But much of the 51% the House GOP won is concentrated in different areas to the 51% that Bush won. The similarity is really only the topline figures.
Very true. But this similarities between these numbers in the past 4 presidential elections and the past 3 offyear elections from 1992 forward are almost too distinct to ignore.
Some other numbers:
Before 1992
1988
House popular vote: Dems 53-Reps 46
Presidential vote: Reps 53-Dems 46
1990
House popular vote: Dems 53-Reps 46
1992 and after
1992
House popular vote: Dems 51-Reps 46
Presidential vote: Dems 43-Reps 37 (Ind. 19)
1994
House popular vote: Reps 52-Dems 45
1996
House popular vote: Dems 49-Reps 49
Presidential vote: Dems 49-Reps 41 (Ind. 9)
1998
House popular vote: Reps 49-Dems 48
2000
House popular vote: Reps 49-Dems 48
Presidential vote: Dems 48-Reps 48 (Ind. 3)
2002
House popular vote: Reps 51-Dems 46
2004
House popular vote: Reps 51-Dems 47
Presidential vote: Reps 51-Dems 48
Michael Barone has noted this trend more than any other political analyst, specifically in his book "The Almanac of American Politics", where he coincides this trend with the decline of the split-ticket voting that had dominated the 1970s and the 1980s and a move towards straight-ticket voting which occurred in the 1990s and continues.
Based on the results of this previous election, it appears that this trend of straight-ticket voting is not declining, but rather increasing, especially when you look internally at different regions of the country, whether it be the Coasts, the Heartland, the South or the Mountain West.
The real question is whether this slight Republican advantage we've seen in the past two elections will continue and whether it will grow any.
