PREDICTIONS THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Sam Spade]

Just gonna comment on what I care about...

Connecticut - it's been a bit of a rocky ride for Blumenthal - certainly not the easy victory that seemed so certain early on - but defeat seems out of the question. In fact, he ought to win pretty comfortably. A surprisingly narrow win is possible and would be an indication of serious problems for his party. Obviously.

Delawhere? - Coons will win, obviously. I suspect this will either be a blowout or surprisingly - disturbingly - close. But this is really just the epilogue. The actual story is over.

I tend to agree with this a lot.  But my own suspicions are that the big spenders tend to overpoll and the nuts tend to underpoll - henceforth why I have McMahon and O'Donnell losing by the same margins (one in line with all polling, the other in line only with a few).  Of course, watch me be completely wrong.

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Toomey winning by more than 5 would signal disaster for Dems, I agree. (i.e. the 70+seat disaster in the House becomes a 50-50 proposition at that point imo).

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There is going to be nothing more enjoyable that watching Crist go down hard Tuesday.  And then rubbing it in other people's faces when we were both right...   He may be one of the most despicable people in politics I've seen. 

I agree completely about Kentucky and WV, but see no reason to quote mindlessly.

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I agree 100%

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You do realize that most of the people who will vote have already voted in both of these elections.    I'd personally be shocked if Angle went down at this point - I don't think Reid can pull that many voters out (though they may exist in NV).

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I've gotten Alaska wrong so many times I'm almost feeling like giving up, but I won't.

[Sam Spade]

You missed IN-2, Al.

[Sam Spade]

Enjoy laughing, Al...

[Sam Spade]

With Colorado - there was a huge gender gap in the exit polling (over 30 pts) - just something you're alluding to.

[Sam Spade]

With Colorado - there was a huge gender gap in the exit polling (over 30 pts) - just something you're alluding to.

I'd not checked that, but it doesn't come as a shock.

I guess Bucks did well with rapists?

54% of Colorado males are rapists?

[Sam Spade]

In terms of total pickups projected, I was off by one in the Senate and (it's looking like) one in the House.

I, as your compared to your 1-1, was O-3. Guess which body I got the "0" in? 

The House (which would be more impressive)?

Yes, that is my opinion anyway. Actually, I just got lucky. Predicting the House was extremely difficult this time.

Yep.  As usual, my predictions were so-so. 

However, I was actually quite impressed with the actual House ratings I gave.  They were close to being dead-on accurate, as demonstrated by cinyc's map on election night.

I intend on using my formula again for figuring things out come 2012, since it really showed its worth this time around.

[Sam Spade]

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