Win.
I profess to being the person who knows the most about his District, except for jimrtex and maybe jmfcst, though I'm not sure.
Nick Lampson is a decent candidate from the past, who won in a swing District and fairly populist District (the former CD9 in Texas) by 59-40% margins in 2000 and 2002 against riff-raff opponents with no funding.
Here's the issues:
#1, I'm pretty sure that not any of his former CD9 (Beaumont, Chambers County, Galveston) is presently in DeLay's new District (circa 2004), and if there is, it's so minor to where it doesn't matter.
#2, He presently doesn't reside in DeLay's District. In order to run there, he would have to move and risk being labeled a carpetbagger. I'm also pretty sure he would be at a significant money dis-advantage in a District that leans about 60-40 Rep. in national elections.
#3, About 2/3rds of that Rep. element in CD22 (DeLay's District) is not populist, but rather extremely conservative, I'm talking about StatesRights conservative. To win over that type of vote takes a lot of winning, if you know what I mean. And to win over the 1/3rds who are not StatesRights-conservative, you still have to try awful hard, as they are still more conservative than I am (think PBrunsel-conservative, maybe 9iron-conservative at best..
As I've said before, polls will fool people easily. Though I think DeLay has lost a little in his District (and I would personally dump him), it is far to assume that he is really that vulnerable.
Democrats need to focus their energies on defining positions and strategies that appeal to mainstream America, not jump on a rather long-shot attempt to turn the tide around in one fell swoop.
Poll
