California Predictions (user search)
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Author Topic: California Predictions  (Read 3168 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« on: November 05, 2005, 02:51:35 AM »
The polling on all of these has been wacky.  These are merely educated guesses, taking the polling and the likelihood of strange turnout models in a low-turnout election, as this one will be:

Numeric predictions:
73: 52%
74: 47%
75: 48%
76: 39%
77: 42% (this measure would help Democrats gain a couple of CDs in the state, though they would have to moderate a bit)
78: 40%
79: 40%
80: 35%
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2005, 02:52:22 AM »
Should add:

Campbell will win special election with 51% of the vote.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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Posts: 27,547
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2005, 03:20:39 PM »
Quote from: John Ford on November 05, 2005, 03:09:02 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade (GM) on November 05, 2005, 02:52:22 AM
Should add:

Campbell will win special election with 51% of the vote.

Only 51%?  He almost got 51% in the primary.

Ok, it might be a little higher than that, but I've got my reasons why.

The Democrat will get most of Brewer's vote by default and Gilchrest will pull a little under 20%.

I see roughly about a 51%-31%-18% finish.
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