US House Redistricting: Texas

[Sam Spade]

Okay, last batch.

TX-02 goes from 60% McCain to 64-65% McCain.
TX-07 goes from 58% McCain to 60% McCain.
TX-08 stays the same at 74% McCain.
TX-09 goes from 77% Obama to 74-75% Obama.
TX-14 goes from 66% McCain to 65% McCain.
TX-18 goes from 77% Obama to 79-80% Obama.
TX-22 goes from 58% McCain to 64% McCain.
TX-29 goes from 62% Obama to 66-67% Obama.

Maybe I misread that TX-22.    Ugh.

[Sam Spade]

I really doubt this map will pass muster with the DOJ.  It only creates a net of one new Hispanic majority district, and splits up Hispanic communities in Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston that could be used to create at least two more Hispanic majority districts. 

The DFW Hispanic district is the issue.  I've looked at the numbers, and I haven't found a way to create a second Hispanic district in Houston other than the touch-point thing krazen mentioned way back.  The Hispanics are simply too spread out, and it would come at the expense of Al Green anyway.

[Sam Spade]

I really doubt this map will pass muster with the DOJ.  It only creates a net of one new Hispanic majority district, and splits up Hispanic communities in Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston that could be used to create at least two more Hispanic majority districts. 

The DFW Hispanic district is the issue.  I've looked at the numbers, and I haven't found a way to create a second Hispanic district in Houston other than the touch-point thing krazen mentioned way back.  The Hispanics are simply too spread out, and it would come at the expense of Al Green anyway.

You obviously didn't see the Maldef map that connected the NE Houston and NW Houston portions of TX-18 via a one block strip through North Houston.  This lets TX-29 connect east and SE Houston with the southern part of North Houston via downtown, while TX-18 also connects to the 3rd Ward.  The new Hispanic district then takes in the northern part of North Houston and wraps over the top of both parts northern arms of TX-18 so it can get to Channelview, Spring Branch and Gulfton.

BTW, the legislature is back in special session because they didn't finish with budget, and Governor Perry has added redistricting to the call.

It's actually the Hardy Toll Road - for at least a mile.  When I saw that, I decided not to take the map seriously because there's no way that withstands court scrutiny.

[Sam Spade]

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/?PlanHeader=PLANC130

New plan is out. They fixed the 36th. Put Ted Poe into a somewhat uncomfortable district. Dallas is unchanged.

Someone needs to bang it into their heads that Kevin Brady needs to be the guy to snag downtown Houston.

At a quick glance, Poe's CD is probably still 60% McCain - there's still far too much north Harris county. More importantly for the GOP, McCaul gets more north Houston, so his % should be helped.

The CD that will lose GOP % with the change should be Ron Paul's CD upon my quick glance.

[Sam Spade]

The case worth making (on the Congressional side, at least) is on the DFW Hispanic seat. Arguments with regards to TX-23 are likely to be a lot of nitpicking over very little and I really don't see how you make the argument that TX-34 is not a valid substitute for TX-27.  What is the argument to make for a required Corpus Christi-Brownsville CD, exactly? 

The Austin-San Antonio Hispanic seat is really the only other new Hispanic-opportunity seat that you can create, and I think that the correct argument is that "if this has been created and mandated, which it probably is, then so should a DFW seat."  Certainly one can create more Democratic seats, but they're not going to be Hispanic-opportunity seats (they may be over 50% VAP, but what is that, like 35% voting population max), because white Democrats will likely win, so what is the point in trying to defend the Austin seat, because you can't create a Hispanic opportunity seat there right now.

Or something like this.

[Sam Spade]

So, it will basically end up being a 23-13 or 24-12 map.  The real toss-up seat is the Canseco one, but Dems will need to run the right candidate (Gallegos would be the correct choice).  McCaul's seat is too partisanly divided (as well as geographically divided) for Dems to have a chance there, for now.

The obvious mistake the GOP made again was to not draw a Hispanic district in DFW.  That being said, what the court did in Dallas really makes no sense.  I would be surprised in the GOP doesn't realize its mistake this time and correct in 2013.  As for the rest of the map, the protection of Doggett will probably be addressed by the GOP in 2013.  As said many times here, the correct road to go would have been 25-11 (Canseco would always have some issues, so 24-12), but draw a Hispanic district or two looking towards the future.

[Sam Spade]

So, it will basically end up being a 23-13 or 24-12 map.  The real toss-up seat is the Canseco one, but Dems will need to run the right candidate (Gallegos would be the correct choice).  McCaul's seat is too partisanly divided (as well as geographically divided) for Dems to have a chance there, for now.

The obvious mistake the GOP made again was to not draw a Hispanic district in DFW.  That being said, what the court did in Dallas really makes no sense.  I would be surprised in the GOP doesn't realize its mistake this time and correct in 2013.  As for the rest of the map, the protection of Doggett will probably be addressed by the GOP in 2013.  As said many times here, the correct road to go would have been 25-11 (Canseco would always have some issues, so 24-12), but draw a Hispanic district or two looking towards the future.

Only if there is a Republican president.  There won't be any mid-decade redistricting in the South if Obama's DOJ has any say in it.

Obama would probably preclear it anyway.  The Obama DOJ had a chance to force new black majority districts in Alabama and South Carolina, but for whatever reason, they chose not to.  Its almost like Obama doesnt care about having a Dem House. 

One of the things that I think is likely in the back of the mind of any DOJ official right now is the fact that preclearance may not be long for this world.  Go read Northwest Austin Municipal Utility District No. 1 v. Holder, which basically ignores the constitutional arguments, in connection with other recent Section 5 jurisprudence, and you see that five Justices are pretty far down along the road of striking down this section.  A questionable use may be all they need, really.

That being said, the stronger arguments for denying preclearance based in precedence were not in Alabama (really weak) and South Carolina (well, South Carolina would been ok, except Clyburn would have never supported it), but rather in Louisiana and Virginia.  Problem is that the arguments there are still not that strong.

Anyway, the Texas GOP screwed up royally in not creating a Dallas Hispanic CD, and then going to the three-judge panel and not the DOJ.

[Sam Spade]

Very unusual ruling, as the Court basically gave the Texas lawyers the more extreme remedy that they had asked for, i.e. take on the cases and issue a prompt ruling, as opposed to merely issuing a stay.

It should also be noted that the Court did not change the filing deadlines.  Since the main filing deadline occurs before the case will be heard, meaning that where exactly to file is completely unknown, it suggests to me that the most likely ruling is that the Court will throw out the San Antonio court's maps, present a ruling on the main issue (discussed below), tell the Court to come up with maps the meet the new standards and change the filing dates.  But we shall see.

The main issue, btw, will likely relate to the issue raised in the dissent to the San Antonio court's maps, namely the Court's decision in the 1982 case of Upham v. Seamon, that strictly limits the power of a federal court to craft its own interim redistricting plan that deviates greatly from one drafted by a state legislature.  It appears that the Court took this argument seriously.  Basically, unless something more surprising happens, the Court will only be ruling on the validity of the San Antonio court’s decision to draw up interim maps of its own.

[Sam Spade]

Looking at the map, the changes to CD-23 are as follows.  The El Paso section gets a lot more Democratic and Hispanic, as well as gaining a lot of population, and most of Ciro's south side precincts in San Antonio are excised.  That being said, the most black areas of CD-23 remain, and the areas added have a larger black contingent than most of San Antonio (towards the west).  Frio and part of LaSalle are added, but that adds very few votes. 

Anyway, swing district.  I don't think the changes are really that positive for Republicans under the surface, though it is unlikely a San Antonio Dem will run there. 

The rest of the map is 24-11 safe, so who cares.

[Sam Spade]

J.M. Lozano (District 43 in the House) switched parties from Democrat to Republican today.

Though the change being given is discussions with George P. Bush, the change in his House district explains things better, as it went from being 53% Obama to being 51% McCain in the new map.

Of course, as I remember, Jose Aliseda (District 35 in the House) is from Bee County, so there might well be a primary.

http://www2.wnct.com/news/2012/mar/05/texas-house-democrat-lozano-becoming-a-republican-ar-2006613/