stay GOP, I would think. Is there going to be a recount there or what? I think Pryce and Schmidt won more easily than some other contested races out there.

Leaving

CT-02
NC-08
NM-01
PA-08
WY-AL

Where Dems look to take 3 and the GOP the other two. By my count that should be a net Dem gain of 31 seats.

I personally think it'll fall along the 3 GOP, 2 Dem lines the results show now, but this is a minor quibble.  30 as a benchmark seems about right.

[Sam Spade]

Thanks for the explanation, bullmoose.  If he underperformed, it makes a lot of sense to me, actually.  Repeat opponents sometimes don't sit well either.

NM-01 will probably be won by Wilson, but you never can say for sure because the NM Dems have ways of "finding" uncounted votes to push their candidate over the top.

Yes, the local NM officials have a rather dubious reputation for crap like that but I am amazed they couldn't invent a thousand or so more imaginary or dead voters this time around

I'm with you, though if they can't find it, maybe they either didn't care or maybe they'd look too odd. (though that hasn't stopped them before)

Though, if Wilson does win, I'm going to have to crown her the queen of the swing-district battlers.  It's been quite a long while since I've seen someone run a campaign the way she did, winning a race she shouldn't have won in just a godawful environment.  I know she's had some tough races before, but this one was easily the toughest ever, imo.  Her opponent helped, certainly, that one commercial on Madrid's debate performance was, imo, the best ad of the campaign nationally and one of the better Congressional ads I've ever seen from an effectiveness standpoint.

If she ever ran for higher office, I'd hate to have to run against her.

[Sam Spade]

NM-01:
Wilson 102,343
Madrid 100,979

margin = +1,364

[Sam Spade]

Yes, Wilson fought hard for this seat and Madrid sure helped her out. The local Dem hierarchs must be having chest pains right about now something I can well live with. I hope that ad is saved on YouTube or something

I saved the ad on my computer for posterity's sake.

[Sam Spade]

NM-01:
Wilson 102,343
Madrid 100,979

margin = +1,364

New total:

NM-01
Wilson 102,456
Madrid 101,153

margin = +1,303 (-63 votes)

[Sam Spade]

Burner, baby!

"100% of precincts in King County reporting, Darcy Burner is up by about a thousand votes over Rep. Reichert (R) out in WA-8.

(ed.note: Thanks to TPM Reader GT for the tip.)"

Whoa! I thought this race was over already I didnt even know there was a recount going on....

Did Burner really win?!?! I just went to CNN's website and it say that only 59% of precincts have reported.

With WA's absentee ballot system, we're very far off from knowing the winner of the race.

I've also checked the WA SOS website and there's been no change since yesterday.

[Sam Spade]

NM-01:
Wilson 102,343
Madrid 100,979

margin = +1,364

New total:

NM-01
Wilson 102,456
Madrid 101,153

margin = +1,303 (-63 votes)

New total:  (only about 4,000 provisionals are left outstanding)

NM-01
Wilson 104,575
Madrid 102,968

margin = +1,607 (+304 votes)

Wilson's camp has declared victory, though the Madrid camp is saying it's not over yet.  Half of the provisions are usually disqualified historically.

An interesting fact is that about 4,300-5,600 people voted in the Senate and Governor's races, but didn't vote in the House race.  Total, about 39,000 voters voted for Democrats in the Senate and Governor's race and then did not vote for Madrid in the Congressional race.

[Sam Spade]

According to The Hotline, Simmons has gained 105 votes in early recounts, narrowing the margin to 60 votes.  There are many more towns to recount, according to this report.

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/11/ct_02_recount_s.html

[Sam Spade]

Really, when a Democratic candidate in NM files a lawsuit, it means the Republican has won.  Simple enough.

[Sam Spade]

You have to hand it to Heather Wilson, assuming she has actually won.  She just about held on in her Democratic-leaning district, in a hugely Democratic year, withstanding the coat-tails of Richardson's and Bingaman's landslide victories.  I'm impressed.

Probably had to do with the "brain freeze" ad (best ad of the 2006 campaign, other than the YouTube macaca) more than anything else (and Madrid's general incompetance).  Still, she won the race fair and square.

[Sam Spade]

Do you have a link to this "brain freeze" ad?  I wouldn't mind seeing it.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ay_KDtu2DU0

[Sam Spade]

According to the AP, Reichert has been declared the winner in the WA-08 race.

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/politics/story/3418488p-12554564c.html

He leads by roughly 4,727 votes, with a certain amount of absentee ballots left from King and Pierce counties undoubtedly.

Darcy Burner is not conceding as of this moment.

Also, from what I hear, Courtney gained about 40 votes from a miscounting in Lyme, CT, so the lead is up to 107 votes, with about 40% of the townships reporting.

[Sam Spade]

JD Hayworth has conceded.

In other news, with 61 out of 65 towns reporting, Joe Courtney leads Rob Simmons by 91 votes.  The count must be done by this evening.

[Sam Spade]

A couple of more things to add here as of today:

1.  In OH-02, Jean Schmidt (R) has clinched re-election with a 3,200-vote lead, with less than that amount of votes still outstanding.  Wulsin has not conceded yet, but trust me, it's over.  A lot of times in these close races, the losing candidates concede defeat long after they've actually lost, mainly because I think it takes them time to accept that fact.

2.  Gov. Rick Perry announced the date for the runoff in TX-23 as being Tuesday, December 12, roughly under three weeks from now.

Along with LA-02, which is heading to runoff between two Democrats, this leaves three House races still outstanding:

FL-13:  In which Christine Jennings is headed to court claiming that the electronic voting machines did not count votes for her.

NC-08:  Where Robin Hayes leads by 339 votes and Larry Kissell has requested a recount.  I highly doubt will change this result, but a recount in this close of a race is entirely fair.

OH-15:  Where Deborah Pryce leads by roughly 3,000 votes and there's still, I think, about 15-20,000 absentees and provisionals left to count.  We should probably have the final numbers by this weekend.  I doubt this switches either, but it's only fair to wait.

That's about it...

[Sam Spade]

To do some last-minute updating....

Larry Kissell has "unofficially" conceded to Robin Hayes, presumably unless he picks up another 8-10 votes tomorrow, which would be what is necessary to force a hand recount.

http://www.wwaytv3.com/Global/story.asp?S=5747211&nav=menu70_2

In OH-15, a automatic recount is still going on, but with Pryce leading by 1,055 votes, the chances the race switches are close to nil probably.

That would leave FL-13 as the last "open" race, and I think that one, with all the court action, is probably going into next year.