Mason-Dixon: Allen (R) increases lead over Webb (D)

[Sam Spade]

One of the reasons why M-D has been showing slightly better results for Republicans has to do with the summer polling factor which affects it much less than other polling companies.  Taking that into account makes it all become much more clear.

[Sam Spade]

There is one thing you forget about M-D just like in MN turnout can overcome a deficit on election day.

True, but remember that Virginia does not have Minnesota's rather lax same-day registration rules.  Neither do most states.

Anyway, even though it was partially true in Minnesota in 2004, it's not that strong of a case to be building on, fyi.

[Sam Spade]

And Zogby was just as good like in 1996 and 2000 when he polled less republicans.

Well, in 2000, I would have trusted Zogby.  In 2004, I would have noticed that his results were getting too erratic and not trusted him.  I do not see this in Mason-Dixon.

Zogby polling fewer Republicans in 1996 and 2000 is interesting, but irrelevant as to why I should not be trusting Mason-Dixon as much as I do now.

Actually, in 1996 Zogby got it right by predicting that more Republicans would turn out than nearly all other polls were saying (except for the Battleground Poll).