Internal D Hamilton Beattie and Staff: Ford has 2 pt lead on Corker

[Sam Spade]

More proof which leads me to suspect Corker is ahead inside the MOE.

[Sam Spade]

More proof which leads me to suspect Corker is ahead inside the MOE.

^^^^^^^^
At least inside the MOE.

Public polling indicates nothing but that.    

I'd place my money on Corker +2-+3.

[Sam Spade]

The statistical significance of someone being up 2 or 3 is really unimportant until a series of successive polls shows the same result or average as such.  That's what you have in TN and VA.  That means these races are toss-ups, but they are Lean GOP toss-ups (there is a difference)

In MO, I'm simply less sure about because the outlier is M-D.  In NJ, you have it averaging to about about 3-4 point lead, which is just right on the edge between Lean D and Lean Dem toss-up.